Commodities
Oil posts weekly losses as US data dents hopes for near-term rate cuts
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
By Laila Kearney
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices fell by about 2% on Friday and posted weekly losses after U.S. jobs data shrank the odds of imminent interest rate cuts in the world’s largest economy, which could dampen crude demand.
Faltering growth in China and the possibility of some easing of tensions in the Middle East also reduced prices.
futures settled at $77.33 a barrel, shedding $1.37, or 1.7%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $72.28 a barrel, falling $1.54, or 2%.
Both benchmarks lost roughly 7% on the week.
High interest rates, which tend to dampen economic growth and oil demand, in major economies like the United States and the euro zone appear to be here to stay in the near term.
Data on Friday showed U.S. employers added far more jobs in January than expected, reducing the chances of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar jumped against all major currencies as a result.
“Prices were chugging along little changed prior to the report, but a huge beat on jobs created is kicking the can down the road for interest rate cuts,” said Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler.
Also keeping oil prices lower was an outage at BP (NYSE:)’s 435,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in Whiting, Indiana, following a power loss that disrupted operations on Thursday, said Bob Yawger of Mizuho.
Power at the refinery had been restored by midday on Friday, but sources said BP had not yet set a date for restarting the plant.
“You end up with barrels with no place to go that could be shoved into storage,” Yawger said.
STEADY RIG COUNT
Energy services firm Baker Hughes said the U.S. oil rig count, an early indicator of future supply, held steady at 499 this week. Money managers raised their combined futures and options oil position in New York and London by 18,082 contracts to 117,226 in the week to Jan. 30, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.
Across the Atlantic, a European Central Bank policymaker also suggested it was too early to cut interest rates in the euro zone.
Concern over China’s economic recovery persisted, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting that the country’s economic growth would slow to 4.6% in 2024 and decline further in the medium term to about 3.5% in 2028.
The weekly loss for oil prices was already in motion after unsubstantiated reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas caused prices to settle more than 2% lower on Thursday.
Mediators are awaiting a response from Hamas to a proposal drafted last week with Israeli and U.S. spy chiefs and passed on by Egypt and Qatar for the war’s first extended ceasefire.
A pause could ease political risk looming over Gulf and Red Sea shipping lanes, which are key for global energy flows.
On Thursday, sources said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, had kept its output policy unchanged. The group will decide in March whether to extend the voluntary oil production cuts that are in place for the first quarter, the sources said.
OPEC+ has output cuts of 2.2 million bpd in place for the first quarter, as announced in November.
Commodities
China to cut import tariffs on some recycled copper and aluminium raw materials
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China will reduce import tariffs on ethane and certain recycled and aluminium raw materials from next year, the government said on Saturday.
The Ministry of Finance announced adjustments to various import tariff categories, effective Jan. 1, aimed at increasing imports of high-quality products, expanding domestic demand and promoting high-level opening-up, it said in a statement.
Provisional import tariffs below the most-favoured-nation rates will be applied to 935 items, the ministry said. Import tariffs will be reduced on ethane and certain recycled copper and aluminium raw materials to advance green and low-carbon development.
Tariffs will rise on commodities including molasses and sugar-containing pre-mixed powders will increase but be reduced on items such as cyclic olefin polymers, ethylene-vinyl alcohol copolymers and automatic transmissions for special-purpose vehicles such as fire trucks and repair vehicles.
Import tariffs will also be reduced on items such as sodium zirconium cyclosilicate, viral vectors for CAR-T tumour therapy, and nickel-titanium alloy wires for surgical implants.
The China-Maldives Free Trade Agreement will come into effect on Jan. 1, with tariff reduction implementations, the ministry said.
Commodities
Oil drifts higher in sparse holiday trade
By Paul Carsten
LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices edged up on Monday in thin holiday trade at the end of the year, as traders awaited more Chinese and U.S. economic data later this week to assess growth in the world’s two largest oil consumers.
futures rose 20 cents to $74.37 a barrel by 1208 GMT. The more active March contract was at $74.00 a barrel, up 21 cents.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 27 cents to $70.87 a barrel.
Investors are eyeing China’s PMI factory surveys due on Tuesday and the U.S. ISM survey for December to be released on Friday.
Both Brent and WTI rose about 1.4% last week buoyed by a larger-than-expected drawdown from inventories in the week ended Dec. 20 as refiners ramped up activity and the holiday season boosted fuel demand. [EIA/S]
Available capacity at U.S. oil refiners is expected to decrease by 108,000 bpd in the week ending Jan. 3, research company IIR Energy said on Monday.
Oil prices were also supported by optimism for Chinese economic growth next year that could lift demand from the top crude oil importing nation.
To revive growth, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025, Reuters reported last week.
“Global oil consumption reached an all-time high in 2024 despite China underperforming expectations, and oil stockpiles are heading into next year at relatively low levels,” said Ryan Fitzmaurice, senior commodity strategist at Marex.
“Going forward, China economic data is expected to improve as the recent stimulus measures take hold in 2025. Also, lower rates in the U.S. and elsewhere should be supportive of oil consumption.”
Separately, the World Bank has raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, would remain a drag next year.
Commodities
China to cut import tariffs on some recycled copper and aluminium raw materials
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China will reduce import tariffs on ethane and certain recycled and aluminium raw materials from next year, the government said on Saturday.
The Ministry of Finance announced adjustments to various import tariff categories, effective Jan. 1, aimed at increasing imports of high-quality products, expanding domestic demand and promoting high-level opening-up, it said in a statement.
Provisional import tariffs below the most-favoured-nation rates will be applied to 935 items, the ministry said. Import tariffs will be reduced on ethane and certain recycled copper and aluminium raw materials to advance green and low-carbon development.
Tariffs will rise on commodities including molasses and sugar-containing pre-mixed powders will increase but be reduced on items such as cyclic olefin polymers, ethylene-vinyl alcohol copolymers and automatic transmissions for special-purpose vehicles such as fire trucks and repair vehicles.
Import tariffs will also be reduced on items such as sodium zirconium cyclosilicate, viral vectors for CAR-T tumour therapy, and nickel-titanium alloy wires for surgical implants.
The China-Maldives Free Trade Agreement will come into effect on Jan. 1, with tariff reduction implementations, the ministry said.
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