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Commodities

Why are crude oil prices rising? Concerns over Russian supplies 

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Crude oil price and dollar

Crude oil price and the dollar have always been linked. Oil prices rose on Monday amid positive sentiment on stock exchanges and a weakening U.S. dollar. Concerns over Russian supplies also supported the quotations. On the daily chart, the Brent futures form a kind of rising triangle with the upper bound of $107-108 per barrel. A break-up of this boundary might open the way to a further move to the area of $115-116 per barrel.

Why are crude oil prices rising? Russian oil and gas

As you can see, crude oil prices and charts began to rise on the back of recent news. Yesterday it became known that the flow of gas pipeline Nord Stream – 1 will again be limited. This time it is planned to shut down one more gas turbine engine “due to the end of the time between repairs”. Problems with gas supplies are perceived as an escalation of tensions between Russia and the EU in the energy sphere and increase anxiety in the market over Russian hydrocarbon supplies. Against such a backdrop, oil futures buyers are feeling more confident.

The volume of Russian exports is one of the key uncertainties in the second half of 2022 and in 2023. In December comes into force the European embargo on maritime oil supplies from Russia, and in February 2023 on the supply of petroleum products. Whether Russia will be able to avoid production cuts depends on how successful it will be in redirecting supplies to Asia. As of July 15, the average volume of Russian oil supplies to the Asian region was 1.7 million b/d, compared to 1.2 million b/d in January 2022. 1.3 million b/d is still going to Europe, for which new buyers have yet to be found.

Fed meeting

Tomorrow, the U.S. regulator will make an interest rate decision. According to the FedWatch Tool, markets are laying 77% odds that the rate will rise by 0.75pc, with another 23% accounting for 1pc. Even more important will be the Fed’s view of future monetary policy: whether the regulator is willing to raise rates further in an attempt to cool inflation. The more decisive the Fed will be in raising rates, the more the markets will fear an economic recession and a possible cooling of oil demand. Lower demand could make up for capacity shortages and lower prices. Crude oil prices and futures began to rise. 

WTI contracts at $8.5 lower

U.S. WTI discount to Brent by more than $8 a barrel amid cooling U.S. gasoline demand. Gasoline prices have been falling steadily over the past week. The national average price per gallon was $4,355, down from $4,521 a week ago, according to the AAA Automobile Association. Experts expect a $4 per gallon increase in the coming weeks.

Why are crude oil prices rising today? Demand for gasoline cannot be called weak, but it is lower than it was in July of last year. Last week, EIA data showed fuel inventories rising, and that put pressure on prices, even though the rest of the indicators were rather bullish. This week, the dynamics of gasoline inventories in the U.S. may remain the focus of investors’ attention.

As of this morning, Brent futures are up 1.8% and trading around $107 a barrel.



Commodities

Oil set for third weekly decline, pressured by Gaza ceasefire hopes

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By Laila Kearney and Georgina McCartney

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Friday and were on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by muted demand in China and hopes of a Gaza ceasefire deal that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns.

futures for September dipped 56 cents to $81.81 a barrel by 1250 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September fell 40 cents to $77.88.

For the week, Brent is trading down almost 1% while WTI is down more than 2%.

Recent data, such as July 20 figures showing that China’s total fuel oil imports dropped 11% in the first half of 2024, have raised concern about the wider demand outlook in China.

In the Middle East, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza have been gaining momentum.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

A ceasefire has been the subject of negotiations for months, but U.S. officials believe the parties are closer than ever to an agreement for a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release by Hamas of female, sick, elderly and wounded hostages.

Oil price declines were capped, however, by threats to production from Canadian wildfires, a large stocks draw and continued hopes of a September cut to U.S. interest rates after strong economic data, said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.

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Commodities

Oil prices fall; set for weekly losses on demand concerns

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell Friday, on course for a third consecutive losing week as concerns over sluggish demand conditions in Asia weighed.

At 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT), fell 0.9% to $81.62 a barrel, and dropped 0.8% to $77.66 a barrel.

Crude set for third straight week of losses

Both benchmarks are on course for another losing week, the third in succession, with down just under 1% and WTI nearly 3% lower.

Persistent concerns over slowing growth and demand in top importer China have been the dominant factor, part triggered by GDP data from last week, which showed the Chinese economy grew less than expected in the second quarter.

Additionally, more data this week showed the country’s apparent oil demand fell 8.1% to 13.66 million barrels per day in June.

Beijing unexpectedly cut a swathe of lending rates this week, further trying to loosen monetary policy amid growing concerns over sluggish growth. 

Apart from China, uncertainty over Japan also grew following middling , while weak activity data in Europe also pointed to economic woes.  

Gaza ceasefire in focus

Also weighing on the crude market have been increasing hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza.

The leaders of Australia, New Zealand and Canada called for an immediate ceasefire in a joint statement on Friday, while U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to help efforts at reaching a deal, striking a tougher tone than President Joe Biden.

A ceasefire has been talked about for months, but if it was to occur then some of the risk premium could be removed from the market.

Strong US GDP, rate cut hopes offer some support 

On the flip side,  data, released on Thursday, showed that the U.S. economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, despite pressure from high rates and relatively sticky inflation.

The reading drove up hopes that the world’s biggest fuel consumer was headed for a “soft landing,” where economic growth remained steady while inflation eased. 

These hopes were also lifted by the data showing overall U.S. inflation cooled as expected in June.

According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the  (PCE) price index slipped to 2.5% in June, from 2.6% the prior month. .

Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, the year-on-year “core” gauge, widely known as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, remained at 2.6%, only marginally above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

This sparked increased optimism over a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Data showing steady drawdowns in U.S. also offered some positive cues to oil markets, as fuel demand in the country remained robust amid the travel-heavy summer season. 

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Commodities

Canadian wildfire reaches Jasper, firefighters battle to protect oil pipeline

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(Reuters) -A wildfire reached the Canadian town of Jasper, Alberta on Wednesday, one of hundreds ravaging the western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, as firefighters battled to save key facilities such as the Trans Mountain Pipeline, authorities said.

Wildfires burning uncontrolled across the region include 433 in British Columbia and 176 in Alberta, more than a dozen of them in the area of Fort McMurray, an oil sands hub.

The pipeline, which can carry 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Edmonton to Vancouver, runs through a national park in the Canadian Rockies near the picturesque tourist town, from which about 25,000 people were forced to evacuate on Tuesday.

“Firefighters … are working to save as many structures as possible and protect critical infrastructure, including the wastewater treatment plant, communications facilities, the Trans Mountain Pipeline,” Parks Canada said in a post on Facebook (NASDAQ:).

The pipeline operator did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment, but said earlier it was safely operating the pipeline and had deployed sprinkler protection as a preventive measure.

In the day’s last update, Jasper National Park said it could not report on the extent of damage to specific locations or neighbourhoods, and that it would provide further updates on Thursday.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government approved Alberta’s request for federal assistance.

“We’re deploying Canadian Armed Forces resources, evacuations support, and more emergency wildfire resources to the province immediately – and we’re coordinating firefighting and airlift assistance. Alberta, we’re with you.”

The town, and the park, which draws more than two million tourists a year, were evacuated on Monday night, at a time when officials estimated there were 15,000 visitors in the park.

© Reuters. Smoke rises from the Lower Campbell Creek wildfire (K51472) wildfire northwest of Beaverdell, British Columbia, Canada July 24, 2024.   BC Wildfire Service/Handout via REUTERS.

Deteriorating air quality forced firefighters and others lacking breathing equipment to evacuate to the town of Hinton, about 100 km (62 miles) away, park authorities said on Facebook on Wednesday evening.

Officials of Parks Canada earlier said they expected rain to arrive overnight.

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