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OPEC+ set to go ahead with Dec oil output hike, sources say

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By Maha El Dahan, Olesya Astakhova and Alex Lawler

DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC+ is set to go ahead with a December oil output increase as its impact will be small should a plan for some members to make larger cuts to compensate for overproduction be delivered in September and later months, two OPEC+ sources said on Thursday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+, is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 barrels per day in December, part of a plan to start unwinding its most recent layer of output cuts.

Two OPEC+ members, Iraq and Kazakhstan, have pledged to make extra cuts totalling 123,000 bpd in September, and additional curbs in future months, to compensate for earlier pumping above agreed levels.

“When the compensation plan and production figures from those countries becomes clear for September then that will allow the increment to come in as the impact of the increment will be negligible,” one of the OPEC+ sources said, referring to the December increase.

The Saudi government’s communications office and OPEC’s headquarters did not immediately return requests for comment.

Earlier on Thursday, the Financial Times, citing people familiar with Saudi thinking, reported that Saudi Arabia is committed to OPEC+ raising production as planned on Dec. 1 and dropping its unofficial $100 a barrel oil price target.

OPEC and Saudi Arabia have repeatedly said they do not target a certain price and make decisions based on market fundamentals and in the interest of balancing supply and demand.

The output increase in December is not about regaining market share, it is about a small number of countries phasing out their voluntary output cuts, one of the OPEC+ sources said.

Top ministers from OPEC+ are scheduled to meet on Oct. 2 to review the market and are not expected to make any changes to policy.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view of the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 30, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Reuters on Thursday that there were no changes to OPEC+ plans to start phasing out oil production cuts from December.

The ministers could meet again in November, a third OPEC+ source said.

Commodities

OPEC output cut extension positive for oil prices near-term, UBS says

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Investing.com — The decision by OPEC+ to extend its production cuts through December is seen by UBS analysts as a modest but positive step for oil prices in the short term. 

This extension maintains a cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (Mb/d), an agreement initially struck last year. 

UBS noted that while this action aligns with their expectations, market speculations about a potential production increase had raised concerns prior to the announcement, making the continuity of cuts a reassuring factor for price stability​.

UBS outlines that OPEC+ remains cautious about reintroducing additional barrels into the market, particularly as demand typically softens seasonally at this time of year. 

A sudden increase in production from Libya had already somewhat alleviated supply constraints, further justifying the extended restraint by OPEC+. 

This approach reflects a prudent stance from OPEC+ amid mixed compliance on compensation requirements from members like Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia who had exceeded previous production targets.

Looking beyond December, UBS anticipates that apprehensions regarding potential output increases will persist, with the group scheduled to review policy in early December. 

A more substantial production ramp-up is currently slated for 2025, at which point OPEC+ will likely reassess market conditions and U.S. policy implications, though UBS maintains that sluggish demand growth and stable output from non-OPEC sources could still discourage any major increases. 

“We see the market just about balanced next year with no unwind of the production cuts, which keeps at an average $75/bbl in 2025 in our base case,” the analysts said.

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Commodities

Oil prices soar after OPEC+ delays production hike

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Investing.com– Oil prices rose sharply Monday after a group of top producers said they will delay a planned output hike in December by at least a month, citing recent pressure on prices from weak demand. 

At 04:45 ET (09:45 GMT), rose 2.6% to $75.03 a barrel, while rose 2.9% to $71.47 a barrel. 

OPEC+ delays production hike 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, announced on Sunday that its members will delay a planned output hike of 180,000 barrels per day by at least a month.

The cartel had previously outlined plans to begin winding down its most recent 2.2 million bpd output curbs from December.

But plans to increase production raised concerns in the group about weaker oil prices, especially as prices slid to a near three-year low in September. The OPEC+ had slashed production by nearly 6 million bpd in the past two years to support prices. 

Weakness in China was the biggest point of concern for oil markets, as the world’s biggest oil importer grappled with a prolonged downturn in economic growth. Oil imports to the country also weakened sharply in recent months.

“With continued uncertainty around 2025’s demand outlook, the pause decision is consistent with the leadership’s June pledge to remain prudent about production decisions and to avoid sudden shocks,” said analysts at RBC Capital Markets, in a note. “Concerns that OPEC was poised to oversupply a fragile market have been weighing significantly on sentiment.”

US elections, China stimulus in focus 

Oil prices were also aided by a softer , as the greenback retreated in anticipation of the U.S. presidential election this week. Recent polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were set for a tight race.

Both candidates have promised to increase domestic oil production, which is already at record highs of over 13 million bpd.

Focus this week is also on a meeting of China’s National People’s Congress this week, where policymakers are widely expected to approve more fiscal spending to boost economic growth.

Recent reports said the government could approve as much as $1.4 trillion in stimulus over the coming years to support growth.

Middle East tensions remain 

Both crude benchmarks posted hefty weekly declines last week, but edged up on Friday on reports that Iran could launch a retaliatory strike on Israel within days.

On Thursday, U.S. news website Axios said Israeli intelligence suggested that Iran was preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days, citing two unidentified Israeli sources.

“Though the market sold off sharply after Israel avoided targeting Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure, the threat of Iranian retaliation remains a clear and present danger,” RBC added. “Certainly, a continuing cycle of retaliatory strikes between Israel and Iran raises the risk that oil facilities will be caught in the crosshairs.”

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Gold prices rise with elections, Fed meeting in focus

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Investing.com– Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Monday, remaining in sight of record highs as anticipation of a tight presidential election and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting kept haven demand high.

The yellow metal was also buoyed by weakness in the dollar after substantially softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data last week, which furthered the case for more interest rate cuts by the Fed. 

Still, the yellow metal was nursing a tumble from recent record highs, hit mostly by profit-taking at the end of October. 

rose 0.2% to $2,741.31 an ounce, while expiring in December steadied at $2,750.40 an ounce by 23:56 ET (04:56 GMT). 

Trump, Harris neck-and-neck as ballots loom

Recent polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were largely neck-and-neck in the upcoming election, with voting set for this Tuesday.

Particular focus is on the seven battleground states that are likely to decide the direction of the election. Recent polls showed Harris had a strong base in female supporters, while Trump was mostly favored by young white men.

Gold buoyed by dollar weakness ahead of Fed meeting

In addition to pre-election haven demand, gold also took support from recent declines in the , as the greenback tumbled from three-month highs after data released last week.

The reading showed the U.S. job market barely grew in October, with downward revisions for the past two months pointing to a cooling in the labor sector.

Such a trend is expected to give the Fed more impetus to cut interest rates. The central bank is widely expected to later this week, although its plans for future rate cuts remain uncertain.

Gold benefits from lower rates, given that they reduce the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets. 

Among other precious metals, rose 0.4% to $1,006.75 an ounce, while rose 0.3% to $32.773 an ounce. Both metals, like gold, were hit with a sharp bout of profit-taking last week.

Among industrial metals, benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.9% to $9,637.50 an ounce, while December rose 0.7% to $4.4032.

Focus this week was squarely on a meeting of China’s National People’s Congress, where the government is widely expected to outline plans for more fiscal spending.

The country is the world’s biggest copper importer and is grappling with years of weak economic growth.

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