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22,702 BTC Flow to Exchanges: What History Tells Us About the Current Bitcoin Downtrend

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The crypto market’s recent pullback has rattled investors, with Bitcoin and altcoins experiencing sharp declines. While volatility remains a concern, fundamental indicators suggest a potential turnaround could be on the horizon.

Bitcoin is currently on a seven-week slump after reaching an all-time high of approximately $109,000 on January 19 this year. This decline followed months of aggressive accumulation by whale and shark addresses after Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, which catalyzed a surge in investor confidence and network growth.

The Return of Whale Accumulation

According to Santiment’s latest insights, wallet creation spiked, as noted by the emergence of a whopping 2.51 million new Bitcoin addresses in just one week post-election. This was indicative of increased retail and institutional interest.

However, accumulation slowed significantly after Trump’s inauguration which led to a profit-taking event on February 19. This eventually culminated in a steady decline in Bitcoin’s price as it hit a low of $77,000 this week.

Adding to the bearish pressure, a net move of 22,702 BTC flowed from non-exchange wallets to exchanges between February 20 and March 8, a trend Santiment notes as a common precursor to sell-offs and increased volatility.

Despite this downturn, an important counter-signal has emerged – high-capital BTC wallets have begun accumulating again since March 3, yet the market has continued to slide. Historically, when key stakeholders buy amid severe pessimism, it has often signaled an impending market bottom.

Market Sentiment, Altcoin Performance, and the Road Ahead

Social sentiment metrics further validate this outlook. Analyzing the prevalence of Bitcoin price predictions on social media, Santiment observed a growing imbalance between bullish and bearish forecasts. Currently, mentions of sub-$69,000 price targets significantly outweigh those predicting six-figure valuations, which suggests a shift toward extreme fear among retail traders.

Historically, markets tend to move against the majority consensus, implying that Bitcoin may be nearing a reversal as panic-driven selling reaches its peak.

Furthermore, Bitcoin traders who have been active in the past 30 days are down an average of 11%, while those in the past year are at a 5% deficit. Although not yet in historically extreme negative zones, these losses indicate that risk is diminishing compared to typical market conditions.

Broader altcoin markets have suffered even steeper declines, as seen with Ethereum, and Solana which were down by 29%, and 40% respectively, along with meme coins such as Dogecoin and Pepe experiencing 38-39% drawdowns. However, the cyclical nature of crypto suggests that such deep corrections are often followed by strong recoveries.

While macroeconomic headwinds, including concerns over Trump’s tariffs and a potential trade war, may contribute to ongoing turbulence, Santiment added that the structural forces of accumulation, extreme trader pain, and widespread FUD are aligning in favor of a potential market rebound. The crypto analytic platform, however, noted that the path forward may still be rocky in the short term.

“So in short, the sky is not falling in crypto. We may see a bit more turbulence due to macroeconomic and global concerns, such as equity and crypto traders’ concerns related to Trump’s tariffs and an impending growing trade war beginning to emerge. But with key stakeholders beginning to accumulate once again, traders already in serious pain, and FUD becoming increasingly loud on social media, we are seeing positive signs beginning to emerge.”

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) Hits a New ATH, But It’s Not What You Think

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TL;DR

  • One important BTC metric reached a new all-time high, highlighting strong adoption and optimism across investors.
  • Analysts see potential for BTC to hit nearly $120K, but with RSI nearing 70, a short-term correction could be looming.

Not the Peak the Bulls Expected

Despite the retreat after hitting a new historical peak of almost $112,000 on May 22, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has been booming in the past several months. Currently, it is worth just over $107,000, representing a 53% increase on a yearly basis.

The bull run coincides with the rising number of BTC holders, which, according to the crypto analytics platform, reached a new all-time high of 55.39 million. The development can be interpreted as an optimistic sign, as it indicates growing adoption and higher demand for the primary cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Price Targets

We mentioned BTC’s price rally witnessed in the last months, and now let’s see if there’s more room for growth, at least according to some popular analysts.

The X user Captain Faibik recently claimed that the valuation could surge to a new all-time high of over $113,000 should it break the resistance level of $105,700.

CryptoBullet chipped in, too. They noted BTC’s recent resurgence above $107,000, suggesting that the price “is ready to go higher” and set a target of $119,000.

On the other hand, investors should keep an eye on Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index, which neared overbought territory at almost 70. This signals that the asset’s valuation has increased too rapidly over a short period, which could be a precursor to a correction.

BTC RSI
BTC RSI, Source: Crypto Waves

Conversely, ratios below 30 are considered bullish, indicating that the price may be headed for a rally.

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Soars Above $107K as US and China Resume Trade Talks in London

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Bitcoin’s price has taken off in Europe’s afternoon trading session, pushing above $107,000 at the time of this writing.

The cryptocurrency was trading below $106,000 throughout the morning session but the bulls took control and pushed the price up, liquidating around $60 million worth of short positions in the past four hours alone.

BTCUSD_2025-06-09_14-19-56
Source: TradingView

As CryptoPotato reported on X, this coincided with another whale betting big on BTC on the popular decentralized exchange – Hyperliquid. The entity deposited over $5 million in USDC and instantly opened a long position with 20x leverage.

Of course, this probably doesn’t have much to do with the recent increase, which is likely connected to renewed expectations of a positive resolution between the US and China on tariffs.

The delegations of both countries have arrived in London and are about to commence talks to stabilize the fragile trade truce, according to Walter Bloomberg on X. The US team is led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, while the Chinese delegation is led by the Vice Premier He Lifeng.

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World Governments Are Issuing More Debt Than Ever, Will Bitcoin Benefit?

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“World governments are issuing more debt than ever,” commented the Kobeissi Letter over the weekend.

Global sovereign bond issuances hit a record $18 trillion last year, and $16 trillion of that debt was issued by developed countries.

Additionally, global government bond issuance has nearly doubled since 2019 on an unsustainable debt trajectory, it noted.

“Historically high public spending on social programs and defense, new tax and spending policies, as well as elevated interest rates, have been behind this massive surge.”

More Debt More Bonds

Government bonds are a way for nations to raise money by issuing interest-earning debt securities to finance public spending.

As debt surges, more of it needs to be refinanced, which means more bond buyers are needed, which puts pressure on the bond markets.

On June 6, the Financial Times reported that investor demand for long-term government debt is weakening, as evidenced by recent auctions of 20-year bonds in Japan and the US, which were poorly received, triggering sharp price drops and rising yields.

Prominent investors such as BlackRock’s Larry Fink and billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warned of unsustainable deficits, especially in the US, which is considering a $2.4 trillion debt increase, prompting fears of a path to insolvency.

Long-term bond yields serve as benchmarks for corporate debt, and higher yields will raise borrowing costs for businesses, risking growth. Additionally, a debt market dominated by hedge funds and short-term players may become more volatile.

Bitcoin The Beneficiary

Store-of-value assets like Bitcoin could benefit significantly from the unfolding global bond market strain and loss of faith in sovereign debt.

If government debt becomes less attractive due to high yields, poor auction performance, and credit rating downgrades, investors may seek alternatives to store capital.

Governments may also increasingly rely on inflation to erode the real value of debt, and BTC has often been considered an inflation hedge.

Being non-sovereign and decentralized, Bitcoin also offers a parallel financial system that is immune to political manipulation or debt monetization.

As countries and investors diversify away from US Treasuries and the dollar, Bitcoin could also be part of a new neutral reserve asset basket, especially in emerging markets.

The asset was holding steady at around $105,500 at the time of writing, having recovered from its Friday dip to $101,000.BTC has gained more than 50% over the past 12 months.

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