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Commodities

US natural gas drillers to lift 2025 output, reversing year of cuts

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By Scott DiSavino

(Reuters) – U.S. producers will boost output in 2025 following a series of production cuts this year, as rising demand from liquefied natural gas export plants is expected to increase prices that had fallen to multi-decade lows.

U.S. production is on track to decline in 2024 for the first time since 2020, when the COVID pandemic reduced demand, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest outlook.

Drillers started cutting gas production after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March, and have remained relatively low since then. In some markets, spot gas prices have even traded at negative levels throughout the year, meaning producers had to pay others to take their product. [HH/GAS]

But rising demand for exports should boost average annual gas prices next year by more than 40% over the levels seen in 2024, according to analysts’ estimates.

The EIA projects annual average dry gas production will slide from a record 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 to 103.3 bcfd in 2024, but climb to 104.5 bcfd in 2025.

It expects total gas demand, including LNG and pipeline exports, will rise from a record 109.9 bcfd in 2023 to 111.2 bcfd in 2024 and 113.0 bcfd in 2025.

Most of 2025’s expected demand increase is due to a 14% jump in LNG exports, while domestic use – such as gas used for power generation – will likely see a decline.

From 2019 to 2023, U.S. LNG exports have soared by an average of 34% per year, while domestic gas usage has edged up by just 2% a year.

Two plants under construction are due to enter service in test mode by the end of this year, including the first 1.8-bcfd phase of Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility in Louisiana and the 1.5-bcfd Stage 3 expansion at Cheniere Energy (NYSE:)’s Corpus Christi facility in Texas.

WAITING FOR HIGHER PRICES

To meet growing export demand, several of the biggest U.S. gas producers said in their third-quarter earnings that they expect to boost output in the fourth quarter and throughout 2025.

“Producers are waiting for higher prices to deliver several bcfd of production held back … the likely start-up of Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 should lead to much higher flows next year,” analysts at Bank of America said in a report.

Analysts forecast average annual Henry Hub gas prices would jump to a three-year high of around $3.27 per million British thermal units in 2025, up from a four-year low of $2.29 in 2024. [HH/GAS]

“The combination of growing LNG exports, increased electrical generation demand and the prospect of winter weather suggests a tighter supply-demand picture for natural gas in 2025 and beyond,” Thomas Jorden, the CEO at Coterra Energy (NYSE:), told analysts on a call to discuss the producer’s earnings.

Jorden, however, said Coterra would continue to curtail output until it sees materially better spot gas prices.

EQT (ST:), the nation’s second-biggest gas producer, boosted its fourth-quarter production guidance to 6.03-6.58 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (bcfed), up from prior guidance of 5.60-6.14 bcfed. That compares with actual output of around 6.32 bcfed in the third quarter.

“I do expect (production) to come up a little bit as we get into 2025,” EQT Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Knop told analysts in an earnings call.

EOG Resources (NYSE:), another of the nation’s biggest gas producers, expects its U.S. gas output to rise from 1.745 bcfd in the third quarter to an estimated 1.800-1.850 bcfd in the fourth quarter. 

That puts EOG on track to boost U.S. gas output by around 11% in 2024, up from an annual average of 1.551 bcfd in 2023.

Expand Energy, the biggest U.S. gas producer following the merger of Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE:), said it could boost gas output to around 7 bcfed in 2025, up from around 6.75 bcfed in the third quarter of 2024.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A drilling rig on a lease owned by Oasis Petroleum performs logging operations in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas producing area near Wink, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

But whether Expand produces that extra output in 2025 depends on market conditions.

“The company intends to prudently activate production as market conditions warrant,” Expand said, noting that by the end of 2024 it expects to be able to deliver another 1.0 bcfd of short-cycle capacity – if needed.

Commodities

Gold prices edge up, remains pressured by strong dollar after hawkish Fed

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Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their tepid performance as investors still remained cautious with the rising dollar following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

Traders also refrained from placing large bets ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Christmas holiday.

inched up 0.2% to $2,616.95 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,633.89 an ounce.

The yellow metal had inched up 0.3% on Monday, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook.

Bullion under pressure on Fed rate outlook

Gold prices had hit a one-month low on Wednesday, as the Fed meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut. 

Prices have failed to fully recover from it and have seen subdued moves as investors still assessed the implications of the Fed’s rate outlook. 

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.

Traders are now expecting only two quarter-point reductions in 2025 amid continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation. This compares to expectations of four rate cuts before the Fed meeting.

Strong dollar creates downward pressure on gold, other metals

The Fed’s hawkish shift provided renewed strength to the U.S. dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.

The  rose 0.1% in Asia hours on Tuesday and hovered near a two-year high it reached last week.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Other precious metals were largely muted. inched up 1.2% to $960.15 an ounce, while gained 0.3% to $30.265 an ounce.

Copper subdued on strong dollar, seasonal factors

Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued and moved within tight ranges on Tuesday as a strong greenback weighed on the red metal.

Analysts attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.

Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange were largely unchanged at $8,954.50 a ton, while one-month were 0.5% higher at $4.1045 a pound.

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Commodities

Oil prices extend gains on fresh China stimulus measures, declining US inventories

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Investing.com– Oil prices continued their uptrend in Asian Trade on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, bolstered by new stimulus measures in China and a drop in inventories.

At 06:01 ET (05:01 GMT), traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel.

Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.

Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China. 

China’s fresh stimulus measures support oil prices

Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.

China’s economic growth is a key factor influencing global oil prices due to its status as the largest oil importer. When China’s economy thrives, its demand for crude oil rises to fuel industries, transportation, and other energy-intensive activities, often driving up oil prices. 

China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has faced significant hurdles, including weakening consumer confidence, faltering export demand, and a beleaguered property sector.

To counter the slowdown, Beijing has implemented several stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth.

Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.

US crude inventories shrink- API

US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the (API) data.

Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.

The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.

A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.

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Commodities

Gold prices rise on slightly weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions

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Investing.com– Gold prices were higher in premarket trade on Thursday due to a slightly weaker dollar as markets returned to trading after the Christmas holiday, while gains were limited as investors remained cautious following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

Traders also refrained from placing large bets in a holiday-shortened week, resulting in thin trade volumes.

rose around 0.4% to $2,626.53 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,641.6 an ounce by 07:55 am ET (12:55 GMT).

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to bullion’s gains. 

The Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel accused each other on Wednesday of hindering a ceasefire deal, with Hamas blaming Israel for imposing additional conditions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging Hamas reneged on prior understandings.

Gold is seen as a safe haven asset amid uncertainties in the market.

US dollar weakens but remains nears 2-yr high

The has edged higher on Thursday but hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.

The Fed’s hawkish shift last week provided renewed strength to the dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Gold prices fell sharply last week after the Fed policy meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period.

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds

The yellow metal has seen marginal moves this week, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook

Other precious were mixed on Thursday. declined 0.3% to $957.70 an ounce, while rose by 0.1% to $30.31 an ounce.

Copper edges up on China stimulus, strong dollar caps gains

Among industrial metals, prices gained after a Reuters report showed that Chinese authorities plan to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy.

The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.

Analysts also attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.

The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)  rose 0.2% to 74,220 yuan a ton.

Benchmark copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were closed on Thursday for the holiday.

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