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Commodities

Oil prices rise on China stimulus amid Mideast ceasefire push

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By Ron Bousso

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose to $75 a barrel on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session as investors weighed the impact of China’s stimulus measures to boost its economy, and concerns over tension in the Middle East persisted.

futures for December delivery rose 68 cents, or 0.92%, to $74.97 at 1033 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery were up 66 cents at $71.22 a barrel on the contract’s last day as the front month.

The more actively traded WTI futures for December delivery, which will soon become the front month, rose 70 cents, or 1%, to $70.74 per barrel.

Both Brent and WTI rose nearly 2% on Monday, recouping some of last week’s more than 7% decline, with no letup of fighting in the Middle East and the market nervous that Israel’s expected retaliation against Iran could disrupt oil supply.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday, the first stop on a Middle East tour in which he will seek to revive talks to end the Gaza war and contain the spillover conflict in Lebanon.

“Crude oil prices have been fluctuating in response to mixed news from the Middle East, as the situation alternates between escalation and de-escalation,” said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities.

The market continued to weigh the implications for fuel demand of China’s stimulus measures and increased U.S. economic activity, he added

Beijing on Monday cut benchmark lending rates as part of stimulus measures to revive the economy as data last week showed it had grown at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter.

China’s oil demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 as the world’s No. 2 economy electrifies its car fleet and grows at a slower pace, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday.

© Reuters. A tug boat pushes an oil barge through New York Harbor past the Statue of Liberty in New York City, U.S., May 24, 2022.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/ File Photo

Still, Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:) is “fairly bullish” on China’s oil demand especially in light of the government’s stimulus package which aims to boost growth, the head of the state-owned Saudi oil giant said on Monday.

oil stockpiles likely rose last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories were seen down, a preliminary Reuters poll showed.

Commodities

Citi raises average 2025 oil price forecasts, citing geopolitical risks

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(Reuters) – Citi on Wednesday raised its oil price outlook for 2025 due to geopolitical risks centred on Russia and Iran, but noted prices were likely to ease through the second half of the year.

“The oil outlook could see heightened, sustained geopolitical risks in Iran/Russia-Ukraine potentially wipe out the 2025 oil balance surplus, but the Trump administration appears intent on dealmaking,” the bank said in a note.

Citi expects to average $67 a barrel in 2025, up from a previous forecast of $62. It also said it was lifting its average WTI crude forecast to $63/bbl, without giving its former view.

It added that it was revising up its quarterly Brent forecasts to $75/bbl in the first quarter, $68/bbl in the second, $63/bbl in the third, and $60/bbl in the fourth, also without specifying its previous expectations.

The Biden administration on Jan. 10 sanctioned more than 100 tankers and two Russian oil producers, leading to a scramble by top buyers China and India for prompt oil cargoes and a global rush for ship supply as dealers of Russian and Iranian oil sought unsanctioned tankers.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Citigroup Inc (Citi) logo is seen at the SIBOS banking and financial conference in Toronto, Ontario, Canada October 19, 2017. Picture taken October 19, 2017. REUTERS/Chris Helgren/File Photo

U.S. President Donald Trump has since laid out a sweeping plan to maximise oil and gas production, including declaring a national energy emergency to speed up permitting, rolling back environmental protections, and withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate pact.

Citi said the timing and nature of President Trump’s actions regarding Iran and Russia could be defining features of the oil market and pricing during 2025. It forecast a surplus of 0.8 million barrels per day for the year.

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Commodities

Oil prices steady as investors watch Trump policies

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By Arunima Kumar

(Reuters) -Oil prices held steady on Wednesday, with traders closely watching President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and the potential impact of the national energy emergency he declared on his first day in office.

futures inched 4 cents higher, or 0.05%, to $79.33 per barrel at 1246 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures edged 2 cents lower, or 0.03%, to $75.81.

“As more details emerge regarding energy production and trade agreements, traders will assess the balance between economic growth, energy security, and policy risks,” said Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone.

Trump said late on Tuesday that his administration was discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China on Feb. 1, the same day that he previously said Mexico and Canada could face levies of around 25%.

He also vowed duties on European imports, without providing further detail.

“The oil market’s attention is slowly turning away from U.S. sanctions against Russia towards President Trump’s potential trade policy,” said ING analysts, adding that the energy complex has come under pressure with the growing threat of tariffs.

The U.S. president had said his administration would “probably” stop buying oil from Venezuela, among the top suppliers of oil to the country.

Trump laid out a sweeping plan to maximise domestic oil and gas production, including declaring a national energy emergency to speed permitting, rolling back environmental protections, and withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate pact.

Trump’s policy is unlikely to spur near-term energy investment or change U.S. production growth, analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) wrote in a note, adding that it could, however, moderate potential erosion of refined product demand.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

Meanwhile, a rare winter storm churned across the U.S. Gulf Coast on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, North Dakota’s oil production was estimated to be down by between 130,000 and 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to extreme cold weather and related operational challenges, the state’s pipeline authority said on Tuesday.

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Commodities

Oil falls as traders digest Trump tariff reprieve, stronger dollar

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By Enes Tunagur

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors assessed U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to apply new tariffs later than expected while boosting oil and gas production in the United States.

futures were down $1.42, or 1.77%, to $78.73 per barrel at 1116 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down by $1.97, or 2.53%, at $75.91. There was no settlement in the U.S. market on Monday due to a public holiday.

Pressuring prices on Tuesday was a stronger U.S. dollar, as its strengthening makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

“The current weakness is most probably Trump and dollar-related,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

The dollar rebounded after Trump’s comments on imposing tariffs against Mexico and Canada, Varga added, noting that the dollar’s strength is negatively impacting oil prices.

Trump said he was thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico from Feb. 1, rather than on his first day in office as previously promised.

“The initial sense of relief that trade measures weren’t an immediate focus on Trump’s ‘Day 1’ was quickly offset by reports of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February, which saw risk sentiments turn,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

Trump did not impose any sweeping new trade measures right after his inauguration on Monday, but told federal agencies to investigate unfair trade practices by other countries.

The U.S. president also said his administration would “probably” stop buying oil from Venezuela. The U.S. is the second-biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil after China.

Trump also promised to refill strategic reserves, a move that could be bullish for oil prices by boosting demand for oil.

© Reuters. File Photo: A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File photo

Also weighing on prices on Tuesday was the potential end to the shipping disruption in the Red Sea. Yemen’s Houthis on Monday said they will limit their attacks on commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.

“Reopening of the Suez Canal will create a short-term abundance of supply given the shorter journey times, and that may also weigh on prices in the short term,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

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