Commodities
Oil posts 3% weekly gains on positive economic data, rate cut hopes
By Arathy Somasekhar
HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices settled higher on Friday and notched over 3.5% in weekly gains as positive economic data and signals from Fed policymakers that they could cut interest rates as early as September eased demand concerns, while fears of a widening Middle East conflict continue to raise supply risks.
futures settled 50 cents up, or 0.6%, at $79.66 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 65 cents, or 0.9%, to $76.84. both benchmarks.
Brent gained more than 3.5% in the week, while WTI rose more than 4%.
“Crude is in a recovery mode … as geopolitical tensions still seem to be a positive factor, and on-again off-again recession fears have calmed a bit, at least for now,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.
A trio of Federal Reserve policymakers indicated on Thursday that they were more confident that inflation is cooling enough to cut rates. A bigger-than-expected fall in U.S. jobless claims data also helped to underpin the recovery.
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, suggesting that fears the labor market is unraveling were overblown and that the gradual softening in the labor market remains intact.
Also offering support was China’s consumer price index, which rose last month at a slightly faster than expected rate, statistics bureau data showed.
“Positive momentum was further reinforced by Chinese inflation numbers that exceeded expectations. In this context, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the price per barrel testing the $80 level,” said Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades.
“The price per barrel has benefited from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have fuelled fears of a potential conflict that could disrupt the region’s output and reduce the global supply of crude,” Veyret added.
Israeli forces stepped up airstrikes across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, killing at least 40 people, Palestinian medics said, in further battles with Hamas-led militants.
The killing last week of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah had raised the possibility of retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel, stoking concerns over oil supply from the world’s largest producing region.
Iran-aligned Houthi militants have also continued attacks on international shipping near Yemen in solidarity with Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas.
Leaders of the United States, Egypt and Qatar on Thursday called on Israel and Hamas to meet for negotiations on Aug. 15 in order to finalize a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict also continued as Moscow moved extra tanks, artillery and rocket systems to its southern Kursk region on Friday as it battled for the fourth straight day to end a shock incursion by Ukrainian forces.
Meanwhile, the , which measures the currency against six others, was down 0.136% at 103.14 following three days of gains. A weaker greenback helps demand as oil becomes cheaper for foreign buyers.
Lending further support to prices, Libya’s National Oil Corp declared force majeure at its Sharara oilfield from Wednesday, adding that it had gradually reduced the field’s output because of protests.
However, U.S. oil rigs, an indicator of future production, rose by three to 485 this week.
Money managers cut their net long futures and options positions in the week to August 6, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.
Commodities
Oil prices held down by Trump tariff uncertainty
By Paul Carsten
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices were little changed on Thursday, maintaining the previous session’s losses on uncertainty over how U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies would affect global economic growth and energy demand.
futures dipped 2 cents to $78.98 a barrel by 0941 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) lost 4 cents to $75.40.
“Oil markets have given back some recent gains due to mixed drivers,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova.
“Key factors include expectations of increased U.S. production under President Trump’s pro-drilling policies and easing geopolitical stress in Gaza, lifting fears of further escalation in supply disruption from key producing regions.”
The broader economic implications of U.S. tariffs could further dampen global oil demand growth, she added.
Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine.
He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs and impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. On China, Trump said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty because fentanyl is being sent from there to the United States.
On Monday he declared a national energy emergency intended to provide him with the authority to reduce environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure and projects and ease permitting for new transmission and pipeline infrastructure.
There will be “more potential downward choppy movement in the oil market in the near term due to the Trump administration’s lack of clarity on trade tariffs policy and impending higher oil supplies from the U.S.”, OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said in an email.
On the U.S. oil inventory front, crude stocks rose by 958,000 barrels in the week ended Jan. 17, according to sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.23 million barrels and distillate stocks climbed by 1.88 million barrels, they said. [API/S]
Commodities
Morning Bid: Stocks hover near new records, oil ebbs
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After a frenetic first three days of the new Donald Trump presidency, buoyant Wall Street stocks hovered near new record highs – gradually turning attention back to a punchy corporate earnings season and economic updates.
Wednesday’s tech-led jump in U.S. equity indexes, infused by Trump’s plan to boost investment in artificial intelligence and impressive Netflix (NASDAQ:) results, saw the clock a new intraday record and volatility gauges subside to the lowest of the year so far.
Stock index futures stepped back a touch overnight and Treasury yields ticked higher in the renewed “risk on” environment, despite brisk demand for the latest sale of 20-year bonds on Wednesday.
One of the background features of the week so far has been how heavy sovereign debt sales across developed markets have been met with robust orders from investors – easing some early-year fears about government funding. Aside from the 20-year bond sale, bond auctions in Britain, France and elsewhere have been gobbled up by fixed income funds.
Benign inflation readings from the United States, Canada and Europe have helped and, at 46 basis points, the estimated “term premium” embedded in 10-year Treasuries has slipped back to its smallest of the year.
Also helping has been the retreat in oil prices to two-week lows, in part due to Trump’s pro-drilling push. On Monday the new president declared a national energy emergency, aimed at giving him the authority to reduce environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure and projects and ease permitting for new transmission and pipeline builds.
TRUMP TALKS TO DAVOS
There was not much new on Trump’s new tariff push overnight. Despite statements on possible new tariffs on China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico prior pledges on “Day One” hikes have not materialised – leaving the issue lingering over the weeks ahead.
Instead on Wednesday, Trump turned his attention to Russia, saying he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Moscow if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine.
All eyes will be on Trump’s virtual appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos at 11:00 a.m. ET.
On Wall Street, Thursday brings a return of economic updates after a data-starved week so far, and weekly jobless claims numbers will be watched closely again later, with the first sweep of January business surveys also about to unfold.
The day’s earnings diary is topped by Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:) and General Electric (NYSE:), with markets now bracing for next week’s updates from Big Tech megacaps of the so-called Magnificent Seven.
Overseas, Chinese stocks perked up a bit after Beijing announced further measures on Wednesday to bolster the market there – although tariff threats limited any gains.
Under the plan jointly released by six financial regulators including the securities regulator, big state-owned insurance companies will be directed to raise the size and proportion of their investments in Chinese A-shares traded on the mainland and equity funds.
But overseas appetite for China risk looks tentative at best. More than half the American businesses in China, the most in five years, say they are concerned about a further deterioration in the bilateral relationship between the world’s two largest economies, a survey published on Thursday showed.
In Europe, stocks also retained much of their gains to new records – with another European Central Bank interest rate cut next week now widely expected and ECB officials seemingly comfortable with market pricing for more cuts.
A more hawkish Norwegian central bank held its key policy rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected.
The dollar traded in narrow ranges against major peers.
Japan’s yen was flat at 156.49 per dollar with markets pricing 96% odds of a quarter-point Bank of Japan hike on Friday and seemingly now comfortable with the latest tightening after months of trepidation about the move.
With another month of sub-target inflation recorded last month, the Bank of Canada is also seen as likely to reduce rates by a quarter point next Wednesday
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:
* U.S. weekly jobless claims, Kansas City Federal Reserve’s January business survey; euro zone January consumer confidence; Canada November retail sales
* U.S. corporate earnings: Texas Instruments, General Electric, CSX (NASDAQ:), Northern Trust (NASDAQ:), Union Pacific (NYSE:), Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:), McCormick (NYSE:), Elevance
* World Economic Forum in Davos – including Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva, German Finance Minister Joerg Kukies and Argentina President Javier Milei
(By Mike Dolan, editing by XXXX; mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)
Commodities
European natural gas prices surge amid supply concerns
Investing.com — European prices have seen an increase of over 3%, with the Dutch TTF contract, a benchmark in the industry, trading at 50.30 euros per megawatt-hour.
The rise in prices is primarily due to a disruption at the Freeport LNG facility in the U.S. and the announcement that Germany may provide subsidies for storage refills during the summer. This move by Germany aims to ensure the country meets its target storage levels.
In the European Union, gas storage levels have dipped below 60%, which has led to an increased demand for LNG. The prices for gas in Europe during the summer period are higher than those projected for the upcoming winter.
This price dynamic poses a threat to the refilling of storage sites and raises the risk of potential shortages across the continent.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
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