Commodities
Oil trades in narrow range since 2022 on OPEC+, sanctions and demand worries
By Ahmad Ghaddar and Alex Lawler
LONDON (Reuters) – has been trading in a tight range of $75-$90 a barrel since late 2022 as OPEC+ cuts keep a floor under prices while sizeable spare capacity, demand uncertainty and sanctions policy prevent the market breaking higher.
After a series of gradual production increases that started in early 2021 which unwound historic cuts agreed during the coronavirus pandemic, OPEC+ announced new production cuts in October 2022 and since then has cut output further.
“OPEC+’s need to maintain stable prices, elevated hopes of falling inflation and possible rate cuts every time oil dips below $80 puts a floor under the market,” PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga said.
As a result of the cuts, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, have a sizeable spare capacity, and this is limiting the upside for prices, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
The International Energy Agency estimates spare production capacity at a historically high 5.8 million barrels per day, nearly 6% of oil consumption, including 3.3 million bpd in Saudi Arabia, 1 million bpd in the UAE, and 600,000 bpd in Iraq.
This means conflict in the Middle East, typically supportive
for prices due to a perceived greater risk of disruption to supply, has had a limited impact on oil prices this year.
“People are not even pricing in a huge risk premium for the Middle East because OPEC and Saudi Arabia can handle it,” BNP Paribas (OTC:) analyst Aldo Spanjer said.
Uncertainty over demand growth has also limited price rises.
“Today we see a well-supplied oil market with a rather pronounced stagnation of demand in the Western world and China,” Julius Baer analyst Norbert Ruecker said.
The IEA said Chinese demand contracted in April and May.
“We do not have a pronounced shortage of supply at present and the market has really moved on from the two wars that continue to rage,” RBC Capital Market’s analyst Helima Croft said, referring to the Israeli war in Gaza and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Israel-Hamas war has not led to any supply shutdowns in the region, with the impact being limited to ships avoiding the Red Sea due to attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
Western sanctions on Russia and price caps by the European Union have had a limited impact on Russian crude and fuel exports as new buyers emerged in China and India.
Commodities
Gold prices edge up, remains pressured by strong dollar after hawkish Fed
Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their tepid performance as investors still remained cautious with the rising dollar following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
Traders also refrained from placing large bets ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Christmas holiday.
inched up 0.2% to $2,616.95 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,633.89 an ounce.
The yellow metal had inched up 0.3% on Monday, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook.
Bullion under pressure on Fed rate outlook
Gold prices had hit a one-month low on Wednesday, as the Fed meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut.
Prices have failed to fully recover from it and have seen subdued moves as investors still assessed the implications of the Fed’s rate outlook.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.
Traders are now expecting only two quarter-point reductions in 2025 amid continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation. This compares to expectations of four rate cuts before the Fed meeting.
Strong dollar creates downward pressure on gold, other metals
The Fed’s hawkish shift provided renewed strength to the U.S. dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.
The rose 0.1% in Asia hours on Tuesday and hovered near a two-year high it reached last week.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Other precious metals were largely muted. inched up 1.2% to $960.15 an ounce, while gained 0.3% to $30.265 an ounce.
Copper subdued on strong dollar, seasonal factors
Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued and moved within tight ranges on Tuesday as a strong greenback weighed on the red metal.
Analysts attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange were largely unchanged at $8,954.50 a ton, while one-month were 0.5% higher at $4.1045 a pound.
Commodities
Oil prices extend gains on fresh China stimulus measures, declining US inventories
Investing.com– Oil prices continued their uptrend in Asian Trade on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, bolstered by new stimulus measures in China and a drop in inventories.
At 06:01 ET (05:01 GMT), traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel.
Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.
Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China.
China’s fresh stimulus measures support oil prices
Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.
China’s economic growth is a key factor influencing global oil prices due to its status as the largest oil importer. When China’s economy thrives, its demand for crude oil rises to fuel industries, transportation, and other energy-intensive activities, often driving up oil prices.
China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has faced significant hurdles, including weakening consumer confidence, faltering export demand, and a beleaguered property sector.
To counter the slowdown, Beijing has implemented several stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth.
Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.
US crude inventories shrink- API
US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the (API) data.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.
The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.
A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Gold prices rise on slightly weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions
Investing.com– Gold prices were higher in premarket trade on Thursday due to a slightly weaker dollar as markets returned to trading after the Christmas holiday, while gains were limited as investors remained cautious following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
Traders also refrained from placing large bets in a holiday-shortened week, resulting in thin trade volumes.
rose around 0.4% to $2,626.53 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,641.6 an ounce by 07:55 am ET (12:55 GMT).
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to bullion’s gains.
The Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel accused each other on Wednesday of hindering a ceasefire deal, with Hamas blaming Israel for imposing additional conditions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging Hamas reneged on prior understandings.
Gold is seen as a safe haven asset amid uncertainties in the market.
US dollar weakens but remains nears 2-yr high
The has edged higher on Thursday but hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.
The Fed’s hawkish shift last week provided renewed strength to the dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Gold prices fell sharply last week after the Fed policy meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds
The yellow metal has seen marginal moves this week, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook
Other precious were mixed on Thursday. declined 0.3% to $957.70 an ounce, while rose by 0.1% to $30.31 an ounce.
Copper edges up on China stimulus, strong dollar caps gains
Among industrial metals, prices gained after a Reuters report showed that Chinese authorities plan to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy.
The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.
Analysts also attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.
The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose 0.2% to 74,220 yuan a ton.
Benchmark copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were closed on Thursday for the holiday.
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