By Georgina McCartney

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices fell around 3% in 2024, slipping for a second straight year, as the post-pandemic demand recovery stalled, China’s economy struggled, and the U.S. and other non-OPEC producers pumped more crude into a well-supplied global market.

futures on Tuesday, the last trading day of the year, settled up 65 cents, or 0.88%, to $74.64 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up 73 cents, or 1.03%, to $71.72 a barrel.

The Brent benchmark settled down around 3% from its final 2023 closing price of $77.04, while WTI was roughly flat with last year’s final settlement.

In September, Brent futures closed below $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2021, and this year Brent broadly traded under highs seen in the past few years as the post-pandemic demand rebound and price shocks of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine began to fade.

Oil will likely trade around $70 a barrel in 2025 on weak Chinese demand and rising global supplies, offsetting OPEC+-led efforts to shore up the market, a Reuters monthly poll showed on Tuesday.

A weaker demand outlook in China in particular forced both the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut their oil demand growth expectations for 2024 and 2025.

The IEA sees the oil market entering 2025 in surplus, even after OPEC and its allies delayed their plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.

U.S. oil production rose 259,000 barrels per day to a record high of 13.46 million bpd in October, as demand surged to the strongest levels since the pandemic, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Tuesday.

Output is set to rise to a new record of 13.52 million bpd next year, the EIA said.

ECONOMIC, REGULATORY OUTLOOK

Investors will be watching the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-cut outlook for 2025 after Fed bank policymakers this month projected a slower path due to stubbornly high inflation.

Lower interest rates generally spur economic growth, which feeds energy demand.

Some analysts still believe supply could tighten next year depending on President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, including those on sanctions. He has called for an immediate ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, and he could re-impose a so-called maximum pressure policy toward Iran, which could have major implications for oil markets.

“With the possibility of tighter sanctions on Iranian oil with Trump coming in next month, we are looking at a much tighter oil market going into the new year,” said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst for Price Futures Group, also citing firming Indian demand and recent stronger Chinese manufacturing data.

China’s manufacturing activity expanded for a third-straight month in December, though at a slower pace, suggesting a blitz of fresh stimulus is helping to support the world’s second-largest economy.

Buoying prices on Tuesday, the U.S. military said it carried out strikes against Houthi targets in Sanaa and coastal locations in Yemen on Monday and Tuesday.

The Iran-backed militant group has been attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea for more than a year in solidarity with Palestinians amid Israel’s year-long war in Gaza, threatening global oil flows.

Meanwhile, oil stocks fell last week while fuel inventories rose, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Crude stocks fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 27, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.2 million barrels, and distillate stocks climbed by 5.7 million barrels, they said.

By Daksh Grover and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

(Reuters) – Gold prices were set to end a record-breaking year on a positive note on Tuesday as robust central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainties and monetary policy easing fuelled the safe-haven metal’s strongest annual performance since 2010.

rose 0.4% to $2,615.00 per ounce as of 0927 GMT, while U.S. gained 0.4% to $2,627.30.

As one of the best-performing assets of 2024, bullion has gained more than 26% year-to-date, the biggest annual jump since 2010, and last scaled a record high of $2,790.15 on Oct. 31 after a series of record-breaking rallies throughout the year.

“Rising geopolitical risks, demand from central banks, easing of monetary policy by central banks globally, and the resumption of inflows into gold-linked Exchange Traded Commodities (ETC) were the primary drivers of gold’s rally in 2024,” said Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at WisdomTree.

The metal is likely to remain supported in 2025 despite some headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar and a slower pace of easing by the Federal Reserve, Gupta added.

The U.S. Fed delivered a third consecutive interest rate cut this month but flagged fewer rate cuts for 2025.

Donald Trump’s incoming administration was also poised to significantly impact global economic policies, encompassing tariffs, deregulation, and tax amendments.

“Bullion bulls may enjoy another stellar year ahead if global geopolitical tensions are ramped up under Trump 2.0, potentially pushing investors towards this time-tested safe haven,” said Exinity Group Chief Market Analyst Han Tan.

Bullion is often regarded as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks and tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments.

“We expect gold to rally to $3,000/t oz on structurally higher central bank demand and a cyclical and gradual boost to ETF holdings from Fed rate cuts,” said Daan Struyven, commodities strategist at Goldman Sachs.

Spot silver was steady at $28.96 per ounce, palladium rose 0.8% to $910.70, and platinum added 0.4% to $904.56.

Silver is headed for its best year since 2020, having added nearly 22% so far. Platinum and palladium are set for annual losses and have dipped over 7% and 17%, respectively.

Investing.com– Gold prices were largely unchanged in Asian trade on Tuesday amid thin year-end trading, although they were set for stellar yearly gains helped by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts this year.

was largely unchanged at $2,607.65 per ounce, while expiring in February edged 0.2% lower to $2,620.22 an ounce by 00:23 ET (05:23 GMT).

Trading in gold typically sees thin volumes and subdued prices toward the year-end as many institutional traders and market participants close their books ahead of the holiday season.

Gold set for hefty yearly gains

The yellow metal has risen more than 26% in 2024 due to the Fed’s outsized rate cuts earlier this year and geopolitical tensions around the globe.

When interest rates are low, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds or savings accounts. As a result, investors typically allocate more capital to gold as a store of value and a hedge against uncertainty.

While gold prices rose for most of the year, the Fed’s December meeting acted as a bump after it signaled fewer rate cuts in the upcoming year.

Policymakers forecasted only two more rate cuts in 2025, against precious expectations of four cuts as sticky inflation remained a major concern.

Gold prices had fallen sharply after the Fed meeting and have seen subdued movements since then, reflecting a cautious outlook for next year.

With expectations of fewer rate cuts, the dollar has strengthened further, creating pressure on gold.

A stronger dollar weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Other precious metals inched lower on Tuesday. edged 0.4% lower to $913.65 an ounce, while inched down 0.3% to $29.315 an ounce.

Copper subdued even as China’s factory activity expands

Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued as a strong dollar weighed.

The was slightly weaker in Asian trade on Tuesday but remained near a two-year high it reached earlier this month.

Data on Tuesday showed that China’s  expanded for a third straight month in December as a raft of fresh stimulus measures continued to provide support.

However, the rise was slightly lower than market expectations and below the previous month’s reading.

Benchmark  on the London Metal Exchange inched 0.2% lower to $8,925.50 a ton, while February  were largely unchanged at $4.0885 a pound.