Commodities
Oil steady but on track for weekly drop on firmer supply outlook
By Paul Carsten
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices held steady on Friday but remained on track for a weekly fall as investors weighed expectations for increased output from Libya and the broader OPEC+ group against fresh stimulus from top importer China.
futures were up 8 cents, or 0.1%, at $71.68 per barrel as of 1130 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.78.
On a weekly basis, Brent was down almost 4%, while WTI was on track to lose nearly 6%.
“The recent decision by OPEC+ to ramp up production has only added to the gloom,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, adding that the oil market has been struggling with weakening demand over the past few months.
“While it’s uncertain whether Chinese stimulus will translate into higher fuel demand, it may still offer some respite to the oil market.”
China’s central bank on Friday lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system, aiming to pull economic growth back towards this year’s target of roughly 5%.
More fiscal measures are expected to be announced before Chinese holidays starting on Oct. 1 after a meeting of the Communist Party’s top leaders showed an increased sense of urgency about mounting economic headwinds.
Meanwhile, rival factions staking claims for control of the Central Bank of Libya signed an agreement to end their dispute on Thursday. The dispute had seen crude exports fall to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) this month from more than 1 million last month.
Separately, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+, will go ahead with plans to increase production by 180,000 bpd each month starting from December, two OPEC+ sources said.
A Financial Times report on Wednesday said the planned increase is due to Saudi Arabia’s decision to abandon a $100 oil price target and gain market share.
Saudi Arabia has repeatedly denied targeting a certain oil price, and sources at the wider group told Reuters that the plans to raise output from December do not represent any major change from existing policy.
“These extra barrels will not make an unexpected re-appearance, have been accounted for in forecasts, and the move will entail a reduction in the group’s spare production capacity,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.
Commodities
Oil steady but on track for weekly drop on firmer supply outlook
By Paul Carsten
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices held steady on Friday but remained on track for a weekly fall as investors weighed expectations for increased output from Libya and the broader OPEC+ group against fresh stimulus from top importer China.
futures were up 8 cents, or 0.1%, at $71.68 per barrel as of 1130 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.78.
On a weekly basis, Brent was down almost 4%, while WTI was on track to lose nearly 6%.
“The recent decision by OPEC+ to ramp up production has only added to the gloom,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, adding that the oil market has been struggling with weakening demand over the past few months.
“While it’s uncertain whether Chinese stimulus will translate into higher fuel demand, it may still offer some respite to the oil market.”
China’s central bank on Friday lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system, aiming to pull economic growth back towards this year’s target of roughly 5%.
More fiscal measures are expected to be announced before Chinese holidays starting on Oct. 1 after a meeting of the Communist Party’s top leaders showed an increased sense of urgency about mounting economic headwinds.
Meanwhile, rival factions staking claims for control of the Central Bank of Libya signed an agreement to end their dispute on Thursday. The dispute had seen crude exports fall to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) this month from more than 1 million last month.
Separately, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+, will go ahead with plans to increase production by 180,000 bpd each month starting from December, two OPEC+ sources said.
A Financial Times report on Wednesday said the planned increase is due to Saudi Arabia’s decision to abandon a $100 oil price target and gain market share.
Saudi Arabia has repeatedly denied targeting a certain oil price, and sources at the wider group told Reuters that the plans to raise output from December do not represent any major change from existing policy.
“These extra barrels will not make an unexpected re-appearance, have been accounted for in forecasts, and the move will entail a reduction in the group’s spare production capacity,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.
Commodities
Analysis-US Gulf Coast oil prices to take center stage as exports dominate
By Arathy Somasekhar
HOUSTON (Reuters) – Rising oil exports are boosting the prominence of Gulf Coast price benchmarks and buoying trading volumes on Houston contracts, eroding the significance of the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub.
Since U.S. WTI Midland crude oil transactions joined the dated price assessment a year ago, U.S. oil exports have overshadowed the role of Cushing as a storage and pricing hub, traders and analysts said.
Cushing has been the delivery and pricing point for West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) since 1983. The benchmark is currently used to price major U.S. crude grades for physical delivery, trading at a differential to WTI.
However, not long after the U.S. lifted its ban on crude exports in 2015 amid a shale boom that turned the country into the world’s top producer, both the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:) and CME Group (NASDAQ:), which owns NYMEX, launched contracts to trade and deliver crude from Midland, Texas, to terminals around Houston.
Average daily volumes on CME’s WTI Houston contract more than doubled so far in September to a record high year on year, the exchange said.
An all-time high of over 18 million barrels were delivered against ICE’s competing HOU contract, compared with less than 10 million barrels in August last year, ICE said.
Increasing liquidity in these contracts will create opportunities for hedging and arbitrage trades, leading to more deliveries in storage terminals in the region, and fewer into Cushing, oil market experts said.
“The physical market for U.S. production has already moved to the U.S. Gulf Coast, and now the futures market is following suit,” said Jeff Barbuto, global head of oil markets at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
While shale oil output from the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, the largest U.S. oilfield, has surged 3.6% to average 6.1 million barrels per day (bpd) so far this year, much of that oil is heading to storage closer to Gulf Coast export ports, or to refiners in the region.
“Where the big trade flow of crude oil is from the Permian and comes across to Houston, it kind of bypasses Cushing,” said Colin Parfitt, a vice president at Chevron (NYSE:).
CME said that WTI continues to be the most liquid and significant benchmark and that Gulf Coast is an important and growing market.
Inventories at the Gulf Coast stood at about 235 million barrels last week, about 7% higher than levels at the start of 2016 after the export ban was lifted.
Cushing storage bounced off 11 month lows to 22.8 million barrels last week, near operational minimums, and was about 64% lower than the levels at the start of 2016.
“If someone were to say a year ago, that Cushing (stocks) would be at rock bottom, you would think oil would be at $100,” said James Cordier, founder of think tank Cordier Commodity Report. The U.S. benchmark was trading below $70 a barrel on Thursday.
COASTAL PRICES DOMINATE
The flagship price benchmark along the Gulf Coast, particularly for exports, is WTI at East Houston, also known as MEH as it represents WTI arriving by pipeline and traded at the Magellan’s East Houston (MEH) terminal.
“U.S. exports are around 4 million (barrels) a day and Midland priced at East Houston is really the barometer on how to price U.S. exports,” said Jeremy Irwin, senior oil markets analyst at researcher Energy Aspects.
“I don’t see any incentive to why you would want to necessarily store barrels at Cushing,” said Irwin. “What Cushing becomes is more of a flow-through hub, rather than a storage pricing hub.”
Oil basins feeding Cushing have also lost some of their sparkle. U.S. crude output growth from secondary shale oil basins in North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia have slowed. They historically helped fill Cushing’s hundreds of storage tanks.
Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline expansion also has siphoned some of the crude oil that would have flowed to Cushing.
Commodities
Agriculture groups urge White House action ahead of possible ports strike
CHICAGO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Nearly 200 agriculture organizations on Friday morning urged the White House to address key U.S. agricultural supply chain issues in the face of a potential East and Gulf Coast port strike that could begin on Tuesday.
The groups said the industry is facing “imminent and severe shipping disruptions” from a potential work stoppage, snarled rail lines and historically low river levels backing up grain barge shipments and impacting trade with Mexico, according to a letter reviewed by Reuters.
The groups asked the federal government to direct the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to dredge the lower Mississippi River to maintain 12-foot-deep channels, and step in to reopen the movement of grain by rail from the U.S. to Mexico.
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