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Commodities

Oil set for first weekly gain in three weeks

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By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose more than 1% Friday, heading for their first weekly rise since the end of November, as additional sanctions on Russia ratcheted up supply worries, while a surplus outlook weighed on markets.

futures rose 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $73.75 a barrel by 1308 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 32 cents, also 0.5%, at $70.34.

Both contracts are on track for a weekly gain of more than 3% as concerns about supply disruption caused by tighter EU sanctions on Russia and potential similar moves by the U.S., and hopes that Chinese stimulus measures announced this week could lift demand in the world’s No. 2 oil consumer support prices.

“The EU’s ramping up of sanctions on Russia is still causing bullish reverberations and as the US is making noises in which it might join in, the idea of less Russian oil on the water will remain fresh,” PVM oil analyst John Evans said.

European Union ambassadors agreed a 15th package of sanctions on Russia this week over its war against Ukraine, targeting its shadow tanker fleet.

Additionally, Britain, France and Germany told the United Nations Security Council that they are ready – if necessary – to trigger a so-called “snap back” of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Meanwhile, Chinese data this week showed crude imports grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, driven by lower prices and stockpiling.

“We have seen a bit of a recovery in refinery margins since the September lows, but don’t think it’s anything to justify the November crude import volumes,” said Warren Patterson, ING’s head of commodities research.

Crude imports by China, the world’s largest importer, are set to stay elevated into early 2025 as refiners opt to lift more supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia, drawn by lower prices, while independent refiners rush to use their quota.

The International Energy Agency increased its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 990,000 bpd last month, thanks to China’s recent stimulus measures, it said in its monthly oil market report.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo

However, it forecast a surplus for next year, when non-OPEC+ nations are set to boost supply by about 1.5 million bpd, driven by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the United States.

Investors are also betting that the Fed will cut borrowing costs next week and follow up next year with further reductions, after economic data showed weekly claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose.

Commodities

Copper prices dip over 1% following Federal Reserve’s fewer rate cuts signal

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Investing.com — Copper prices are down more than 1% after the Federal Reserve hinted at fewer rate cuts for the upcoming year.

The shift to a more hawkish stance by the Fed has resulted in an increase in bond yields, a surge in the strength of the dollar to 25-month highs, and a spike in volatility. This shift has also led to a sharp decline in key commodity currencies.

Market participants have expressed concern that there isn’t much on the annual calendar to halt this downward trend. The three-month London Metal Exchange (LME) contract has registered a 1.5% decrease, trading at $8,912 a ton.

In addition to the Federal Reserve’s stance, looming U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and uncertainties surrounding China’s domestic demand outlook continue to pressure the market.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Commodities

Gold prices rebound from Fed-driven rout, hawkish comments cloud outlook

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Investing.com– Gold prices rebounded from a one-month low on Thursday as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected, although the central bank’s hawkish stance on future rate cuts clouded the outlook for bullion.

Gold prices had dropped more than 2% overnight after the Fed’s policy meeting indicated fewer rate cuts in 2025, as sticky inflation remained a major concern.

 jumped as much as 1.3% to $2,618.11, while  expiring in February dropped 1.2% to $2,620.79 an ounce by 22:51 ET (03:51 GMT). 

Spot gold rebounds, but outlook dim amid slower rate cuts

The Fed reduced by 25 basis points but signaled it will adopt a slower pace for future cuts.

Lower interest rates bode well for gold prices as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.

However, gold futures fell sharply as the rates are expected to remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut. Markets have ruled out chances of a cut in January and now expect just two more cuts in 2025, against their earlier expectations of four.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said further reductions depend on progress in curbing persistent inflation, reflecting policymakers’ adjustments to potential economic shifts under the incoming Donald Trump administration.

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance was aimed at curbing inflation, but it also signals confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. This risk-on sentiment can reduce the demand for safe-haven assets, further dampening bullion’s prospects. 

With fewer cuts expected in 2025, the is expected to strengthen further. The greenback surged to an over two-year high on Wednesday.

Additionally, the maintained its interest rates on Thursday, as policymakers remained cautious over Japan’s economic outlook and the path of inflation.

Among other precious metals,  rose 0.7% to $928.90 an ounce, while slumped 2.7% to $29.922 an ounce.

Copper falls on as dollar hits 2-yr high

Among industrial metals, copper prices extended declines on Thursday after the Fed’s hawkish stance bolstered the dollar. The red metal took limited support from reports of more fiscal spending in top importer China over the coming year.

The  rose 0.1% in Asian trade on Thursday and was at an over two-year high after the Fed meeting.

Benchmark  on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.4% to $8,921.50 a ton, while one-month  were largely unchanged at $4.089 a pound.

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Commodities

Oil slips on demand concerns after Fed signals slower rate cuts

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By Colleen Howe, Trixie Yap and Anna Hirtenstein

(Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, which could hurt economic growth, reduce fuel demand and strengthen the dollar.

futures declined by 29 cents to $73.10 a barrel by 1249 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 16 cents to $70.42.

The declines gave back Wednesday’s gains on a drop in stocks and the Fed’s expected rate cut of 25 basis points.

Prices weakened after U.S. central bankers issued projections pointing to two quarter-point cuts in 2025 on concern over rising inflation. That was half a point less than they had flagged in September.

“The bottom line for oil is the longer the Fed stays on pause, the stronger the U.S. dollar. This tends to generate headwinds for commodities like oil,” said Harry Tchilinguirian at Onyx Capital Group.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive while higher interest rates weigh on economic growth, potentially reducing demand for oil.

Chinese refining giant Sinopec (OTC:), meanwhile, expects China’s oil consumption to peak by 2027, it said on Thursday.

“The demand-supply balance going into 2025 continues to look unfavourable and predictions of more than 1.0 million bpd demand growth in 2025 look stretched in our opinion. Even if OPEC+ continues to withhold production, the market may still be in surplus,” said Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank energy sector team leader.

Though demand in the first half of December rose year on year, volumes remained lower than expected by some analysts.

JP Morgan analysts said that global oil demand growth for December so far was 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) less than it had expected, adding that global demand this year has risen by 200,000 bpd less than it had forecast in November 2023.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo

Official data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 934,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 13. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a drawdown of 1.6 million barrels. [EIA/S]

While the decline was less than expected, the market found support from last week’s rise in U.S. crude exports by 1.8 million bpd to 4.89 million bpd.

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