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Oil rises on Gaza ceasefire rejection and U.S. stock data

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Oil rises on Gaza ceasefire rejection and U.S. stock data
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

By Robert Harvey

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices gained ground on Thursday as investors considered the impact of Israel’s rejection of a ceasefire offer from Hamas and unexpected drops in U.S. fuel stocks.

futures rose 81 cents, or 1.02%, to $80.02 a barrel by 1239 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 72 cents, or 0.97%, at $74.58.

The Brent benchmark breached $80 a barrel for the first time since Feb. 1 as it extended three straight sessions of gains.

“The recent strength is the result of the Israeli reply to the counter offer from Hamas to the original peace plan, which ensures that hostilities in the Red Sea will continue unabated,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the latest Hamas ceasefire offer and return of hostages held in the Gaza Strip, but U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there was still room for negotiation.

Diplomatic efforts continue, with a Hamas delegation arriving in Cairo on Thursday for ceasefire talks with mediators Egypt and Qatar. Jordan’s King Abdullah, meanwhile, will meet U.S. President Joe Biden to lobby for an end to the war.

Wider Middle East tensions have kept the market on edge since October, with limited progress in talks to end the Gaza conflict.

The Israeli military intensified strikes against the southern border city of Rafah on Thursday, where more than half of Gaza’s population is sheltering.

A stronger than expected drawdown in U.S. gasoline and middle-distillate stocks also buoyed the oil market.

Distillate stockpiles fell by 3.2 million barrels to 127.6 million barrels, Energy Information Administration data showed, versus expectations for a 1 million barrel drop. Gasoline stocks fell by 3.15 million barrels, compared with analyst forecasts of a build of 140,000 barrels.

The draw in fuel stocks, combined with a rise in crude stocks, was a sign of U.S. refinery maintenance, Varga said.

“Ongoing U.S. refinery maintenance, together with Europe being short on diesel, can help maintain the positive sentiment for now,” he added.

Elsewhere, Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield – the largest in the North Sea – will maintain steady production at 755,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the rest of this year, Aker BP (NYSE:) said.

The field has been overproducing compared with originally planned capacity of 660,000 bpd since last year.


Oil dips as Gaza ceasefire expectations grow

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By Georgina McCartney

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices dipped on Tuesday as growing expectations of a ceasefire in the war in Gaza weighed on prices, more than offsetting news of a potential September interest-rate cut in the European Union that supported sentiment.

futures for September fell 39 cents to $82.01 a barrel by 1135 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September dropped 39 cents to $78.01 per barrel.

Oil prices declined in the previous two sessions.

European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September, buoying investor sentiment on Tuesday as lower borrowing costs support oil demand and prices.

The ECB left rates on hold last week but President Christine Lagarde said the next meeting in September was “wide open”, with several policymakers openly considering more cuts as inflationary pressures ease.

“Oil is range-trading, only moderately up, and that support might come from most European stock markets in positive territory, benefiting from a risk on environment,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

In the U.S., some players are also betting on September rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

In the Middle East, efforts to reach a ceasefire deal between Israel and militant group Hamas, under a plan outlined by U.S. President Joe Biden in May and mediated by Egypt and Qatar, have gained momentum over the past month.

Biden is expected to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday at the White House, and the two are to discuss ways to reach a ceasefire, as well as Iran and other topics.

The war in Gaza has lent support to oil prices as investors priced in the risk of potential disruptions to global crude supply.

Meanwhile, traders shrugged off news of Biden’s exit from the presidential campaign.

“With the presidential debate somewhat calmed as Biden tries to clear a path for (Vice President Kamala) Harris, there does seem to be less anxiety around markets and the shelving of what the ‘Trump’ trade might actually mean,” PVM oil analyst, Tamas Varga said in a note.

Weighing on prices, the U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

“Any further weakening of demand signals, combined with a resolution in Gaza, could lead to a further decrease in oil prices,” Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova said, adding that a swell in U.S. inventories last week would be a sign of dented demand.

The American Petroleum Institute, a trade group, is due to release its estimates for last week’s oil inventories on Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. local time (2030 GMT), while official U.S. government data is scheduled to land on Wednesday.

A preliminary Reuters poll of six analysts estimated that stocks, on average, fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week to July 19, while gasoline stocks likely dropped by 500,000 barrels.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows the Yan Dun Jiao 1 bulk carrier in the Vostochny container port in the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

Investors will also be watching out for next month’s mini OPEC+ ministerial meeting, scheduled for Aug. 1, and is unlikely to recommend changing the group’s output policy, three sources told Reuters last week.

Russian oil production is close to the quotas agreed within the OPEC+ group, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday.

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China’s rate cuts fail to revive iron ore and copper: Russell

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By Clyde Russell

LAUNCESTON, Australia (Reuters) -China’s first cut to major short- and long-term interest rates in 11 months drew a distinctly ho-hum reaction from the commodities that usually would be expected to be the biggest beneficiaries.

The People’s Bank of China said on Monday it would cut the seven-day reverse repo rate to 1.7% from 1.8%, and minutes after that announcement benchmark lending rates were lowered by the same margin at the monthly fixing.

But the first broad reduction in interest rates since last August sparked little buying interest in iron ore and copper, the two commodities viewed as having the biggest exposure to the major parts of China’s economy, namely construction and manufacturing.

Benchmark iron ore futures on the Singapore Exchange (OTC:) dipped 0.4% to end at $106.79 a metric ton, while China’s main domestic contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange ended daytime trade 0.3% lower at 798.5 yuan ($109.79) a ton.

London-traded closed down 1.0% at $9,216.50 a ton, the weakest finish since April 8, while Shanghai copper contracts ended at 76,220 yuan, down 0.86% and also the lowest close since April 8.

The lacklustre price response to the interest rate cuts follows the prevailing view that China’s policymakers aren’t really pulling out all the stops to boost the world’s second-biggest economy.

The twice a decade political event known as the plenum, held last week failed to inspire confidence that Beijing is on track to lift flagging economic growth by sparking a recovery in the residential property sector.

The risk that Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November and delivers on his promise to increase trade tariffs on China and others is also leading market watchers to be cautious about China’s economic prospects.

However, the worries over China are largely limited to sentiment where commodities are concerned, with both iron ore and copper showing trade patterns more related to pricing dynamics.


China’s iron ore imports are expected to remain robust in July, with commodity analysts Kpler tracking arrivals of around 111 million tons.

If the customs number comes in close to the Kpler estimate, it would represent a strong gain on the official 97.61 million tons reported in June.

China’s iron ore imports have been fairly strong so far this year, with customs data showing arrivals of 611.18 million tons in the first half, up 35.05 million, or 6.2% from the same period in 2023.

But much of the increase has ended up going toward rebuilding stockpiles, with port inventories monitored by consultants SteelHome rising 35.1 million tons since the end of last year to 149.6 million in the week to July 24.

Steel mills and traders have been taking advantage of the declining trend in iron ore prices so far this year to boost inventory levels, which had dropped to a seven-year low in October of last year.

Copper imports and exports also appear to be responding to market dynamics, with China’s arrivals of unwrought metal dropping sharply in June to 436,000 tons, a 15.6% slide from May’s 514,000.

This was in response to copper prices rising sharply, with London contracts reaching a record high of $11,104.50 a ton on May 20.

The higher prices effectively closed the arbitrage window for China’s traders, and instead of buying copper to add to inventories as they did earlier this year, they have started selling into the global market.

China’s exports of refined copper surged to a record high of 157,751 tons in June, more than double May’s level and 55% higher than the previous high from 12 years ago.

Copper stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have started easing from four-year highs, dropping to 309,182 tons in the week to July 19, having declined from the 51-month high of 339,964 in the week to June 7.

The overall message from China’s iron ore and copper markets is that traders are more responsive to global pricing and market dynamics than policy moves.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Employees work at a copper smelter in Yantai, Shandong province, China April 26, 2023. REUTERS/Siyi Liu

While lower interest rates and other stimulus measures may eventually translate into higher physical demand, for now China’s demand for iron ore and copper is better explained by price moves.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

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Goldman still bullish on gold, China underpinning demand outlook

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on — Goldman Sachs said it remains bullish on in a note on Monday, citing both potential Fed rate cuts and China’s unwavering demand as key drivers, which have helped push gold prices to record highs. This positive outlook comes despite rising US interest rates, which usually tends to lower gold prices. 

While the Chinese market is sensitive to price fluctuations, the brokerage sees structural changes creating an “unshakeable bull market” for gold in China. Lower interest rates and rising economic uncertainties are boosting demand, even as surging prices cool jewelry purchases. 

Additionally, China’s central bank has been on a gold-buying spree in recent months, stockpiling hundreds of tonnes. Analysts say that these significant purchases are driven by concerns about US financial sanctions and the sustainability of US sovereign debt.

Goldman Sachs underscores the significance of central bank gold purchases, which have seen a threefold increase since mid-2022. “We still see very significant value in long gold positions, and maintain our bullish $2,700 forecast (a 12% increase over current spot prices) for 2025,” they added.

This, coupled with the anticipated return of Western capital to the gold market due to potential Fed rate cuts, paints a highly optimistic long-term picture for gold. 

While the Chinese market might experience short-term adjustments in demand due to price sensitivity, the overall outlook remains positive.


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