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Cryptocurrency

4 reasons why Ethereum price can’t break $1,970

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Ether (ETH) price faced resistance after hitting the $1,970 level on July 3. A number of factors capped the rally, including higher odds of more interest rate hikes in the coming months and a tighter regulatory cryptocurrency environment.

Macro headwinds from the Fed

Besides the external factors, the Ethereum network has faced withdrawals from its smart contract applications, which also put the June rally in check.

Investors now question whether the tailwinds from Bitcoin’s (BTC) ETF requests have faded, opening room for a correction down to the $1,700 level last seen on June 16.

The recent macroeconomic events may provide some hints, including the, U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew by an annualized 2% in the first quarter, Germany’s Consumer Price Index increased 6.8% in June versus the previous year, and The China Caixin global services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reporting activity expansion.

Thus, strong economic indicators have heightened investors’ expectations of further tightening measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s suggestion of two more interest rate hikes in 2023, coupled with the increasing cost of capital and higher returns on fixed-income investments, have diminished interest in cryptocurrencies.

On the regulatory front, the most pressing news and events included:

TVL nears 3-year lows as network demand falls

The Ethereum network is likely facing its own challenges, particularly after co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated on June 29 that he does not stake all of his Ether due to the complexities associated with multisignature wallets.

Ethereum network total smart contract deposits (TVL) in ETH terms. Source: DefiLlama

The total value locked (TVL), which measures the deposits locked in Ethereum’s smart contracts, reached its lowest level since August 2020. The indicator declined by 3.1% to 13.7 million ETH in the 30 days leading to July 4, according to DefiLlama.

A lower TVL means either investors are losing interest in the network’s smart contract use or have moved to layer-2 alternatives in search of lower transaction fees. Either way, the potential demand for the Ethereum network is negatively impacted, thus being interpreted as bearish.

ETH price gains fueled by leveraged longs

Analyzing the positions of professional traders in ETH derivatives is crucial to determine the likelihood of Ether’s price surpassing the $1,970 resistance level.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

ETH top traders’ futures long-to-short ratio. Source: CoinGlass

Despite Ether trading within a narrow range of $1,815 to $1,975 since June 22, professional traders have increased their leveraged long positions in futures, as indicated by the long-to-short ratio.

At crypto exchange Binance, the long-to-short ratio sharply increased, from 1.14 on June 20 to 1.30 on July 4. Similarly, at OKX, the long-to-short ratio also increased from 0.76 on June 20 to a 2.25 peak on July 4, favoring leveraged longs.

To exclude externalities that might have solely impacted the Ether futures, one should analyze the ETH options markets. The 25% delta skew indicator compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put option premium is higher than the call options.

Ether 30-day 25% skew. Source: Laevitas

The skew indicator will move above 8% if traders fear an Ether price crash. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 8% skew.

As displayed above, the delta skew flirted with moderate optimism between July 3 and July 4, but was unable to sustain such a level. Presently, the negative 2% metric displays a balanced demand for call and put options.

Related: The Supreme Court could stop the SEC’s war on crypto

ETH at $1,700 might be distant, but so is $2,000

Considering these four reasons, namely increased leverage long-to-short ratio, declining TVL, potential interest rate increases, and tighter cryptocurrency regulation, ETH bears are in a better position to hold back the positive price impact coming from the Bitcoin ETF saga.

Although these factors may not be sufficient to drive ETH price down to $1,700, they present significant obstacles for ETH bulls. Notably, the previous attempt to brea $2,000 on April 13 lasted less than a week. Therefore, in the short term, bears have better odds of successfully defending the $1,970 resistance.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Cryptocurrency

SEC Reviews Grayscale’s Solana ETF Filing, Indicating Possible Shift in Crypto Regulation

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged Grayscale’s filing for a Solana-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).

It is the first time the agency has engaged with an ETF proposal tracking a cryptocurrency that was once considered a security.

‘A Positive Sign’

The acknowledgment, relayed on February 6, caught many by surprise, given that just six weeks ago, the regulator, then led by former Chair Gary Gensler, asked the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to withdraw similar Solana ETF filings.

Breaking the news on X, ETF expert James Seyffart pointed out that the regulator’s action was notable because it had previously refused to engage with other companies that had attempted to file SOL-based exchange-traded products. Further, he suggested it could be a “positive sign” for crypto firms, including exchanges, that the SEC has sued over claims that Solana is a security.

Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, shared similar sentiments, calling it a “notable development” and adding:

“We are now in new territory, albeit just a baby step, but seemingly the direct result of leadership change.”

Earlier in the year, Seyffart had said that proposals for ETFs tracking the world’s fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap may face delays until 2026 because of ongoing lawsuits involving the classification of SOL as a security. The SEC had taken separate legal action against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the exchanges of offering unregistered securities for listing tokens such as Solana and Cardano.

Grayscale, the biggest digital asset manager in the world, first applied to convert its Grayscale Solana Trust into an ETF towards the end of last year. It launched the product slightly more than three years ago, and as of the start of this month, it had over 7 million shares outstanding.

Accepting its filing is just the first step in a lengthy process. The regulator now has a 240-day window to approve or deny the proposal.

CBOE Files XRP ETF Requests

Elsewhere, the CBOE has filed 19b-4 forms on behalf of several crypto investment firms, including Bitwise, Canary Funds, WisdomTree, and 21Shares, for XRP ETFs. The documents represent the next stage in the approval process, following the submission of S-1 registration statements.

While their validation is far from guaranteed, the SEC’s recent engagement with Litecoin ETF proposals suggests there could be a more favorable environment for crypto-based financial products going forward.

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Binance Test Token Pumps to $37M After Accidental Name Reveal

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A test meme coin (TST) created for a tutorial on the Four.Meme platform experienced an unexpected surge in value following a social media post by former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, popularly known as CZ.

The token, originally intended as a demonstration asset on the BNB Chain, saw its market cap skyrocket as traders and influencers turned it into a fully functional cryptocurrency.

Accidental Launch

According to an X post from Zhao, the meme coin’s name was briefly visible in a single frame of the training video. After realizing it had been exposed, the team removed the video from the web. However, by then, it had already been spread across the internet.

The video and the token soon caught the eye of several Chinese crypto influencers, with their endorsements creating further interest and attracting more traders. What had started as a simple test asset quickly transformed into a fully tradable coin.

Zhao has since clarified that neither he nor Binance endorsed the coin, stating:

“This is NOT an official token by the BNB Chain team, or anyone. It is a test token used just for that video tutorial. Nothing more.”

He added that a team member had also deleted the private key for the creator address used in the tutorial, which contained 0.13% of the token supply. He further stated that no one on the training team or at Binance held any of the cryptocurrency.

Despite this, the former executive suggested restoring the instruction video while also encouraging the community by commenting, “Happy trading.”

TST’s Meteoric Rise

According to DEX Screener data, TST, which initially held a valuation of just under $500,000, saw its fully diluted value surge beyond $25 million. Eager traders drove its market cap past $37 million, with its liquidity reaching $4.5 million.

As the coin continued gaining traction, it was listed on PancakeSwap. Shortly after, it was also added to the MEXC exchange, where its price fluctuated between $0.02 and $0.04. Early investors also made substantial profits, with one trader reportedly earning $303,600 from sales and another securing $258,200.

The rapid rise of the meme coin shows the intense demand for this asset class. However, despite their popularity, they have faced growing scrutiny in recent weeks. Pump.fun is currently the subject of a proposed class-action lawsuit from investors alleging it marketed and sold unregistered securities.

Additionally, the launch of a Trump-themed meme coin in January also caused controversy within the industry. Mark Cuban criticized the initiative as a setback for crypto’s legitimacy, arguing that it weakens ownership and fuels speculation.

Senator Elizabeth Warren also called for an investigation into the Trump token, citing concerns over ethics, foreign influence, and regulatory oversight.

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Bitcoin Eyes $100K After Market Crash, Trump Approves US Sovereign Wealth Fund: Weekly Crypto Recap

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Somewhat unexpectedly, all the drama started during the previous weekend, which is typically a calmer period for the financial markets. Well, except crypto, because it’s open 24/7.

President Trump’s implementation of new taxes on Canada, China, and Mexico brought mass panic across the charts. On Saturday evening and Sunday, BTC tumbled from $102,000 to under $100,000 and down to $97,000. It managed to catch its breath on Sunday afternoon, but the bears were back in control of the market on Monday morning.

In a matter of hours, BTC slumped hard and fell below $92,000 for the first time in about two weeks. Consequently, bitcoin had lost ten grand within 24 hours and roughly $15,000 since last Friday when it stood above $106,000.

After that multi-week low, though, the cryptocurrency bounced off and jumped above $100,000 and back to $102,000, thus completing another ten-grand move within hours. Nevertheless, it failed to sustain within six-digit territory and headed south in the following days. It flirted with the $96,000 support line on several occasions but so far has managed to maintain above it.

Hours ago, BTC pumped by a few grand and touched $100,000 for the first time since Monday, following the US jobs data. However, it couldn’t keep the momentum going and is now back below it.

The weekly charts are quite painful for most altcoins. Ethereum is down by 17% and trades well below $2,800. XRP has plunged by 18% to under $2.5, while DOGE, ADA, LINK, AVAX, and SUI have plummeted by over 20%.

In fact, OM is the only larger-cap altcoin in the green. An 18% surge since last Friday has pushed its price to well above $6.

Market Data

Crypto Weekly. Source: QuantifyCrypto

Market Cap: $3.359T | 24H Vol: $154B | BTC Dominance: 58.5%

BTC: $98,750 (-5%) | ETH: $2,750 (-17.25% ) | XRP: $2.49 (-18.3%)

This Week’s Crypto Headlines You Can’t Miss

Bitcoin Rallies Toward $100K as Mexico and US Suspend Tariffs. As explained above, the highly volatile trading week due to Trump’s tariffs against a few countries led to a substantial crash in the market. However, the suspension agreement between the US and Mexico sent BTC flying on Monday evening, with a brief surge toward $100,000.

Trump Approves US Sovereign Wealth Fund, Will it Buy Bitcoin? The new US President dominates the news on all fronts and his decision to approve a US sovereign wealth fund earlier this week broke Crypto Twitter as many anticipated that it will finally see the inclusion of BTC and perhaps other digital assets. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case, at least for now.

MicroStrategy Drops ‘Micro’ From Name After Record BTC Buying Quarter. The biggest corporate holder of bitcoin rebranded its name this week by dropping ‘Micro.’ The company, now called simply ‘Strategy,’ has introduced BTC into its logo and reaffirmed its leadership position in the bitcoin landscape by registering its best quarter in terms of accumulation.

Arthur Hayes Slams US Bitcoin Reserve Plans and Crypto Regulation Efforts. The BitMEX co-founder is among the critics of the supposed US bitcoin reserve as he believes that such a move would be mostly political and can be a double-edged sword. He noted that ‘what can be bought can be sold,’ and a potential accumulation of BTC by the US government could be devastating if there’s a change in the nation’s political scene in the next few years.

Crypto Analyst Says Altcoins May Take 2 Months to Recover, Here’s Why. The aforementioned crash in the crypto markets hit the altcoins the hardest, with many charting double-digit losses daily and on a weekly scale. A popular analyst believes many of them would need at least a month or two to recover as their corrections were deeper.

BlackRock Expands Crypto Offerings With Bitcoin ETP in Europe: Report. The asset manager behind the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF plans to expand its portfolio of BTC-related products. BlackRock aims to launch a BTC-linked exchange-traded product in Europe, which would become its first entry into the European crypto scene.

Charts

This week, we have a chart analysis of Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Solana – click here for the complete price analysis.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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