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Commodities

Oil prices rebound from lows; inflation data, OPEC news awaited

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Investing.com– Oil prices rose Tuesday, continuing to rebound from more than three-month lows, with the focus on upcoming inflation readings this week as well as a meeting if top producers to discuss output levels.

At 07:40 ET (11:40 GMT),  rose 0.1% to $82.94 a barrel, while gained 1.4% to $78.85 a barrel. 

Crude prices rose over 1% on Monday in muted trade owing to public holidays in the UK and the U.S., bouncing back after sinking to the lowest levels since early-February last week. 

Inflation data awaited for more rate cues 

Significant attention this week will be on key inflation readings from the U.S. and other major economies, with traders looking for more information over future monetary policies and the impact on global growth going forward.

In the U.S., data, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is due Friday, and is expected to show some mild cooling in inflation. But the reading is still expected to remain well above the Fed’s 2% annual target, giving the bank more impetus to keep rates higher for longer.

Fears of the Fed maintaining a tight monetary policy for a lengthy period of time were a key point of pressure on oil prices last week, after several Fed officials warned that sticky inflation will keep the bank from loosening early. They also boosted the , which further weighed on prices.

High rates are expected to stymie economic activity, in turn weighing on oil demand. 

Inflation data from the , and are also due through the week, and are likely to factor into monetary policy expectations for their respective central banks.

Markets were also seen pricing in a potential interest rate cut by the European Central Bank next week.

Beyond the inflation data, readings from top oil importer China are also due this week. 

OPEC+ meeting awaited for supply cues 

The focus was also on an upcoming meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+), which is set to take place online on June 2.

Traders will be looking to see if the cartel agrees to extend its current voluntary production cuts, of 2.2 million barrels per day, past a June 30 deadline.

The OPEC+ has slashed production over the past year to support oil price, but this has provided only fleeting support to prices, as markets fretted over sluggish demand. 

“The recent weakness in the market increases the likelihood of a full rollover of OPEC+ additional voluntary cuts at least through the third quarter of this year,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“Expectations for such action are growing, so anything less will disappoint the market. However, fundamentally the market only needs to see a partial rollover, so there is a risk that OPEC+ overtightens the market in the third quarter of the year.”

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

Commodities

Oil prices settle lower after weak August jobs report adds to demand concerns

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Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand. 

At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.

U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report

The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.

Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.

Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.

Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.

U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions 

Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia. 

The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine. 

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Commodities

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ production increases to start in December

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(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note on Friday.

OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.

However Goldman Sachs maintained its range of $70-85 per barrel and a December 2025 Brent forecast at $74 per barrel.

The investment bank expects the effects of a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the upcoming months to be counterbalanced by easing effects from the current softness in China’s demand and faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view of the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 30, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

“We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions,” Goldman Sachs said.

Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel on Friday, their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48 on Friday, or 2.14%, to $67.67, their lowest since June 2023. [O/R]

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Citi, Bank of America see oil prices potentially going to $60

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Investing.com — Strategists at Citi Research said oil prices could decline to around $60 per barrel by 2025, citing a significant market surplus as the primary driver.

While recent supply disruptions in Libya and a delayed production cut unwinding by OPEC+ have offered short-term support for Brent prices in the $70-72 range, Citi views this as temporary.

“At the time of writing, markets have not reacted to the OPEC+ decision, with Brent around flat to the 4 September close. Still, the Libyan situation could take months rather than a week to resolve, strategists wrote.

They highlight the likelihood of a strong market surplus emerging next year, pushing prices lower.

“We recommend selling on a bounce toward ~$80 Brent, as we look ahead to moves down to the $60 range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus emerges,” the note states.

OPEC+ has delayed the start of its planned production cut unwind from October 2024 to December 2024, with the process now set to conclude by the end of 2025. This decision comes in response to recent market weakness and price declines, despite ongoing disruptions to Libyan oil supplies and broader economic concerns in the U.S. and China.

Separately, Bank of America’s Commodities Research team has revised down its price forecast to $75 per barrel for the second half of 2024, down from nearly $90, and for 2025, reduced from $80.

The team cites concerns about growing global oil inventories despite assuming OPEC+ will delay planned production increases. They note that weaker demand growth, combined with record OPEC+ spare capacity exceeding 5 million barrels per day, has dimmed the outlook for oil prices.

“In effect, we now see Brent oil prices moving from the top toward the middle of our unchanged $60-80/bbl medium-term range faster than previously warned,” BofA strategists said. This surplus in capacity, along with slower demand, also reduces the risk of price spikes from potential geopolitical disruptions.

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