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Oil prices extend multi-month highs on supply concerns

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Oil rises as supply cuts offset inflation concerns
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo

By Robert Harvey

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices traded higher on Wednesday as expected tight crude supply for the rest of the year offset inflation concerns.

Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extension of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of production cuts to the end of this year will lock in a substantial market deficit through the fourth quarter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

The continuing supply cuts could lift futures above the $100 a barrel threshold before the end of the year, Bank of America analysts said on Wednesday.

U.S. consumer prices rose in August by their most in more than a year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday, driven by a 10.6% increase in retail gasoline prices.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, the consumer price index rose by 0.3%.

Benchmark Brent futures rose 40 cents, or 0.43%, to $92.46 a barrel by 1252 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 41 cents, or 0.46%, to $89.25.

Front-month Brent futures contracts traded as high as $4.68 a barrel above those for delivery six months further out on Tuesday, a width of spread not breached since last November, indicating tighter market supply.

Meanwhile, forecasters expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates at its meeting on Thursday.

The IEA’s fourth-quarter demand growth forecast, meanwhile, was revised down by 600,000 bpd in what Investec analyst Callum Macpherson said was a significant adjustment.

“The deficit is now broadly equal to the Saudi additional voluntary cut,” he said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday stuck to its forecasts for robust growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024.

Four oil ports shut in by powerful storms in Libya reopened on Wednesday.

Commodities

Crude oil edges higher on supply concerns; API stocks rise

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Investing.com — Oil prices edged higher Wednesday, with elevated tensions in the Middle East providing support after U.S. inventories rose more than expected. 

By 08:45 ET (12.45 GMT), the futures traded 0.2% higher at $80.90 a barrel and the contract climbed 0.3% to $85.55 a barrel. 

Middle East tensions on the rise

Both crude contracts gained around 1% on Tuesday, after Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned of a possible “all out war” with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, just as the country’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza appeared to be settling down.

The U.S., Israel’s main backer, is attempting to avoid a broader conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed group, as an escalating war risks supply disruption in this key oil-producing region.

Additionally, reports suggested a Ukrainian drone strike led to an oil terminal fire at a major Russian port, potentially impacting the supply of crude from this major supplier.

US crude inventories rise

This enhanced tension has overshadowed data showing an increase in domestic crude stocks just as many were expecting a pick up in demand in the summer driving season to result in falling inventories.

U.S. fell by around 2.3 million barrels for the week ended June 14, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute, compared with a draw of 2.4 million barrels the previous week. 

“The surprise crude build means the report was moderately bearish,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

UBS looks for crude rebound

UBS expects Brent to rebound to the mid to high-$80s, supported by the OPEC+ cuts extension and the seasonal rebound in demand. 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, announced plans earlier this month to gradually phase out its voluntary cuts potentially as early as October 2024.

Brent is then set to move to $80/bbl next year, UBS added, as OPEC+ starts to bring back production gradually from the second quarter. 

“We do expect a negative impact on oil demand from slower GDP growth and higher prices but continue to expect demand to grow until the late 2020s,” UBS said.

 

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Commodities

Gold slips lower; central bank buying set to boost demand

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Investing.com– Gold prices drifted lower Wednesday in tight trading ranges, with the Juneteenth holiday in the U.S. limiting activity. 

At 07:30 ET (11:30 GMT), dropped 0.1% to $2,328.84 an ounce, while fell 0.2% to $2,343.20 an ounce. 

Gold set for central bank boost 

Gold and broader metal prices have retreated in recent sessions after the Federal Reserve said it expected to cut interest rates only once in 2024, compared to earlier forecasts for three cuts.

This has boosted the dollar, which makes gold, and other commodities denominated in the greenback, more expensive for foreign buyers, as well as increasing the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets.

Gold hit a high of almost $2,450 in May an ounce, helped by strong demand from central banks, due to concerns about geopolitical instability and persistent inflation.

Last year, central banks added the second-highest amount of gold ever at 1,037 tons. In 2022, a record 1,082 tons of gold was purchased by central banks.

More buying is likely in the near future, as the World Gold Council’s annual survey, which polled 70 central bankers, found 29% of them plan to raise their gold reserves over the next 12 months.

That’s the highest level since the annual survey began in 2018.

The other precious metals have also traded in a tight range Wednesday. rose 0.8% to $984.75 an ounce, while rose 0.1% to $29.598 an ounce. 

Copper bounce after recent selloff 

Among industrial metals, copper prices rose Wednesday, rebounding slightly after having fallen to its lowest level in two months earlier this week.

Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.3% to $9,800.30 a tonne, while one-month copper futures rose 1.4% to $4.5550 a pound.

The slump in copper’s price following disappointing industrial output data from China, the metal’s biggest market, as the housing and construction slump in the second largest economy in the world worsens.

Copper’s price had reached a record high above $11,000 a tonne in May of this year but has rapidly cooled due to worries about rising global inventory levels and weakness in China.

 

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Commodities

Oil market still set to tighten in second half of 2024 – UBS

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Investing.com – The major energy agencies have all recently made revisions to the likely oil balances this year and next, but they still point to the crude market tightening in the second half of 2024, according to UBS.

These revisions included a bearish update from the International Energy Agency, seeing lower demand growth, a bullish update from the Energy Information Administration, with higher demand, and a neutral one from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

“With the extension of the OPEC+ voluntary cuts, the IEA and EIA see market tightness persisting for the rest of the year assuming that OPEC+ production will increase only marginally,” analysts at UBS said, in a note dated June 18.

The agencies made mixed revisions to demand growth forecasts this month: the IEA cut forecasts, the EIA raised and OPEC left them unchanged again.

The IEA’s downward revision was driven by weaker OECD and base effects, while the EIA also noted lackluster OECD demand, but raised forecasts on increased bunker fuel demand caused by Red Sea disruptions. 

With this in mind, “we marginally cut demand growth estimates to 1.1Mb/d in 2024 and 1.0Mb/d in 2025,” UBS said.

Turning to supply, the agencies kept their non-OPEC+ supply forecasts broadly unchanged, except for the EIA’s 2024 growth estimates, up 0.1 million barrels a day (b/d) on better-than-expected U.S. supply in 1H24.

Additionally, despite OPEC+’s announced plan to gradually phase out its voluntary cuts potentially as early as October 2024, we continue to model the first return of OPEC+ barrels in the second quarter of 2025 when market balances should allow for a gradual ramp-up.

In the very near term, UBS expects to rebound to the mid to high-$80s, supported by the OPEC+ cuts extension and the seasonal rebound in demand. 

Brent is then set to move to $80/bbl next year as OPEC+ starts to bring back production gradually from the second quarter. 

“We do expect a negative impact on oil demand from slower GDP growth and higher prices but continue to expect demand to grow until the late 2020s,” UBS said.

Rising efficiency and EVs’ increasing impact should see demand growth slow down sharply though, to around 0.5Mb/d within 3-4 years and peak oil by 2029. Despite this demand slowdown, we expect global spare capacity to remain stable at an average level by historical standards as supply growth slows down too. 

In the near term, we see the main upside risks coming from more restricted supply. 

“Extended OPEC+ cuts and potentially a larger drop in Russian production, combined with robust demand could lift Brent above $90/bbl in the near-term in our view. Further escalation in the Middle East and disruption to supply could send it closer to $100/bbl,” UBS added.

The bank’s downside scenario assumes a greater negative impact on oil demand from a global economic slowdown to the tune of around 1.0Mb/d versus its forecasts. 

“Combined with a reduced geopolitical risk premium, this could see Brent prices drop below our long-term oil price of $75/bbl.”

 

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