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OPEC plans no immediate action after Iran urges Israel oil embargo, sources say

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OPEC plans no immediate action after Iran urges Israel oil embargo, sources say
© Reuters. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian speaks during a joint press conference with Lebanon’s caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib ( not pictured ) in Beirut, Lebanon October 13, 2023. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

By Elwely Elwelly and Ahmad Ghaddar

DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) -OPEC is not planning to hold an extraordinary meeting or take any immediate action after Iran’s foreign minister called on members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to impose an oil embargo and other sanctions on Israel, four sources from the producer group told Reuters.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on Wednesday called on OIC members to impose an oil embargo and other sanctions on Israel and expel all Israeli ambassadors.

Four sources from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which produces a third of the world’s oil and includes several Muslim countries including Iran, said that no immediate action or emergency meetings were planned by the group in light of Iran’s comments.

“We are not a political organisation,” one of the sources said.

On Tuesday, the Gulf Cooperation Council secretary-general when asked whether Arab countries should reduce oil production in retaliation for Israel’s actions in Gaza, said that the GCC was committed to energy security and shouldn’t use oil as a weapon.

“The GCC works as a clear and honest partner as an oil exporter with the international community and we can’t use that as a weapon in any way possible,” Jasem al-Budaiwi said.

In 1973, Arab producers led by Saudi Arabia slapped an oil embargo on Western supporters of Israel in its war with Egypt, targeting Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Britain and the United States.

Oil prices spiked as a result but over the longer term the crisis led to the development of new oil provinces outside the Middle East like the North Sea and deepwater assets, and encouraged alternative energy.

While Western countries were the main buyers of crude produced by the Arab countries at the time, nowadays Asia is the main buyer of OPEC’s crude.

“The geopolitical environment is different compared to 50 years ago,” another OPEC source said about why an embargo won’t be implemented.

An urgent meeting of the OIC is taking place in the Saudi city of Jeddah to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, after a blast at a Gaza hospital late on Tuesday killed large numbers of Palestinians.

Amirabdollahian also called for the formation of a team of Islamic lawyers to document potential war crimes committed by Israel in Gaza.

Iran has no diplomatic relations with Israel.

Prior to the hospital blast on Tuesday, health authorities in Gaza said at least 3,000 people had died during Israel’s 11-day bombardment that began after a Hamas Oct. 7 rampage on southern Israeli communities in which 1,300 people were killed and around 200 were taken into Gaza as hostages.

(Reporting Elwely Elwelly and Maha El Dahan in Dubai, Ahmad Ghaddar and Alex Lawler in London; Editing by Alex Richardson, Gareth Jones, Kirsten Donovan)

Commodities

Oil prices settle lower after weak August jobs report adds to demand concerns

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Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand. 

At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.

U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report

The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.

Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.

Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.

Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.

U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions 

Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia. 

The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine. 

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Commodities

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ production increases to start in December

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(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note on Friday.

OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.

However Goldman Sachs maintained its range of $70-85 per barrel and a December 2025 Brent forecast at $74 per barrel.

The investment bank expects the effects of a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the upcoming months to be counterbalanced by easing effects from the current softness in China’s demand and faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view of the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 30, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

“We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions,” Goldman Sachs said.

Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel on Friday, their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48 on Friday, or 2.14%, to $67.67, their lowest since June 2023. [O/R]

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Citi, Bank of America see oil prices potentially going to $60

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Investing.com — Strategists at Citi Research said oil prices could decline to around $60 per barrel by 2025, citing a significant market surplus as the primary driver.

While recent supply disruptions in Libya and a delayed production cut unwinding by OPEC+ have offered short-term support for Brent prices in the $70-72 range, Citi views this as temporary.

“At the time of writing, markets have not reacted to the OPEC+ decision, with Brent around flat to the 4 September close. Still, the Libyan situation could take months rather than a week to resolve, strategists wrote.

They highlight the likelihood of a strong market surplus emerging next year, pushing prices lower.

“We recommend selling on a bounce toward ~$80 Brent, as we look ahead to moves down to the $60 range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus emerges,” the note states.

OPEC+ has delayed the start of its planned production cut unwind from October 2024 to December 2024, with the process now set to conclude by the end of 2025. This decision comes in response to recent market weakness and price declines, despite ongoing disruptions to Libyan oil supplies and broader economic concerns in the U.S. and China.

Separately, Bank of America’s Commodities Research team has revised down its price forecast to $75 per barrel for the second half of 2024, down from nearly $90, and for 2025, reduced from $80.

The team cites concerns about growing global oil inventories despite assuming OPEC+ will delay planned production increases. They note that weaker demand growth, combined with record OPEC+ spare capacity exceeding 5 million barrels per day, has dimmed the outlook for oil prices.

“In effect, we now see Brent oil prices moving from the top toward the middle of our unchanged $60-80/bbl medium-term range faster than previously warned,” BofA strategists said. This surplus in capacity, along with slower demand, also reduces the risk of price spikes from potential geopolitical disruptions.

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