Commodities
Oil set for weekly loss despite gain on OPEC+ output decision
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
By Noah Browning
LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose slightly on Friday after the OPEC+ group’s decision to keep its production policy unchanged, but benchmarks remained on track for weekly losses on China demand growth fears.
futures were up 27 cents, or 0.3%, at $78.97 a barrel by 1215 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $74.05.
The Brent benchmark had approached $85 a barrel in Monday trading.
Two OPEC+ sources said on Thursday that the group has kept its output policy unchanged and will decide in March whether to extend the voluntary oil production cuts in place for the first quarter.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, has output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in place for the first quarter, as announced in November.
“What has been already been made clear last year is that the reversal of those cuts will be gradual,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that the bank expects an extension into the second quarter.
Also supporting oil prices was the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25-5.50% range and comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying interest rates had peaked and would move lower in the coming months.
Lower interest rates would reduce consumer borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and oil demand.
However, oil prices were still heading for weekly losses of about 5% after unsubstantiated reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas capped gains and caused the contracts to settle more than 2% lower on Thursday.
Concern over China’s economic recovery continued to linger, with the International Monetary Fund on Friday forecasting that the country’s economic growth would slow to 4.6% in 2024 and decline further in the medium to about 3.5% in 2028.
Meanwhile, concern over shipping dragged on after a military spokesperson for the Iran-aligned Houthi group said on Thursday that attacks on shipping will persist until Israel’s “siege on the Gaza Strip is lifted”.
Commodities
Oil prices settle lower after weak August jobs report adds to demand concerns
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/oil-prices-settle-lower-after-weak-august-jobs-report-addsto-demand-concerns_66dc53fb8f210.jpeg)
Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand.
At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.
U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report
The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.
Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.
Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.
U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions
Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia.
The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Commodities
Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ production increases to start in December
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(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note on Friday.
OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.
However Goldman Sachs maintained its range of $70-85 per barrel and a December 2025 Brent forecast at $74 per barrel.
The investment bank expects the effects of a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the upcoming months to be counterbalanced by easing effects from the current softness in China’s demand and faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.
“We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions,” Goldman Sachs said.
Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel on Friday, their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48 on Friday, or 2.14%, to $67.67, their lowest since June 2023. [O/R]
Commodities
Citi, Bank of America see oil prices potentially going to $60
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/citi-bank-of-america-see-oil-prices-potentially-going-to60_66db0275685ed.jpeg)
Investing.com — Strategists at Citi Research said oil prices could decline to around $60 per barrel by 2025, citing a significant market surplus as the primary driver.
While recent supply disruptions in Libya and a delayed production cut unwinding by OPEC+ have offered short-term support for Brent prices in the $70-72 range, Citi views this as temporary.
“At the time of writing, markets have not reacted to the OPEC+ decision, with Brent around flat to the 4 September close. Still, the Libyan situation could take months rather than a week to resolve, strategists wrote.
They highlight the likelihood of a strong market surplus emerging next year, pushing prices lower.
“We recommend selling on a bounce toward ~$80 Brent, as we look ahead to moves down to the $60 range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus emerges,” the note states.
OPEC+ has delayed the start of its planned production cut unwind from October 2024 to December 2024, with the process now set to conclude by the end of 2025. This decision comes in response to recent market weakness and price declines, despite ongoing disruptions to Libyan oil supplies and broader economic concerns in the U.S. and China.
Separately, Bank of America’s Commodities Research team has revised down its price forecast to $75 per barrel for the second half of 2024, down from nearly $90, and for 2025, reduced from $80.
The team cites concerns about growing global oil inventories despite assuming OPEC+ will delay planned production increases. They note that weaker demand growth, combined with record OPEC+ spare capacity exceeding 5 million barrels per day, has dimmed the outlook for oil prices.
“In effect, we now see Brent oil prices moving from the top toward the middle of our unchanged $60-80/bbl medium-term range faster than previously warned,” BofA strategists said. This surplus in capacity, along with slower demand, also reduces the risk of price spikes from potential geopolitical disruptions.
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