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Commodities

Oil settles down as ease of supply risks drives weekly loss

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By Nicole Jao

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices edged lower on Friday and posted a weekly decline of more than 3%, pressured by easing concern over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the prospect of increased supply in 2025 even as OPEC+ is expected to extend output cuts.

fell 34 cents, or 0.46%, to settle at $72.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 72 cents, or 1.05%, to settle at $68, from the last close before Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Trading activity was muted because of the U.S. public holiday.

For the week, Brent declined 3.1% while WTI lost 4.8%.

Four Israeli tanks entered a Lebanese border village, Lebanon’s official news agency said on Friday. The ceasefire that took effect on Wednesday has reduced oil’s risk premium, sending prices lower, despite accusations of violations by both sides.

However, the Middle East conflict has not disrupted supply, which is expected to be more ample in 2025. The International Energy Agency sees the prospect of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of excess supply, equal to more than 1% of global output.

“The updated snapshot insinuates that next year promises to be looser than the current one and oil prices are to average below the 2024 level,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1. OPEC+ is expected to decide on a further extension to production cuts at the meeting.

© Reuters. An aerial view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/ File Photo

“Following two postponements, the group has to consider the risk of further price weakness amid the release of currently unwanted barrels, not least because expectations for robust production from non-OPEC+ producers next year could lead to a crude surplus,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

Brent could average $74.53 a barrel in 2025, a Reuters poll of 41 analysts suggests. That marked the seventh consecutive monthly downward revision in the Reuters poll.

Commodities

Copper prices dip over 1% following Federal Reserve’s fewer rate cuts signal

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Investing.com — Copper prices are down more than 1% after the Federal Reserve hinted at fewer rate cuts for the upcoming year.

The shift to a more hawkish stance by the Fed has resulted in an increase in bond yields, a surge in the strength of the dollar to 25-month highs, and a spike in volatility. This shift has also led to a sharp decline in key commodity currencies.

Market participants have expressed concern that there isn’t much on the annual calendar to halt this downward trend. The three-month London Metal Exchange (LME) contract has registered a 1.5% decrease, trading at $8,912 a ton.

In addition to the Federal Reserve’s stance, looming U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and uncertainties surrounding China’s domestic demand outlook continue to pressure the market.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Commodities

Gold prices rebound from Fed-driven rout, hawkish comments cloud outlook

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Investing.com– Gold prices rebounded from a one-month low on Thursday as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected, although the central bank’s hawkish stance on future rate cuts clouded the outlook for bullion.

Gold prices had dropped more than 2% overnight after the Fed’s policy meeting indicated fewer rate cuts in 2025, as sticky inflation remained a major concern.

 jumped as much as 1.3% to $2,618.11, while  expiring in February dropped 1.2% to $2,620.79 an ounce by 22:51 ET (03:51 GMT). 

Spot gold rebounds, but outlook dim amid slower rate cuts

The Fed reduced by 25 basis points but signaled it will adopt a slower pace for future cuts.

Lower interest rates bode well for gold prices as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.

However, gold futures fell sharply as the rates are expected to remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut. Markets have ruled out chances of a cut in January and now expect just two more cuts in 2025, against their earlier expectations of four.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said further reductions depend on progress in curbing persistent inflation, reflecting policymakers’ adjustments to potential economic shifts under the incoming Donald Trump administration.

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance was aimed at curbing inflation, but it also signals confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. This risk-on sentiment can reduce the demand for safe-haven assets, further dampening bullion’s prospects. 

With fewer cuts expected in 2025, the is expected to strengthen further. The greenback surged to an over two-year high on Wednesday.

Additionally, the maintained its interest rates on Thursday, as policymakers remained cautious over Japan’s economic outlook and the path of inflation.

Among other precious metals,  rose 0.7% to $928.90 an ounce, while slumped 2.7% to $29.922 an ounce.

Copper falls on as dollar hits 2-yr high

Among industrial metals, copper prices extended declines on Thursday after the Fed’s hawkish stance bolstered the dollar. The red metal took limited support from reports of more fiscal spending in top importer China over the coming year.

The  rose 0.1% in Asian trade on Thursday and was at an over two-year high after the Fed meeting.

Benchmark  on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.4% to $8,921.50 a ton, while one-month  were largely unchanged at $4.089 a pound.

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Commodities

Oil slips on demand concerns after Fed signals slower rate cuts

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By Colleen Howe, Trixie Yap and Anna Hirtenstein

(Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, which could hurt economic growth, reduce fuel demand and strengthen the dollar.

futures declined by 29 cents to $73.10 a barrel by 1249 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 16 cents to $70.42.

The declines gave back Wednesday’s gains on a drop in stocks and the Fed’s expected rate cut of 25 basis points.

Prices weakened after U.S. central bankers issued projections pointing to two quarter-point cuts in 2025 on concern over rising inflation. That was half a point less than they had flagged in September.

“The bottom line for oil is the longer the Fed stays on pause, the stronger the U.S. dollar. This tends to generate headwinds for commodities like oil,” said Harry Tchilinguirian at Onyx Capital Group.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive while higher interest rates weigh on economic growth, potentially reducing demand for oil.

Chinese refining giant Sinopec (OTC:), meanwhile, expects China’s oil consumption to peak by 2027, it said on Thursday.

“The demand-supply balance going into 2025 continues to look unfavourable and predictions of more than 1.0 million bpd demand growth in 2025 look stretched in our opinion. Even if OPEC+ continues to withhold production, the market may still be in surplus,” said Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank energy sector team leader.

Though demand in the first half of December rose year on year, volumes remained lower than expected by some analysts.

JP Morgan analysts said that global oil demand growth for December so far was 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) less than it had expected, adding that global demand this year has risen by 200,000 bpd less than it had forecast in November 2023.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo

Official data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 934,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 13. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a drawdown of 1.6 million barrels. [EIA/S]

While the decline was less than expected, the market found support from last week’s rise in U.S. crude exports by 1.8 million bpd to 4.89 million bpd.

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