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Palm oil buyers switch to cheaper rival oils, hampering price recovery

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Palm oil buyers switch to cheaper rival oils, hampering price recovery
© Reuters. Trucks are seen near a palm oil plantation at a village located near Indonesia’s projected new capital, known as Nusantara National Capital, in Sepaku, East Kalimantan province, Indonesia, March 8 2023. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo

By Rajendra Jadhav

MUMBAI (Reuters) – The rebound in palm oil prices is likely to be capped by abundant supplies of rival soyoil and sunflower oil, “soft” oils that are available at discounts to tropical palm oil for the first time in more than a year.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures have risen nearly 5% in 2024 after losing 11% last year.

Primary competitor soyoil typically trades at a premium to palm oil, but a record South American soybean crop has driven down prices, and buyers are taking more soyoil shipments.

Soft oils production is rising while palm oil production is falling, driving divergent price trends, said Vipin Gupta, chief executive officer of Dubai-based trader Glentech Group.

“Higher prices are pushing away buyers from palm oil, which will limit the price rise,” Gupta said.

Crude palm oil (CPO) imports are being offered at about $930 a metric ton, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), in India for March delivery, while soyoil and sunflower oil are offered around $915 and $910 a ton, respectively, dealers said.

Palm oil, available at a discount of nearly $200 a ton to soyoil in November, is trading at premiums as dryness caused by an El Nino weather is limiting output in the two largest producers, Indonesia and Malaysia.

In India, the top vegetable oil importer, buyers are trimming palm oil imports and increasing soyoil for shipments in coming months, said Sanjeev Asthana, CEO at Patanjali Foods Ltd, India’s top palm oil buyer.

Palm oil imports by India fell to their lowest in three months at 787,000 ton in January as soyoil purchases rose 24% to 190,000 tons.

India’s soyoil imports could jump to 300,000 tons in March and further to 400,000 tons in April, while palm oil imports could fall to around 700,000 tons, said Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.

Negative refining margins for palm oil for Indian refiners contrasts with the positive margin in soyoil and sunoil, prompting increases soft oil purchases, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at edible oil trader and broker GGN Research.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Due to higher freight costs, palm oil is even more expensive for European buyers and is trading in Europe at a premium of up to $100 a ton over soyoil, canola oil and sunflower oil, said a Singapore-based dealer with a global trading house.

CORE DEMAND INTACT

While high prices are likely to squeeze household consumption, industrial demand for palm oil is likely to remain intact, the Singapore dealer said.

In Pakistan, palm oil is primarily used to make vanaspati ghee, a cheaper substitute for clarified butter, for which demand will persist, said Rasheed JanMohd, chief executive of Karachi-based Westbury Group.

Palm oil is expected to maintain its premium for at least a few months, as production in Indonesia and Malaysia declines and demand for biodiesel in Indonesia rises, said a Kuala Lumpur-based vegetable oil trader.

“Palm oil stocks are decreasing in producing countries, which will give them leverage to quote higher prices,” the trader said.

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks likely fell for the third straight month in January, a Reuters survey showed.

Commodities

Oil set for third weekly decline, pressured by Gaza ceasefire hopes

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By Laila Kearney and Georgina McCartney

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Friday and were on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by muted demand in China and hopes of a Gaza ceasefire deal that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns.

futures for September dipped 56 cents to $81.81 a barrel by 1250 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September fell 40 cents to $77.88.

For the week, Brent is trading down almost 1% while WTI is down more than 2%.

Recent data, such as July 20 figures showing that China’s total fuel oil imports dropped 11% in the first half of 2024, have raised concern about the wider demand outlook in China.

In the Middle East, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza have been gaining momentum.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

A ceasefire has been the subject of negotiations for months, but U.S. officials believe the parties are closer than ever to an agreement for a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release by Hamas of female, sick, elderly and wounded hostages.

Oil price declines were capped, however, by threats to production from Canadian wildfires, a large stocks draw and continued hopes of a September cut to U.S. interest rates after strong economic data, said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.

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Oil prices fall; set for weekly losses on demand concerns

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell Friday, on course for a third consecutive losing week as concerns over sluggish demand conditions in Asia weighed.

At 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT), fell 0.9% to $81.62 a barrel, and dropped 0.8% to $77.66 a barrel.

Crude set for third straight week of losses

Both benchmarks are on course for another losing week, the third in succession, with down just under 1% and WTI nearly 3% lower.

Persistent concerns over slowing growth and demand in top importer China have been the dominant factor, part triggered by GDP data from last week, which showed the Chinese economy grew less than expected in the second quarter.

Additionally, more data this week showed the country’s apparent oil demand fell 8.1% to 13.66 million barrels per day in June.

Beijing unexpectedly cut a swathe of lending rates this week, further trying to loosen monetary policy amid growing concerns over sluggish growth. 

Apart from China, uncertainty over Japan also grew following middling , while weak activity data in Europe also pointed to economic woes.  

Gaza ceasefire in focus

Also weighing on the crude market have been increasing hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza.

The leaders of Australia, New Zealand and Canada called for an immediate ceasefire in a joint statement on Friday, while U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to help efforts at reaching a deal, striking a tougher tone than President Joe Biden.

A ceasefire has been talked about for months, but if it was to occur then some of the risk premium could be removed from the market.

Strong US GDP, rate cut hopes offer some support 

On the flip side,  data, released on Thursday, showed that the U.S. economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, despite pressure from high rates and relatively sticky inflation.

The reading drove up hopes that the world’s biggest fuel consumer was headed for a “soft landing,” where economic growth remained steady while inflation eased. 

These hopes were also lifted by the data showing overall U.S. inflation cooled as expected in June.

According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the  (PCE) price index slipped to 2.5% in June, from 2.6% the prior month. .

Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, the year-on-year “core” gauge, widely known as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, remained at 2.6%, only marginally above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

This sparked increased optimism over a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Data showing steady drawdowns in U.S. also offered some positive cues to oil markets, as fuel demand in the country remained robust amid the travel-heavy summer season. 

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Canadian wildfire reaches Jasper, firefighters battle to protect oil pipeline

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(Reuters) -A wildfire reached the Canadian town of Jasper, Alberta on Wednesday, one of hundreds ravaging the western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, as firefighters battled to save key facilities such as the Trans Mountain Pipeline, authorities said.

Wildfires burning uncontrolled across the region include 433 in British Columbia and 176 in Alberta, more than a dozen of them in the area of Fort McMurray, an oil sands hub.

The pipeline, which can carry 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Edmonton to Vancouver, runs through a national park in the Canadian Rockies near the picturesque tourist town, from which about 25,000 people were forced to evacuate on Tuesday.

“Firefighters … are working to save as many structures as possible and protect critical infrastructure, including the wastewater treatment plant, communications facilities, the Trans Mountain Pipeline,” Parks Canada said in a post on Facebook (NASDAQ:).

The pipeline operator did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment, but said earlier it was safely operating the pipeline and had deployed sprinkler protection as a preventive measure.

In the day’s last update, Jasper National Park said it could not report on the extent of damage to specific locations or neighbourhoods, and that it would provide further updates on Thursday.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government approved Alberta’s request for federal assistance.

“We’re deploying Canadian Armed Forces resources, evacuations support, and more emergency wildfire resources to the province immediately – and we’re coordinating firefighting and airlift assistance. Alberta, we’re with you.”

The town, and the park, which draws more than two million tourists a year, were evacuated on Monday night, at a time when officials estimated there were 15,000 visitors in the park.

© Reuters. Smoke rises from the Lower Campbell Creek wildfire (K51472) wildfire northwest of Beaverdell, British Columbia, Canada July 24, 2024.   BC Wildfire Service/Handout via REUTERS.

Deteriorating air quality forced firefighters and others lacking breathing equipment to evacuate to the town of Hinton, about 100 km (62 miles) away, park authorities said on Facebook on Wednesday evening.

Officials of Parks Canada earlier said they expected rain to arrive overnight.

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