Investing.com– Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Thursday, buoyed by fears of supply disruptions stemming from worsening tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war, although a build in U.S. inventories limited overall gains.

Prices advanced this week as the use of long-range U.S. weapons by Ukraine against Russia ramped up tensions between the two countries, sparking concerns that oil supplies from Moscow could be disrupted.

Oil also benefited from some bargain buying after dropping to more than one-month lows last week. Still, overall gains were limited by concerns over slowing demand, especially as U.S. inventories grew more than expected.

expiring in January rose 0.4% to $73.07 a barrel, while rose 0.4% to $68.79 a barrel by 22:04 ET (03:04 GMT).

Russia-Ukraine tensions underpin oil

Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine were a key point of support for oil markets, especially after the U.S. authorized Kyiv to use long-range missiles against Russia. 

Moscow responded to this by lowering its threshold for nuclear retaliation, and warned of a dire escalation in the war.

Ukraine on Wednesday fired a fresh volley of Western-made missiles into Russia, potentially drawing more severe retaliation from Moscow. A key point of anxiety for oil markets is Ukraine’s continued targeting of Russia’s energy infrastructure, which could potentially disrupt oil supplies.

US inventories grow more than expected, gasoline stockpiles rise 

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday that U.S. grew 0.5 million barrels in the week to November 15, more than expectations for a build of 0.4 mb.

The build, while minimal, was a third straight week of builds.

More worrying for oil markets was a nearly 2.1 mb build in , which spurred some concerns that U.S. fuel demand was cooling as the winter season approached.

Oil prices remained skittish on the prospect of increased supply and softening demand in the coming year, which some analysts expect to cause a supply glut. 

Reuters reported that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) was planning to further postpone increases in oil production when it meets on December 1.

By Scott DiSavino

(Reuters) – U.S. producers will boost output in 2025 following a series of production cuts this year, as rising demand from liquefied natural gas export plants is expected to increase prices that had fallen to multi-decade lows.

U.S. production is on track to decline in 2024 for the first time since 2020, when the COVID pandemic reduced demand, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest outlook.

Drillers started cutting gas production after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March, and have remained relatively low since then. In some markets, spot gas prices have even traded at negative levels throughout the year, meaning producers had to pay others to take their product. [HH/GAS]

But rising demand for exports should boost average annual gas prices next year by more than 40% over the levels seen in 2024, according to analysts’ estimates.

The EIA projects annual average dry gas production will slide from a record 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 to 103.3 bcfd in 2024, but climb to 104.5 bcfd in 2025.

It expects total gas demand, including LNG and pipeline exports, will rise from a record 109.9 bcfd in 2023 to 111.2 bcfd in 2024 and 113.0 bcfd in 2025.

Most of 2025’s expected demand increase is due to a 14% jump in LNG exports, while domestic use – such as gas used for power generation – will likely see a decline.

From 2019 to 2023, U.S. LNG exports have soared by an average of 34% per year, while domestic gas usage has edged up by just 2% a year.

Two plants under construction are due to enter service in test mode by the end of this year, including the first 1.8-bcfd phase of Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility in Louisiana and the 1.5-bcfd Stage 3 expansion at Cheniere Energy (NYSE:)’s Corpus Christi facility in Texas.

WAITING FOR HIGHER PRICES

To meet growing export demand, several of the biggest U.S. gas producers said in their third-quarter earnings that they expect to boost output in the fourth quarter and throughout 2025.

“Producers are waiting for higher prices to deliver several bcfd of production held back … the likely start-up of Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 should lead to much higher flows next year,” analysts at Bank of America said in a report.

Analysts forecast average annual Henry Hub gas prices would jump to a three-year high of around $3.27 per million British thermal units in 2025, up from a four-year low of $2.29 in 2024. [HH/GAS]

“The combination of growing LNG exports, increased electrical generation demand and the prospect of winter weather suggests a tighter supply-demand picture for natural gas in 2025 and beyond,” Thomas Jorden, the CEO at Coterra Energy (NYSE:), told analysts on a call to discuss the producer’s earnings.

Jorden, however, said Coterra would continue to curtail output until it sees materially better spot gas prices.

EQT (ST:), the nation’s second-biggest gas producer, boosted its fourth-quarter production guidance to 6.03-6.58 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (bcfed), up from prior guidance of 5.60-6.14 bcfed. That compares with actual output of around 6.32 bcfed in the third quarter.

“I do expect (production) to come up a little bit as we get into 2025,” EQT Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Knop told analysts in an earnings call.

EOG Resources (NYSE:), another of the nation’s biggest gas producers, expects its U.S. gas output to rise from 1.745 bcfd in the third quarter to an estimated 1.800-1.850 bcfd in the fourth quarter. 

That puts EOG on track to boost U.S. gas output by around 11% in 2024, up from an annual average of 1.551 bcfd in 2023.

Expand Energy, the biggest U.S. gas producer following the merger of Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE:), said it could boost gas output to around 7 bcfed in 2025, up from around 6.75 bcfed in the third quarter of 2024.

But whether Expand produces that extra output in 2025 depends on market conditions.

“The company intends to prudently activate production as market conditions warrant,” Expand said, noting that by the end of 2024 it expects to be able to deliver another 1.0 bcfd of short-cycle capacity – if needed.

Investing.com– Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Thursday as heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine underpinned safe haven demand, helping bullion weather strength in the dollar.

Gold rose for a fourth consecutive session, extending a rebound from over two-month lows. But the yellow metal’s pace of gains now appeared to be slowing amid pressure from the dollar, as traders second-guessed expectations for lower U.S. interest rates. 

rose 0.2% to $2,656.84 an ounce, while expiring in December rose 0.3% to $2,659.15 an ounce by 00:00 ET (05:00 GMT). 

Russia-Ukraine tensions support gold demand 

The yellow metal was underpinned by higher safe haven demand in the face of increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine, after the U.S. authorized the use of long-range missiles by Kyiv.

Russia had responded by lowering its threshold for nuclear retaliation, and warned of a dire escalation in the conflict over the U.S. move. Ukraine launched a series of missile strikes against Russian territories this week, using Western-made weapons. 

Fears of an escalation in the conflict drove traders towards gold, helping the yellow metal recover after it plummeted from record highs over the past two weeks.

Dollar, yield strength limits gold recovery 

Gold was nursing steep losses in the past two weeks as risk appetite was initially boosted by Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election.

Trump’s victory also saw traders pricing in the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates in the long term, which supported the and Treasury yields. The greenback traded just below a one-year high on Thursday.

Uncertainty over U.S. interest rates was furthered by sticky inflation data released last week, while the Federal Reserve struck a less dovish tone in recent addresses. 

Traders were seen scaling back expectations for a December rate cut. 

showed traders pricing in a 57.3% chance for a 25 basis point cut in December, compared to a 85.7% chance seen last week. Bets on a hold rose to 42.7% from 14.3% a week ago.

This notion pressured gold, given that higher rates increase the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal.

Other precious metals rose on Thursday but were also nursing losses over the past two weeks. rose 0.4% to $970.35 an ounce, while rose 0.7% to $31.225 an ounce. 

Among industrial metals, benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.2% to $9,109.50 a ton, while December fell 0.2% to $4.1442 a pound.

Copper prices were walloped by increased concerns over slowing Chinese demand, especially as recent stimulus measures and economic readings from the country underwhelmed.