Commodities
Oil prices rebound from multi-month lows on Mideast tensions
By Paul Carsten
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices bounced back from multi-month lows on Wednesday on concerns that an escalating conflict in the Middle East could hurt oil production, even as worries about weak crude demand persisted.
futures were up $1.10, or 1.4%, to $77.58 a barrel at 1055 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.05, also 1.4%, to $74.25.
On Monday, Brent futures slumped to their lowest since early January and WTI futures touched their lowest since February, as a global stock market rout deepened on concerns of a potential recession in the United States after weak jobs data.
“Whether the reversal in risk asset prices will prove to be a mere bottom-picking before the sell-off continues or investors have taken the time to thoroughly assess the medium-term implications of the U.S. job data is open for debate,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.
Both oil benchmarks broke a three-session declining streak on Tuesday, and tensions in the Middle East continued to stoke supply concerns in Wednesday’s trading session.
The Middle East is bracing for a possible new wave of attacks by Iran and its allies following last week’s killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, with concern rising that the conflict in Gaza is turning into a wider Middle East war.
U.S. officials have been in constant contact with allies and partners in the region and there is a “clear consensus” that no one should escalate the situation, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday.
“Any escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could see a greater risk of disruptions to supplies from the region,” ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said.
Prices slipped earlier in Wednesday’s trading session, following U.S. data showing an unexpected build in crude oil and gasoline inventories.
oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. [API/S]
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release weekly inventory data at 10:30 a.m. (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.
Supporting the bearish demand view, Chinese trade data showed that July daily crude oil imports fell to the lowest level since September 2022.
By Robert Harvey
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil futures jumped by almost 1% on Monday as a potential hurricane approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast helped oil prices to recover some of the previous week’s heavy losses.
rose 58 cents, or 0.82%, to $71.64 a barrel by 1125 GMT while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 61 cents, or 0.9%, at $68.28.
Prices of Brent crude had fallen in each of the past six trading sessions, retreating by more than 11%, or nearly $9 a barrel, to register the lowest closing price since December 2021 on Friday.
Analysts said Monday’s rebound was partly in response to a potential hurricane near the U.S. Gulf Coast while Libyan supply disruption has also been supporting prices.
Libya’s NOC late last week declared force majeure on several crude cargoes loading from the Es Sider port, with oil production curtailed by a political standoff over the central bank and oil revenue, four trading sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday. The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for about 60% of U.S. refining capacity.
“A small recovery in prices is under way this morning, inspired by hurricane warnings that might threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, but the wider conversation remains on where demand will come from and what OPEC+ can do,” said PVM analyst John Evans.
The OPEC+ oil producer group last week agreed to delay a planned output increase of 180,000 barrels per day for October by two months in reaction to tumbling crude prices
Trading houses Gunvor and Trafigura expect oil prices to range between $60 and $70 a barrel because of sluggish Chinese demand and persistent oversupply, executives told the APPEC conference in Singapore on Monday.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price forecast for the fourth quarter to $75 a barrel from $80, adding that prices are likely to remain around that level unless demand weakens further.
The weakness in Chinese demand is driven by an economic slowdown and growing shift towards lower-carbon fuels, said speakers at the APPEC energy industry event.
Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020.
A U.S. jobs report on Friday showed that August non-farm payrolls increased by less than market watchers had expected.
A decline in the jobless rate could slow the pace at which the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, analysts said. Lower interest rates typically increase oil demand by spurring economic growth.
(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note on Friday.
OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.
However Goldman Sachs maintained its range of $70-85 per barrel and a December 2025 Brent forecast at $74 per barrel.
The investment bank expects the effects of a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the upcoming months to be counterbalanced by easing effects from the current softness in China’s demand and faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.
“We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions,” Goldman Sachs said.
Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel on Friday, their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48 on Friday, or 2.14%, to $67.67, their lowest since June 2023. [O/R]
Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand.
At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.
U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report
The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.
Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.
Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.
U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions
Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia.
The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
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