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Oil market still set to tighten in second half of 2024 – UBS

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Investing.com – The major energy agencies have all recently made revisions to the likely oil balances this year and next, but they still point to the crude market tightening in the second half of 2024, according to UBS.

These revisions included a bearish update from the International Energy Agency, seeing lower demand growth, a bullish update from the Energy Information Administration, with higher demand, and a neutral one from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

“With the extension of the OPEC+ voluntary cuts, the IEA and EIA see market tightness persisting for the rest of the year assuming that OPEC+ production will increase only marginally,” analysts at UBS said, in a note dated June 18.

The agencies made mixed revisions to demand growth forecasts this month: the IEA cut forecasts, the EIA raised and OPEC left them unchanged again.

The IEA’s downward revision was driven by weaker OECD and base effects, while the EIA also noted lackluster OECD demand, but raised forecasts on increased bunker fuel demand caused by Red Sea disruptions. 

With this in mind, “we marginally cut demand growth estimates to 1.1Mb/d in 2024 and 1.0Mb/d in 2025,” UBS said.

Turning to supply, the agencies kept their non-OPEC+ supply forecasts broadly unchanged, except for the EIA’s 2024 growth estimates, up 0.1 million barrels a day (b/d) on better-than-expected U.S. supply in 1H24.

Additionally, despite OPEC+’s announced plan to gradually phase out its voluntary cuts potentially as early as October 2024, we continue to model the first return of OPEC+ barrels in the second quarter of 2025 when market balances should allow for a gradual ramp-up.

In the very near term, UBS expects to rebound to the mid to high-$80s, supported by the OPEC+ cuts extension and the seasonal rebound in demand. 

Brent is then set to move to $80/bbl next year as OPEC+ starts to bring back production gradually from the second quarter. 

“We do expect a negative impact on oil demand from slower GDP growth and higher prices but continue to expect demand to grow until the late 2020s,” UBS said.

Rising efficiency and EVs’ increasing impact should see demand growth slow down sharply though, to around 0.5Mb/d within 3-4 years and peak oil by 2029. Despite this demand slowdown, we expect global spare capacity to remain stable at an average level by historical standards as supply growth slows down too. 

In the near term, we see the main upside risks coming from more restricted supply. 

“Extended OPEC+ cuts and potentially a larger drop in Russian production, combined with robust demand could lift Brent above $90/bbl in the near-term in our view. Further escalation in the Middle East and disruption to supply could send it closer to $100/bbl,” UBS added.

The bank’s downside scenario assumes a greater negative impact on oil demand from a global economic slowdown to the tune of around 1.0Mb/d versus its forecasts. 

“Combined with a reduced geopolitical risk premium, this could see Brent prices drop below our long-term oil price of $75/bbl.”

 

Commodities

Labor dispute stops Canadian canola oil, forestry exports from West Coast

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By Ed White

(Reuters) – Canada’s exports of canola oil and forest products from West Coast ports have halted due to a labor dispute, producers said on Thursday.

The stoppage, which started on Monday (NASDAQ:), involves limited strike action by the longshore foremen and a full lockout of Local 514 of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union by the B.C. Maritime Employers Association.

While bulk grain shipments are exempt from the British Columbia action, canola oil and forestry products are not covered by that federal labor code provision and are not being loaded onto ships at Pacific ports.

Based on the market price of canola oil, each day without shipments represents C$4 million in lost revenue, said Chris Vervaet, the executive director of the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association, which says it represents about 95% of Canada’s canola and soybean crush capacity.

“We really implore the government to get involved and really help both sides to a resolution.”

Federal Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon has said both sides have a responsibility to reach an agreement. On Thursday he criticized the lack of apparent progress between the union and employers as well as a smaller shutdown affecting some container traffic at the Port of Montreal.

“Both sets of talks are progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved,” said MacKinnon in a post on social media platform X.

Vervaet said Canada exports about one million metric tons of canola oil through the Port of Vancouver yearly.

Canada is the world’s top exporter of the oilseed, and canola oil is the most valuable part of the crop.

© Reuters. International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 members and supporters march to the Port of Vancouver amid a labour dispute, in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada November 8, 2024. REUTERS/Jennifer Gauthier

The Forest Products Association of Canada also called for federal government intervention.

Wood, pulp, paper and byproduct shipments by the organization’s members make up about 17% of Vancouver’s container exports and 14% of Montreal’s.

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Commodities

Oil slips as investors digest US election fallout

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By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil slipped on Thursday, extending a sell-off triggered by the U.S. presidential election, as a strong dollar and lower crude imports in China outweighed supply risks from a Trump presidency and output cuts caused by Hurricane Rafael.

Donald Trump’s election win initially triggered a sell-off that pushed oil down more than $2 as the dollar rallied. But crude prices later pared losses to settle at a less than 1% decline by the end of Wednesday’s session.

futures fell 63 cents, or 0.8%, to $74.29 a barrel by 1253 GMT on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 73 cents, or 1%, to $70.96.

Downside factors include a strong dollar and sluggish demand, while upside pressures come from potentially increased sanctions on Iran and Venezuela under Trump, as well as conflict in the Middle East, said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

“Some of these potential drivers will have no impact in the foreseeable future, but they all add up to the current narrative leading to rangebound trading,” he said.

“Absent any major geopolitical escalation, the short-term outlook leans toward downside risk in my opinion.”

The dollar held near four-month highs on Thursday as investors prepared for several central bank decisions, including from the U.S. Federal Reserve. A strong dollar makes oil more expensive for other currency holders and tends to weigh on prices.

“Historically, Trump’s policies have been pro-business, which likely supports overall economic growth and increases demand for fuel,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. “However, any interference in the Fed’s easing policies could lead to further challenges for the oil market.”

Further downward pressure came from data showing that crude oil imports in China fell 9% in October – the sixth consecutive month showing a year-on-year decline – as well as from a rise in inventories.

Trump is expected to reimpose his “maximum pressure policy” of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. That could cut supply by as much as 1 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Energy Aspects estimates.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

In his first term, Trump also put in place harsher sanctions on Venezuelan oil. Those measures were briefly rolled back by the Biden administration but later reinstated.

Actual, rather than feared, supply cuts also lent support. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, about 17% of crude output or 304,418 bpd has been shut because of Hurricane Rafael, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.

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Commodity prices fall after Donald Trump elected US President

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By Naveen Thukral, Emily Chow and Nina Chestney

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) -Commodities from oil and gas to metals and grains dropped on Wednesday as the dollar rallied and victory for Republican Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election stoked concerns about tariffs and economic growth.

Trump recaptured the White House by securing more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency, following a campaign of dark rhetoric that deepened the polarization in the country.

Oil prices fell by more than 1% on pressure from the U.S. dollar rally, which was set for its biggest one-day rise since March 2023 against major peers. [USD/]

Investors believe Trump’s presidency will bolster the dollar as interest rates may need to remain high to combat inflation that would stem from new tariffs.

A stronger U.S. dollar makes greenback-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Precious metals also fell, with gold sliding to a near three-week low, while lost more than 2%, making it the worst performer of the base metals complex.

“Gold will be torn between the risk of rising inflation, potentially slowing the pace of U.S. rate cuts, as tariffs are rolled out and continued demand for safe haven assets,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

Commodity prices started to fall overnight as traders started to price in the likelihood of a Trump win.

“This scenario is expected to bring about the promised tariffs on imported goods, particularly targeting China, potentially triggering a new wave of trade tensions and economic disruptions,” Hansen added.

However, Trump could renew sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, removing oil barrels from the market, which would be bullish, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Iran exports about 1.3 million barrels per day.

Benchmark European gas prices also fell by nearly 3% amid concerns about gas supplies and Trump’s stance on the Middle East conflict and Russia-Ukraine war.

China’s industrial metals and steel industries could face headwinds as Trump has pledged to impose blanket 60% tariffs on Chinese goods to boost U.S. manufacturing.

“China’s steel prices will undertake more downward pressure if Trump wins the election, and domestic steelmakers may face even more severe losses,” said Ge Xin, deputy director at Lange Steel Research Centre. 

“This is because Trump will be more aggressive in terms of measures against China.”

The copper market was pricing in the possible roll-back of U.S. electrification initiatives, including subsidies for electric vehicles, which would dampen demand.

Agricultural commodities were also hit, with soybean futures in particular trading lower. Wheat and corn were seen as less exposed to renewed trade tensions with China.

A stronger dollar makes U.S. grain more expensive overseas, while tariffs proposed by Trump could disrupt U.S. agricultural trade, with soybeans particularly reliant on sales to leading importer China.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Soybean plants begin to show signs of growth at Mark Tuttle's soy farm in Somonauk, Illinois, U.S., May 30, 2024.  REUTERS/Jim Vondruska/File Photo

There are also fears that China could respond with retaliatory measures, potentially reducing U.S. exports of key crops and creating downward pressure on prices.

Shares in European clean energy companies also fell as Trump has vowed to scrap offshore wind projects through an executive order on his first day in office.

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