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Commodities

Oil output inches up at top US shale firms, with faster growth elusive

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Oil output inches up at top US shale firms, with faster growth elusive
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Chevron fracking site near Midland, Texas, U.S. August 22, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo

By Arathy Somasekhar

HOUSTON (Reuters) – Top U.S. shale oil producers are raising output by pulling more from each well but lack the level of activity to add significant new volumes, a Reuters analysis of investor forecasts showed.

The companies that a decade ago upended global oil and gas markets and turned the U.S. into an oil-export powerhouse in recent years have been less of a factor because of a shift to maintain, but not significantly expand, their production.

Favoring earnings over higher production has helped U.S. companies deliver strong profits with modest volume increases. The OPEC producer group’s cuts have helped keep prices above $70 a barrel for most of the year.

U.S. producers expect to inch production higher for the rest of the year, according to second-quarter forecasts, by squeezing more oil and gas from each well. The gains will add 850,000 barrels per day (bpd) to production, according to U.S. estimates.

Executives at top shale producers say they have fine-tuned their production techniques to push volumes 2% higher in the next six months with little effort.

“We’ve got a very efficient machine running … we will see growth, we anticipate, even at maintaining flat activity levels,” said Dominic Macklon, an executive at the third-largest Permian shale producer ConocoPhillips (NYSE:).

Since January, ConocoPhillips has upped its full-year production outlook by about 30,000 bpd to up to 1.81 million bpd. Hess Corp (NYSE:), which drills in the Bakken shale in North Dakota, has raised its 2023 Bakken output target by 10,000 bpd, or about 6%.

Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:), the second-largest shale producer, also raised its estimate of full-year output by about 3% despite cutting one drilling rig and paring its budget.

LONGER WELLS, LOWER COSTS

Pioneer’s average well productivity is running about 12% higher than 2022 levels, it said, crediting longer wells and lower costs for fracking.

Top Permian shale producer Chevron (NYSE:) expects its production in the Texas/New Mexico basin to jump 10% this year on better well placement and applying more frac sand to ooze oil out faster from each well.

Most analysts remain skeptical shale gains can outrun the well decline rates over the long term without a sharp boost in drilling activity. Shale output typically declines by 50% in the first three years, and active U.S. drilling rigs are down to 659, the lowest since March 2022.

“We expect pretty moderate growth due to operator discipline and constraints on the oilfield service side,” said Chetan Sharma, a senior associate with energy technology firm Enverus.

Significant growth will require a reversal of rig count declines and a stronger response to upticks in oil prices, Sharma added. U.S. oil futures traded this week above $82 a barrel, helped by OPEC’s cuts, after starting the year at about $80 a barrel.

Smaller shale producers this year have pushed up their production in the hopes of attracting suitors, but that may have reached its limit with a surge in mergers and acquisitions last quarter, Enverus said.

 

 

Commodities

Factbox-How investors buy gold and what drives the market

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(Reuters) – Gold hit a record high above $2,600 per ounce on Friday, as the prospect of more U.S. interest rate cuts and global geo-political uncertainty boosted its appeal.

Bullion has risen more than 26% so far this year, and as market bulls lock in further gains, another milestone of $3,000 per ounce is in focus.

Here are the different avenues for investing in gold:

SPOT MARKET

Large buyers and institutional investors usually buy gold from big banks. Prices in the spot market are determined by real-time supply and demand dynamics.

London is the most influential hub for the market, largely because of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). The LBMA sets standards for gold trading and provides a framework for the OTC (over-the-counter) market, facilitating trades among banks, dealers, and institutions.

China, India, the Middle East and the United States are other major gold trading centres.

FUTURES MARKET

Investors can also get exposure to gold via futures exchanges, where people buy or sell a particular commodity at a fixed price on a particular date in future.

COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc), a part of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), is the largest market in terms of trading volumes.

Shanghai Futures Exchange, China’s leading commodities exchange, also offers gold futures contracts. The Tokyo Commodity exchange, popularly known as TOCOM, is another big player in the Asian gold market.

EXCHANGE TRADED PRODUCTS

Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) issue securities backed by physical metal and allow people to gain exposure to the underlying gold prices without taking delivery of the metal itself. [GOL/ETF]

ETFs have become a major category of investment demand for the precious metal.

Global physically backed gold ETFs attracted a fourth consecutive month of inflows in August after North American and Europe-listed funds increased holdings, the World Gold Council (WGC) said.

BARS AND COINS

Retail consumers can buy gold from metals traders selling bars and coins in an outlet or online. Both gold bars and coins are effective means of investing in physical gold.

DRIVERS:

INVESTORS AND MARKET SENTIMENT

Rising interest from investment funds in recent years has been a major factor behind bullion’s price moves.

Sentiment driven by market trends, news, and global events can also lead to speculative buying or selling of gold.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

Gold is a popular hedge against currency market volatility. It has traditionally moved in the opposite direction to the U.S. dollar as weakness in the U.S. unit makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for holders of other currencies and vice versa.

MONETARY POLICIES AND POLITICAL TENSIONS

The precious metal is widely considered a “safe haven”, bought during uncertain times in a flight to quality.

Major geopolitical events, such as extended conflicts in the Middle East and Europe have added to uncertainties for global investors and burnished gold’s appeal.

Policy decisions from global central banks also influence gold’s trajectory. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, since it pays no interest.

Gold’s latest rally was triggered after the U.S. Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with an outsized half-percentage-point cut on Wednesday.

CENTRAL BANK GOLD RESERVES

Central banks hold gold as part of their reserves. Buying or selling of the metal by the banks can influence prices.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo

Central bank demand has been robust in recent years because of ongoing macroeconomic and political uncertainty, analysts have said.

More central banks plan to add to their gold reserves within a year despite high prices for the precious metal, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in its annual survey in June.

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Commodities

Oil prices drift lower, but set for weekly gains after hefty Fed cut

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Investing.com– Oil prices retreated Friday, but were still headed for a weekly gain as a bumper U.S. interest rate cut helped quell some fears of slowing demand. 

At 08:20 ET (12:20 GMT),  fell 0.6% to $74.47 a barrel, while dropped 0.5% to $70.79 a barrel. 

Oil heads for weekly gains on rate cut cheer 

Crude prices have staged a strong recovery from near three-year lows hit earlier in September, with a bulk of their rebound coming this week as the dollar retreated on a by the Federal Reserve.

was trading up about 3.95% this week, while WTI futures were up 4.4%. 

Increased tensions in the Middle East also aided crude, after Israel allegedly exploded pagers and walkie talkies belonging to Hezbollah members, sparking vows of retaliation. Fighting in and around Gaza also continued. 

A softer aided crude prices after the Fed cut interest rates by the top end of market expectations and announced an easing cycle, which traders bet will help spur economic growth in the coming quarters.

Lower rates usually bode well for economic activity, which in turn is expected to buoy crude demand. 

China demand concerns persist 

But China remained a key point of contention for crude markets, as economic readings from the world’s biggest oil importer showed little signs of improvement. 

The People’s Bank of China kept unchanged on Friday, despite mounting calls on Beijing to unlock more stimulus for the economy.

Data released earlier in September showed Chinese refinery output slowed for a fifth straight month in August, while the country’s oil imports also remained mostly weak. 

Concerns over China dragged oil prices to a near three-year low earlier this month, and have limited any major recovery in crude.

“China has obviously been the key concern when it comes to demand, but there have also been reports of refiners in Europe cutting run rates due to poor margins,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Commodities

Oil prices set to end week higher after US rate cut

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By Arunima Kumar

(Reuters) -Oil prices eased on Friday, but were on track to register gains for a second straight week following a large cut in U.S. interest rates and declining global stockpiles.

Brent futures were down 50 cents, or 0.67%, at $74.38 a barrel at 1004 GMT while U.S. WTI crude futures fell 48 cents, or 0.65%, at $71.47.

Still, both benchmarks were up 3.7% and 4% respectively on the week.

Prices have been recovering after Brent fell below $69 for the first time in nearly three years on Sept. 10.

“U.S. interest cuts have supported risk sentiment, weakened the dollar and supported crude this week,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

“However, it takes time until rate cuts support economic activity and oil demand growth,” he added, regarding crude’s more muted performance so far on Friday.

Prices rose more than 1% on Thursday following the U.S. central bank’s decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday.

Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand, but some also see it as a sign of a weak U.S. labour market.

The Fed also projected a further half-point rate cut by year-end, a full point next year and a half-point trim in 2026.

“Easing monetary policy helped reinforce expectations that the U.S. economy will avoid a downturn,” ANZ Research analysts said.

Also supporting prices were a decline in inventories, which fell to a one-year low last week. [EIA/S]

A counter-seasonal oil market deficit of around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) will support prices in the $70 to $75 a barrel range during the next quarter, Citi analysts said on Thursday, but added prices could plunge in 2025.

Crude prices were also being supported by rising tensions in the Middle East. Walkie-talkies used by Lebanese armed group Hezbollah exploded on Wednesday following similar explosions of pagers the previous day.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A pump jack drills oil crude from the Yates Oilfield in West Texas’s Permian Basin, near Iraan, Texas, U.S., March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo

Security sources have said the Israeli spy agency Mossad was responsible, but Israeli officials have not commented on the attacks.

China’s slowing economy also weighed on market sentiment, with refinery output in China slowing for a fifth month in August and industrial output growth hitting a five-month low.

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