Investing.com — is poised to emerge as the standout performer among industrial metals in 2025, driven by a combination of supply constraints and improving global economic conditions, as per analysts at UBS Global Research. 

Following a challenging year in 2024, characterized by uneven price movements across base metals, copper is expected to benefit from supply tightness and a rebound in manufacturing demand.

UBS projects that copper prices could reach $11,000 per metric ton by the end of 2025, fueled by a deficit in global market balances. 

Refined copper production growth is forecast to remain subdued due to low treatment and refining charges, as well as tight scrap availability. 

Additionally, while new smelter capacity in countries such as China and Indonesia is ramping up, the overall supply increase is anticipated to fall short of demand growth, which UBS estimates at 3.4% for the year.

Global economic recovery, particularly in the latter half of 2025, is expected to play a significant role in copper’s price momentum. 

UBS flags that manufacturing activity in the United States and other advanced economies is likely to improve, spurred by anticipated interest rate cuts and renewed fiscal stimulus in China. 

These factors are expected to offset some of the challenges posed by ongoing trade tensions and a slow start to the year.

China, which accounts for over half of global copper demand, remains a key factor in the market. 

While the country faces external pressures from U.S. trade policies and internal headwinds in its property sector, UBS analysts suggest that targeted stimulus measures, particularly those aimed at boosting household consumption, will provide critical support to copper demand.

Compared to other industrial metals, copper’s outlook is notably stronger. While zinc and aluminum are expected to post gains as well, their performance is likely to lag behind copper. 

Meanwhile, nickel and lead are projected to remain under pressure due to surpluses and weak demand fundamentals.

The robust demand for copper also stems from its integral role in the transition to a low-carbon economy. 

Its extensive use in renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles continues to underpin long-term demand growth, making it a key beneficiary of structural shifts in the global economy.

Despite the positive outlook, UBS warns of potential risks to the forecast. A significant deterioration in global economic conditions or insufficient policy support could weigh on copper prices. 

However, with a market deficit and tight supply dynamics, any pullbacks are expected to be temporary, solidifying copper’s position as the likely driver of price gains among industrial metals in 2025.

By Ryan Patrick Jones

(Reuters) – The U.S. state of Alaska has sued the Biden administration for what it calls violations of a Congressional directive to allow oil and gas development in a portion of the federal Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).

Monday’s lawsuit in the U.S. District Court in Alaska challenges the federal government’s December 2024 decision to offer oil and gas drilling leases in an area known as the coastal plain with restrictions.

The lawsuit said curbs on surface use and occupancy make it “impossible or impracticable to develop” 400,000 acres (162,000 hectares) of land the U.S. Interior Department plans to auction this month to oil and gas drillers.

The limits would severely limit future oil exploration and drilling in the refuge, it added.

“Interior’s continued and irrational opposition under the Biden administration to responsible energy development in the Arctic continues America on a path of energy dependence instead of utilizing the vast resources we have available,” Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy said in a statement.

Alaska wants the court to set aside the December decision and prohibit the department from issuing leases at the auction.

The department did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for the Bureau of Land Management declined to comment.

When combined with the department’s cancellation of leases granted during the waning days of Donald Trump’s presidency, Alaska says it will receive just a fraction of the $1.1 billion the Congressional Budget Office estimated it would get in direct lease-related revenues from energy development in the area.

The lawsuit is Alaska’s latest legal response to the Biden administration’s efforts to protect the 19.6-million-acre (8-million-hectare) ANWR for species such as polar bears and caribou.

An October 2023 lawsuit by the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority contested the administration’s decision to cancel the seven leases it held. Another state lawsuit in July 2024 sought to recover revenue lost as a result.

Drilling in the ANWR, the largest national wildlife refuge, was off-limits for decades and the subject of fierce political fights between environmentalists and Alaska’s political leaders, who have long supported development in the coastal plain.

In 2017, Alaska lawmakers secured that opportunity through a provision in a Trump-backed tax cut bill passed by Congress. In the final days of Trump’s administration, it issued nine 10-year leases for drilling in ANWR.

Under Biden, two lease winners withdrew from their holdings in 2022. In September, the interior department canceled the seven issued to the state industrial development body.