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Oil prices lower on demand jitters, hopes for Gaza truce; OPEC+ meeting eyed

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Investing.com– Oil prices slipped to weekly loss after settling lower Friday, as fresh hopes on a Gaza ceasefire and ongoing demand concerns weighed on sentiment ahead of the weekend’s meeting of top crude producers.

At 14:08 ET (18:08 GMT),  fell 0.3% to $81.62 a barrel, while fell 1.2% to $76.99 a barrel.

Hamas-Israel truce back in focus

Israel agreed to a deal that would lead to a “lasting” ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, US President Joe Biden said Friday, referring to a three-phase ceasefire proposal. 

The first phase, lasting six weeks, calls for complete ceasefire, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza. The second phase seeks to end hostilities in Gaza permanently as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territory and would see the release of all remaining living hostages in Gaza. The final phase of the deal, meanwhile, involves a reconstruction plan for Gaza.

It remains to seen, however, whether Hamas will accept the proposal.

The news eased Middle East tensions, helping to further cool bets on a oil supply-risk premium in the region. 

China PMIs disappoint, add to demand fears

Purchasing managers index data showed on Friday that Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in May, while non-manufacturing activity grew at a slower-than-expected pace.

The readings indicated that Chinese business activity was cooling after a brief rebound over the past two months, and ramped up concerns over sluggish demand in the world’s biggest oil importer.

The data also indicated that bumper stimulus measures from Beijing had so far provided only limited support for the Chinese economy, and that more supportive measures were needed.

Baker Hughes rig count falls 

The number of oil rigs operating in the U.S. fell to 496 from 497, according to data Friday from energy services firm Baker Hughes.  

The fall in rig count comes as concerns about weaker demand resurfaced following data Thursday pointing to weaker gasoline demand.   

U.S. saw a bigger-than-expected draw in the week to May 24 – at nearly 4.2 million barrels against expectations of 1.6 mb.

But grew 2 mb, more than expectations for a build of 1 mb, while grew 2.5 mb against expectations for a build of 0.4 mb. 

The builds in the product inventories raised concerns that demand in the world’s biggest fuel consumer was sluggish going into the travel-heavy summer season. 

Dollar flat as inflation data meet expectations 

The dollar was steady, doing little to help spark a bid in crude, as showing the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose 2.8% in April, unchanged from a month earlier, matching investor expectations. 

Fears of high-for-longer U.S. interest rates have been a key weight on oil prices in recent sessions, amid growing concerns that high rates will dent economic activity in the coming months, stymying oil demand. 

OPEC+ meets over weekend

Also in the spotlight is an upcoming meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known at OPEC+, with the cartel set to discuss future production levels. 

The group is currently cutting output by 5.86 million barrels per day, equal to about 5.7% of global demand.

The meeting will now be live rather than virtual adding to optimism that the group will likely agree to extend production curbs. 

OPEC+ is working on a complex deal to be agreed at its meeting on Sunday that would allow the group to extend some of its deep oil production cuts into 2025, Reuters reported, citing sources.

(Peter Nurse, Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

Commodities

Oil set for third weekly decline, pressured by Gaza ceasefire hopes

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By Laila Kearney and Georgina McCartney

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Friday and were on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by muted demand in China and hopes of a Gaza ceasefire deal that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns.

futures for September dipped 56 cents to $81.81 a barrel by 1250 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September fell 40 cents to $77.88.

For the week, Brent is trading down almost 1% while WTI is down more than 2%.

Recent data, such as July 20 figures showing that China’s total fuel oil imports dropped 11% in the first half of 2024, have raised concern about the wider demand outlook in China.

In the Middle East, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza have been gaining momentum.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

A ceasefire has been the subject of negotiations for months, but U.S. officials believe the parties are closer than ever to an agreement for a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release by Hamas of female, sick, elderly and wounded hostages.

Oil price declines were capped, however, by threats to production from Canadian wildfires, a large stocks draw and continued hopes of a September cut to U.S. interest rates after strong economic data, said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.

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Commodities

Oil prices fall; set for weekly losses on demand concerns

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell Friday, on course for a third consecutive losing week as concerns over sluggish demand conditions in Asia weighed.

At 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT), fell 0.9% to $81.62 a barrel, and dropped 0.8% to $77.66 a barrel.

Crude set for third straight week of losses

Both benchmarks are on course for another losing week, the third in succession, with down just under 1% and WTI nearly 3% lower.

Persistent concerns over slowing growth and demand in top importer China have been the dominant factor, part triggered by GDP data from last week, which showed the Chinese economy grew less than expected in the second quarter.

Additionally, more data this week showed the country’s apparent oil demand fell 8.1% to 13.66 million barrels per day in June.

Beijing unexpectedly cut a swathe of lending rates this week, further trying to loosen monetary policy amid growing concerns over sluggish growth. 

Apart from China, uncertainty over Japan also grew following middling , while weak activity data in Europe also pointed to economic woes.  

Gaza ceasefire in focus

Also weighing on the crude market have been increasing hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza.

The leaders of Australia, New Zealand and Canada called for an immediate ceasefire in a joint statement on Friday, while U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to help efforts at reaching a deal, striking a tougher tone than President Joe Biden.

A ceasefire has been talked about for months, but if it was to occur then some of the risk premium could be removed from the market.

Strong US GDP, rate cut hopes offer some support 

On the flip side,  data, released on Thursday, showed that the U.S. economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, despite pressure from high rates and relatively sticky inflation.

The reading drove up hopes that the world’s biggest fuel consumer was headed for a “soft landing,” where economic growth remained steady while inflation eased. 

These hopes were also lifted by the data showing overall U.S. inflation cooled as expected in June.

According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the  (PCE) price index slipped to 2.5% in June, from 2.6% the prior month. .

Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, the year-on-year “core” gauge, widely known as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, remained at 2.6%, only marginally above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

This sparked increased optimism over a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Data showing steady drawdowns in U.S. also offered some positive cues to oil markets, as fuel demand in the country remained robust amid the travel-heavy summer season. 

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Canadian wildfire reaches Jasper, firefighters battle to protect oil pipeline

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(Reuters) -A wildfire reached the Canadian town of Jasper, Alberta on Wednesday, one of hundreds ravaging the western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, as firefighters battled to save key facilities such as the Trans Mountain Pipeline, authorities said.

Wildfires burning uncontrolled across the region include 433 in British Columbia and 176 in Alberta, more than a dozen of them in the area of Fort McMurray, an oil sands hub.

The pipeline, which can carry 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Edmonton to Vancouver, runs through a national park in the Canadian Rockies near the picturesque tourist town, from which about 25,000 people were forced to evacuate on Tuesday.

“Firefighters … are working to save as many structures as possible and protect critical infrastructure, including the wastewater treatment plant, communications facilities, the Trans Mountain Pipeline,” Parks Canada said in a post on Facebook (NASDAQ:).

The pipeline operator did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment, but said earlier it was safely operating the pipeline and had deployed sprinkler protection as a preventive measure.

In the day’s last update, Jasper National Park said it could not report on the extent of damage to specific locations or neighbourhoods, and that it would provide further updates on Thursday.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government approved Alberta’s request for federal assistance.

“We’re deploying Canadian Armed Forces resources, evacuations support, and more emergency wildfire resources to the province immediately – and we’re coordinating firefighting and airlift assistance. Alberta, we’re with you.”

The town, and the park, which draws more than two million tourists a year, were evacuated on Monday night, at a time when officials estimated there were 15,000 visitors in the park.

© Reuters. Smoke rises from the Lower Campbell Creek wildfire (K51472) wildfire northwest of Beaverdell, British Columbia, Canada July 24, 2024.   BC Wildfire Service/Handout via REUTERS.

Deteriorating air quality forced firefighters and others lacking breathing equipment to evacuate to the town of Hinton, about 100 km (62 miles) away, park authorities said on Facebook on Wednesday evening.

Officials of Parks Canada earlier said they expected rain to arrive overnight.

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