Commodities
Oil prices head for weekly losses on Chinese demand concerns
Investing.com– Oil prices slipped lower Friday, heading for a weekly loss, on worries about waning Chinese demand and after data showed a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories.
At 08:20 ET (13:20 GMT), fell 0.3% to $72.33 a barrel and fell 0.3% to $68.53 a barrel.
Oil heads for weekly decline
Both contracts are set to post weekly falls of over 2%, with losses initially sparked by unimpressive stimulus measures from China, especially as Beijing declined to dole out more targeted fiscal measures to support private spending and the property market.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also cut its 2024 demand outlook for a fourth consecutive month, citing concerns over China.
Sentiment towards China was also strained by the prospect of a renewed trade war with the U.S., as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. Trump has vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on the country.
US inventories grow in past week, but product stockpiles fall
US government data, released on Thursday, showed that U.S. grew nearly 2.1 million barrels (mb) in the week to Nov. 8, more than expectations for a 0.4 mb build and a second straight week of outsized build.
The reading pushed up concerns over a U.S. supply glut, especially as production remained close to record highs of over 13 million barrels per day. Production is also expected to increase in a Trump presidency.
But outsized draws in and inventories showed that demand in the world’s largest fuel consumer still remained robust, although this trend is also expected to shift with the upcoming winter season.
IEA raises 2024 demand outlook, warns of 2025 supply glut
The on Thursday slightly raised its 2024 demand growth forecast to 920,00 bpd, seeing stronger gasoil demand in some parts of the world.
The agency left its 2025 demand outlook unchanged, but warned that robust production will see oil supplies exceed demand in 2025, even if the OPEC left its ongoing supply cuts in place.
The IEA’s forecast comes after the OPEC cut its annual demand outlook earlier this week.
UBS cuts 2025 forecast, but sees potential upside
UBS cut its Brent crude price target to $80/bbl in 2025, down from $87/bbl at the end of March and June and $85/bbl at the end of September.
However, the bank’s analysts continue to believe that oil market participants are pricing in a too pessimistic outlook for 2025.
“Despite the re-election of Donald Trump and his pro-drilling pledge, we believe that it is not the person sitting in the White House that determines the US crude production path, but the prevailing spot price. With the US crude price starting to trade into the production curve, US crude production could be flat or even negative next year if current prices prevail,” analysts at UBS said, in a note dated Nov. 14.
“Moreover, energy executives have indicated an ongoing focus on capital discipline.”
Tariffs remain a risk for oil demand growth in 2025, but further rate cuts and fiscal stimulus measures would likely offset the associated economic growth drags.
“We see the oil market as balanced to marginally oversupplied next year. With low positioning of financial investors due to their view of a strongly oversupplied market, we believe oil prices have room to recover from current levels,” UBS added.
(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)
Commodities
Oil prices settle higher after larger-than-expected drop in US crude stockpiles
Investing.com– Oil prices settled higher Friday after data showed weekly inventories fell more than expected.
At 2:30 p.m. ET (19:30 GMT), rose 1.2% to $74.17 a barrel, and settled higher at $70.60 a barrel.
Trading volumes were thin ahead of the new year’s start as many institutional investors and traders typically take time off during the holiday season. Additionally, year-end profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing reduce trading activity.
US crude inventories fall more than expected
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, reported Friday crude stockpiles for week ended Dec. 20 fell 4.2M barrels, compared with expectations for a decline of just 700,000 barrels.
This drawdown indicates a tightening supply in the U.S. crude oil market, which has implications for global oil prices. Following the API’s report, oil prices had edged higher, supported by hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China and the reported decline in U.S. crude inventories.
Gasoline inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 1.7 million barrels.
China stimulus hopes persist
Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the World Bank revised its economic growth forecast for China upward for 2024 and 2025 but cautioned that weak household and business confidence, combined with challenges in the property sector, would continue to hinder growth in the coming year.
The outlook for oil demand hinges on the hope that China, the world’s largest oil importer, can revive its economy, especially as there are concerns about a potential oversupply due to expected increases in production from non-OPEC countries.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Gold prices fall as Treasury yields rise
Investing.com– Gold prices fell Friday, ending the week lower as Treasury yields rose following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt
was 0.7 at $2,614.40 per ounce, while expiring in February edged 0.9% lower to $2,630.36 an ounce.
Trading in gold typically sees thin volumes and subdued prices toward the year-end as many institutional traders and market participants close their books ahead of the holiday season.
Additionally, at year-end, economic data releases and major policy decisions are typically fewer, reducing catalysts for significant price volatility.
The yellow metal was set to edge up 0.3% for the week after losing more than 1% in the previous one. A strong dollar after the Fed’s hawkish shift last week has continued to put downward pressure on bullion.
Gold slips amid pressure from rising yields
The was slightly lower on Friday, pairing overnight gains, though continued to hover near a two-year high it touched last week. Still, Treasury yields were sharply higher, pressuring the yellow metal.
A weaker dollar often boosts on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more attractive to buyers using other currencies.
Gold prices had fallen sharply after the Fed policy meeting indicated only two more rate cuts in 2025, against previous expectations of four.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds
Other precious metals were lower on Friday. were down 3.6% to $919.90 an ounce, while were down 1.5% $29.935 an ounce.
Copper gains on concentrate shortage news, strong dollar caps gains
Among industrial metals, copper prices were higher after a Reuters report showed China’s leading copper smelters have set lower processing charge guidance for the first quarter of 2025 compared to this quarter, reflecting an ongoing shortage of copper concentrates.
At a meeting in Shanghai, representatives from the China Smelters Purchase Team agreed on new rates for copper concentrate treatment and refining charges, setting them at $25 per metric ton and 2.5 cents per pound, down 28.6% from the fourth-quarter guidance of $35 per ton and 3.5 cents per pound.
The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.4% to $8,995.00 a ton, while February edged down 0.1% to $4.1242 a pound.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Oil settles up over 1% on large draw from US crude stocks
By Shariq Khan
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices settled more than 1% higher on Friday and recorded a weekly gain in low trading volume ahead of year-end, buoyed by a larger-than-expected drawdown from inventories last week.
futures rose 91 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $74.17 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 98 cents, or 1.4%, to $70.60 per barrel.
On a weekly basis, both Brent and WTI crude gained about 1.4%.
U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 20 as refiners ramped up activity and the holiday season boosted fuel demand, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Friday. [EIA/S]
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 1.9 million-barrel drawdown, whereas figures from the American Petroleum Institute released earlier in the week estimated a 3.2 million-barrel draw, according to market sources. [API/S]
Optimism over Chinese economic growth has also sparked hopes of higher demand next year from the top oil importing nation.
The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for Chinese economic growth in 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue special treasury bonds worth 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) next year, sources told Reuters this week, as Beijing acts to revive the sluggish economy.
The war between Russia and Ukraine, which had become an afterthought in energy markets due to stagnant global oil demand, seems to be returning to the forefront after numerous events this week that could impact supplies next year, fuel distributor TACenergy’s trading desk wrote on Friday.
NATO said on Friday it would boost its presence in the Baltic Sea, a day after Finland seized a ship carrying Russian oil on suspicion of causing internet and power cable outages. Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale prices rose amid fading hopes for a new deal to transit Russian gas through Ukraine.
Tensions have flared in the Middle East too, after Israel raided a north Gaza hospital on Friday and struck targets linked to the Houthi movement in Yemen on Thursday, but these events are unlikely to affect oil prices much heading into next year, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said.
Instead, the largest risk in the Middle East is from sanctions enforcement that will likely occur with the incoming Donald Trump administration in the U.S., he said.
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