Commodities
Oil prices plunge as China stimulus underwhelms, US hurricane risk abates
Investing.com– Oil prices fell Monday as more fiscal stimulus measures from top importer China underwhelmed, while a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico appeared to have a limited impact on U.S. production.
At 07:45 ET (12:45 GMT), fell 1.8% to $72.56 a barrel, while dropped 2% to $69.00 a barrel.
China stimulus underwhelms
Prices extended losses from Friday after Beijing approved about 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in measures aimed at lowering government debt levels. But a lack of targeted measures for private consumption largely left investors wanting more, especially as data over the weekend showed persistent Chinese deflation.
China’s new stimulus measures disappointed investors hoping for more, especially as the world’s biggest oil importer did not announce measures specifically aimed at improving private spending.
Analysts at ANZ said the gaps in stimulus were to accommodate for potential headwinds from a change in U.S. administration, after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential elections.
Trump has vowed to impose steep import tariffs against China, heralding more economic headwinds for the country.
Data released over the weekend also showed Chinese consumer inflation contracted in October, while producer inflation shrank for a 25th consecutive month.
“Markets were left underwhelmed by China’s debt package, which will help alleviate local government debt and allow them to implement more stimulus measures. In addition, a Trump presidency is seen as relatively more bearish for energy markets. However, the key risk to this view is if President Trump chooses to strictly enforce sanctions against Iran. This would erase the surplus expected over 2025,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
US supply fears abate as Hurricane Rafael weakens
Hurricane Rafael weakened into a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to weaken further in the coming days.
The storm is now projected to pose a limited threat to oil production in the region, heralding fewer supply disruptions.
Chevron (NYSE:) stated on Sunday that has started redeploying personnel and restoring production at its Gulf Of Mexico platforms that were closed for Hurricane Rafael.
Chevron operates six platforms in the Gulf of Mexico – Anchor, Blind Faith, Jack/St. Malo, Tahiti, Petronius, and Big Foot.
Speculators increased crude longs
The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long positions in ICE in the lead-up to the US election.
Speculators bought 32,238 lots over the last reporting week to leave them with a net long of 126,145 lots as of last Tuesday. Similarly, speculators increased their net long in NYMEX WTI by 48,143 lots to 143,985 lots.
“Softer fundamentals through next year suggest little reason for speculators to jump into the market. However, there are clear risks, including OPEC+ deciding to further delay the unwinding of their supply cuts next year,” ING added.
(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)
Commodities
Gold prices flat amid thin year-end trading, strong dollar creates pressure
Investing.com– Gold prices were slightly in the red on Friday amid thin year-end trading, although they were set to edge higher this week amid a cautious outlook following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
was marginally lower at $2,628.22 per ounce, while expiring in February edged 0.4% lower to $2,643.05 an ounce by 07:38 ET (12:38 GMT).
Trading in gold typically sees thin volumes and subdued prices toward the year-end as many institutional traders and market participants close their books ahead of the holiday season.
Additionally, at year-end, economic data releases and major policy decisions are typically fewer, reducing catalysts for significant price volatility.
The yellow metal was set to edge up 0.3% for the week after losing more than 1% in the previous one. A strong dollar after the Fed’s hawkish shift last week has continued to put downward pressure on bullion.
Gold under pressure from strong Dollar
The was slightly higher in Asian trade on Friday and hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Gold prices had fallen sharply after the Fed policy meeting indicated only two more rate cuts in 2025, against previous expectations of four.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds
Other precious metals were also muted on Friday. were unchanged at $954.50 an ounce, while were steady at $30.380 an ounce.
Copper gains on concentrate shortage news, strong dollar caps gains
Among industrial metals, copper prices were higher after a Reuters report showed China’s leading copper smelters have set lower processing charge guidance for the first quarter of 2025 compared to this quarter, reflecting an ongoing shortage of copper concentrates.
At a meeting in Shanghai, representatives from the China Smelters Purchase Team agreed on new rates for copper concentrate treatment and refining charges, setting them at $25 per metric ton and 2.5 cents per pound, down 28.6% from the fourth-quarter guidance of $35 per ton and 3.5 cents per pound.
The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.4% to $8,950.50 a ton, while February edged down 0.3% to $4.0945 a pound.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Oil prices edge higher on China stimulus, lower U.S. inventories forecast
Investing.com– Oil prices rose slightly on Friday as a holiday-shortened week led to thin volumes, while traders exercised caution around the year-end while assessing the outlook for the upcoming year.
At 07:28 ET (12:28 GMT), were slightly up at $73.74 a barrel, and edged higher to $69.71 a barrel.
Trading volumes were thin ahead of the new year’s start as many institutional investors and traders typically take time off during the holiday season. Additionally, year-end profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing reduce trading activity.
EIA data awaited after API shows fall in US crude inventories
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, is scheduled to release its weekly report later on Friday.
These figures provide insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market, influencing pricing and economic decisions.
Earlier this week, media reports stated that U.S. oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, citing the American Petroleum Institute (API) data.
“Probably we are moving back up again in anticipation of a crude draw in the U.S.,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “Some support for oil might come soon from cold weather supporting demand.”
This drawdown indicates a tightening supply in the U.S. crude oil market, which has implications for global oil prices. Following the API’s report, oil prices had edged higher, supported by hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China and the reported decline in U.S. crude inventories.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.
China stimulus hopes persist
Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the World Bank revised its economic growth forecast for China upward for 2024 and 2025 but cautioned that weak household and business confidence, combined with challenges in the property sector, would continue to hinder growth in the coming year.
The outlook for oil demand hinges on the hope that China, the world’s largest oil importer, can revive its economy, especially as there are concerns about a potential oversupply due to expected increases in production from non-OPEC countries.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Shell shuts down oil processing unit to investigate leak, Singapore’s port authority says
(Reuters) -Shell has shut down an oil processing unit at its Pulau Bukom facility to investigate a suspected leak, Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) and National Environment Agency (NEA) said on Friday.
The oil company estimates that a few tonnes of refined oil products, along with cooling water discharge used in the refining process, have leaked.
Pulau Bukom, site of Singapore’s first refinery, now houses Shell (LON:)’s only energy and chemicals park in Asia, according to the company’s website.
Shell confirmed in an emailed statement to Reuters that oil sheens were spotted alongside a wharf on Dec. 26, 2024 at Shell Energy and Park Singapore.
The company stated it has taken steps to contain the leak and prevent it from spreading into the sea and has deployed boats alongside the MPA to clean up light oil sheens observed near the leak site.
The MPA said investigations are ongoing, and navigation traffic in the area remains unaffected.
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