Bad harvests in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, may raise black coffee prices. Plantations suffered from drought and then frost last year and producers expect only half of the Arabica crop to be harvested. The Wall Street Journal reported.

A low harvest, the newspaper noted, could exacerbate international supply shortages and contribute to a new price hike. According to Thiago Casarini Trading Co, a Brazilian coffee broker, global arabica prices are likely to rise as Brazil begins to prepare estimates for this year’s crop.

Coffee price chart – what influences the price movement?

The Minasul Coffee Cooperative told the WSJ that it will only be able to deliver half of its promised coffee volumes this year. The company is expected to get less than a million bags of coffee, compared to 2.2 million in 2020.

While global consumption will outpace production for the second year in a row, Intercontinental Exchange coffee stocks are at their lowest level in a century, according to Fitch Solutions.

“Coffee futures rose in 2021 and earlier this year, hitting a near 10-year high of $2.58 a pound in February,” the newspaper notes. Since then, futures have fallen to about $2.23 a pound, but still remain elevated compared to previous years.

Last summer, the price of Arabica futures in trading on the Intercontinental Exchange ICE rose above $2 per pound (0.45 kg) for the first time since October 2014. This was attributed to fears of lower output after a sharp drop in temperature in the three largest coffee-growing regions of Brazil – the states of Paraná, São Paulo and Minas Gerais. On November 30, the price of futures for December reached $2.33 per pound, the highest since November 1, 2011.

Earlier we reported that exchange traded gas prices by month in Europe are down slightly.