Commodities
Palm oil buyers switch to cheaper rival oils, hampering price recovery
© Reuters. Trucks are seen near a palm oil plantation at a village located near Indonesia’s projected new capital, known as Nusantara National Capital, in Sepaku, East Kalimantan province, Indonesia, March 8 2023. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
By Rajendra Jadhav
MUMBAI (Reuters) – The rebound in palm oil prices is likely to be capped by abundant supplies of rival soyoil and sunflower oil, “soft” oils that are available at discounts to tropical palm oil for the first time in more than a year.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures have risen nearly 5% in 2024 after losing 11% last year.
Primary competitor soyoil typically trades at a premium to palm oil, but a record South American soybean crop has driven down prices, and buyers are taking more soyoil shipments.
Soft oils production is rising while palm oil production is falling, driving divergent price trends, said Vipin Gupta, chief executive officer of Dubai-based trader Glentech Group.
“Higher prices are pushing away buyers from palm oil, which will limit the price rise,” Gupta said.
Crude palm oil (CPO) imports are being offered at about $930 a metric ton, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), in India for March delivery, while soyoil and sunflower oil are offered around $915 and $910 a ton, respectively, dealers said.
Palm oil, available at a discount of nearly $200 a ton to soyoil in November, is trading at premiums as dryness caused by an El Nino weather is limiting output in the two largest producers, Indonesia and Malaysia.
In India, the top vegetable oil importer, buyers are trimming palm oil imports and increasing soyoil for shipments in coming months, said Sanjeev Asthana, CEO at Patanjali Foods Ltd, India’s top palm oil buyer.
Palm oil imports by India fell to their lowest in three months at 787,000 ton in January as soyoil purchases rose 24% to 190,000 tons.
India’s soyoil imports could jump to 300,000 tons in March and further to 400,000 tons in April, while palm oil imports could fall to around 700,000 tons, said Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.
Negative refining margins for palm oil for Indian refiners contrasts with the positive margin in soyoil and sunoil, prompting increases soft oil purchases, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at edible oil trader and broker GGN Research.
India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.
Due to higher freight costs, palm oil is even more expensive for European buyers and is trading in Europe at a premium of up to $100 a ton over soyoil, canola oil and sunflower oil, said a Singapore-based dealer with a global trading house.
CORE DEMAND INTACT
While high prices are likely to squeeze household consumption, industrial demand for palm oil is likely to remain intact, the Singapore dealer said.
In Pakistan, palm oil is primarily used to make vanaspati ghee, a cheaper substitute for clarified butter, for which demand will persist, said Rasheed JanMohd, chief executive of Karachi-based Westbury Group.
Palm oil is expected to maintain its premium for at least a few months, as production in Indonesia and Malaysia declines and demand for biodiesel in Indonesia rises, said a Kuala Lumpur-based vegetable oil trader.
“Palm oil stocks are decreasing in producing countries, which will give them leverage to quote higher prices,” the trader said.
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks likely fell for the third straight month in January, a Reuters survey showed.
Commodities
Gold prices edge lower but keep record highs in sight ahead of inflation test
Investing.com– Gold prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Tuesday but remained close to recent peaks as traders awaited key U.S. inflation data for more cues on the Federal Reserve’s plans to begin cutting interest rates.
The yellow metal benefited from safe haven buying following a severe risk-off move across markets last week, which was triggered by concerns over slowing economic growth.
Spot prices came within spitting distance of a record high on Friday, but then pulled back as the advanced ahead of this week’s inflation reading.
fell 0.1% to $2,502.07 an ounce, while expiring in December fell 0.1% to $2,531.0 an ounce by 00:22 ET (04:22 GMT).
Gold steady with Inflation, Fed meeting in sight
Focus this week is squarely on inflation data, due on Wednesday, for more cues on the U.S. economy.
Any signs of cooling inflation are likely to spur increased bets on lower interest rates in the coming months- a scenario that bodes well for gold.
Wednesday’s inflation reading comes just a week before a , where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Expectations of the September cut were also a key driver of gold’s recent gains, given that the cut is likely to kick off an easing cycle by the Fed.
Lower rates bode well for gold, given that they reduce the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal.
Other precious metals fell on Tuesday, having largely lagged gold in recent weeks. fell 0.1% to $945.0 an ounce, while fell 0.2% to $28.590 an ounce.
Copper edges lower, Chinese trade data brings little cheer
Among industrial metals, prices retreated on Tuesday, taking little support from data that showed some economic resilience in top importer China.
China’s unexpectedly grew in August on strength in the country’s . But laggard offset cheer over this trend, given that they signaled sluggish demand in the country.
China’s overall copper imports shrank 12.3% year-on-year in August, although they were still in positive territory for the first eight months of the year.
The soft import data came following a string of weak readings on China’s economy over the past week, which raised concerns over slowing growth in the world’s biggest copper importer.
The data, coupled with a broader risk-off move in global markets, saw copper nursing steep losses over the past week.
Commodities
Oil prices steady with storm disruptions, demand fears in focus
Investing.com– Oil prices steadied in Asian trade on Tuesday as traders sought to gauge the impact of Tropical Storm Francine on U.S. oil production, while concerns over sluggish demand remained in play.
Prices were nursing steep losses from the prior week amid renewed concerns that global oil demand will slow, especially following middling economic readings from top importer China. The prospect of oversupply and increased production also weighed.
But oil prices rebounded on Monday as sentiment improved.
expiring in November were flat at $71.86 a barrel, while steadied at $67.90 a barrel by 22:37ET (02:37 GMT).
Tropical storm Francine set to batter Gulf of Mexico
A slew of oil companies were seen stopping production and refining activities in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Francine made its way towards the U.S. mid-South.
The storm is expected to potentially strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall, and is expected to lash the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts with heavy rain and gale winds this week.
The storm could potentially cause extended disruptions in the energy-rich Gulf of Mexico, reducing crude supplies in North America and presenting a tighter near-term outlook for oil markets.
This notion offered oil markets some support, helping them recover a measure of bruising losses logged last week.
Oil battered by demand concerns, China woes
Oil prices were nursing steep losses in recent sessions as markets fretted over slowing demand, especially in top crude importer China.
A string of weak economic readings from the country for August drummed up concerns over slowing growth, as did signs that increasing electric vehicle adoption was also denting fuel demand.
Beyond China, caution over U.S. interest rates also weighed on oil markets, especially ahead of key inflation data due later this week.
The inflation reading comes just a week before a Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Commodities
Oil dips as weaker demand counters storm Francine
By Ahmad Ghaddar
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices gave up the previous day’s gains on Tuesday as a weaker demand outlook offset U.S. supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine and global oil oversupply risks that continue to weigh on the market.
futures were down 95 cents, or 1.3%, at $70.89 a barrel by 1214 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 96 cents, or 1.4%, to $67.75.
Both benchmarks had risen about 1% on Monday.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report on Tuesday that global oil demand will rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from previously projected growth of 2.11 million bpd.
OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd.
The weakening global demand prospects and expectations of oil oversupply kept the market suppressed.
Chinese data on Monday showed consumer inflation accelerated in August to its fastest in half a year, though domestic demand remained fragile, and producer price deflation worsened.
And while data released on Tuesday showed China’s exports grew at their fastest in nearly 1-1/2 years in August, imports disappointed against a backdrop of depressed domestic demand.
“The message from China is simple but loud and reverberates throughout the globe,” said PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga, adding that the country is struggling to encourage spending and boost sluggish demand.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Coast Guard ordered the closure of all operations at Brownsville and other small Texas ports on Monday evening as Tropical Storm Francine barrelled across the Gulf of Mexico. Corpus Christi port remained open with restrictions.
The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen significantly and become a hurricane on Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Exxon Mobil (NYSE:) said it shut in output at its Hoover offshore production platform while Shell (LON:) paused drilling operations at two platforms. Chevron (NYSE:) also began shutting in oil and gas output at two of its offshore platforms.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to publish its short-term energy outlook, with forecasts for the global market and oil output.
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