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4 reasons why Ethereum price can’t break $1,970

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Ether (ETH) price faced resistance after hitting the $1,970 level on July 3. A number of factors capped the rally, including higher odds of more interest rate hikes in the coming months and a tighter regulatory cryptocurrency environment.

Macro headwinds from the Fed

Besides the external factors, the Ethereum network has faced withdrawals from its smart contract applications, which also put the June rally in check.

Investors now question whether the tailwinds from Bitcoin’s (BTC) ETF requests have faded, opening room for a correction down to the $1,700 level last seen on June 16.

The recent macroeconomic events may provide some hints, including the, U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew by an annualized 2% in the first quarter, Germany’s Consumer Price Index increased 6.8% in June versus the previous year, and The China Caixin global services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reporting activity expansion.

Thus, strong economic indicators have heightened investors’ expectations of further tightening measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s suggestion of two more interest rate hikes in 2023, coupled with the increasing cost of capital and higher returns on fixed-income investments, have diminished interest in cryptocurrencies.

On the regulatory front, the most pressing news and events included:

TVL nears 3-year lows as network demand falls

The Ethereum network is likely facing its own challenges, particularly after co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated on June 29 that he does not stake all of his Ether due to the complexities associated with multisignature wallets.

Ethereum network total smart contract deposits (TVL) in ETH terms. Source: DefiLlama

The total value locked (TVL), which measures the deposits locked in Ethereum’s smart contracts, reached its lowest level since August 2020. The indicator declined by 3.1% to 13.7 million ETH in the 30 days leading to July 4, according to DefiLlama.

A lower TVL means either investors are losing interest in the network’s smart contract use or have moved to layer-2 alternatives in search of lower transaction fees. Either way, the potential demand for the Ethereum network is negatively impacted, thus being interpreted as bearish.

ETH price gains fueled by leveraged longs

Analyzing the positions of professional traders in ETH derivatives is crucial to determine the likelihood of Ether’s price surpassing the $1,970 resistance level.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

ETH top traders’ futures long-to-short ratio. Source: CoinGlass

Despite Ether trading within a narrow range of $1,815 to $1,975 since June 22, professional traders have increased their leveraged long positions in futures, as indicated by the long-to-short ratio.

At crypto exchange Binance, the long-to-short ratio sharply increased, from 1.14 on June 20 to 1.30 on July 4. Similarly, at OKX, the long-to-short ratio also increased from 0.76 on June 20 to a 2.25 peak on July 4, favoring leveraged longs.

To exclude externalities that might have solely impacted the Ether futures, one should analyze the ETH options markets. The 25% delta skew indicator compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put option premium is higher than the call options.

Ether 30-day 25% skew. Source: Laevitas

The skew indicator will move above 8% if traders fear an Ether price crash. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 8% skew.

As displayed above, the delta skew flirted with moderate optimism between July 3 and July 4, but was unable to sustain such a level. Presently, the negative 2% metric displays a balanced demand for call and put options.

Related: The Supreme Court could stop the SEC’s war on crypto

ETH at $1,700 might be distant, but so is $2,000

Considering these four reasons, namely increased leverage long-to-short ratio, declining TVL, potential interest rate increases, and tighter cryptocurrency regulation, ETH bears are in a better position to hold back the positive price impact coming from the Bitcoin ETF saga.

Although these factors may not be sufficient to drive ETH price down to $1,700, they present significant obstacles for ETH bulls. Notably, the previous attempt to brea $2,000 on April 13 lasted less than a week. Therefore, in the short term, bears have better odds of successfully defending the $1,970 resistance.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Cryptocurrency

Stablecoins Emerging as The Dominant Force in Crypto: Coinbase

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Sixteen years after Bitcoin’s launch, stablecoins are emerging as the key force in crypto’s mainstream adoption, particularly for payments and financial operations, said Coinbase in a research report on June 10.

It noted that there was a soaring interest from companies, with 81% of crypto-aware small and medium businesses (SMBs) expressing interest in using stablecoins.

Additionally, Fortune 500 companies showing stablecoin interest have tripled compared to 2024, and 82% of SMBs said crypto can solve at least one major financial challenge.

Stablecoins: The Future of Finance

The firm also reported that organic stablecoin transfer volume has reached unprecedented levels, with the two highest monthly volume transfers in history over the past year in December and April.

The stats don’t stop there.

There are more than 160 million stablecoin holders worldwide, and global stablecoin supply grew 54% year-over-year. Additionally, stablecoin transfer volume in 2024 hit $27.6 trillion, surpassing Visa and Mastercard combined.

“Regulatory clarity is the unlock for crypto’s next chapter,” the report noted, citing the GENIUS Act and other bills that are making their way through US Congress.

“An overwhelming 9 in 10 Fortune 500 executives agree that clear, consistent US regulation around crypto, blockchain, and onchain technologies is essential to support ongoing innovation. “

The United States is not the only nation pushing for stablecoin regulation. This week, the newly elected president of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, made good on his campaign pledge by proposing the Digital Asset Basic Act.

The legislation allows local companies to issue stablecoins with a minimum equity capital of 500 million KRW ($US368,000), and they need to guarantee refunds through reserves and get regulatory approval.

However, the wheels are turning much more slowly in Europe, where the European Central Bank wants its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) and regional governments want to maintain their tight grip on monetary flows.

Stablecoin Ecosystem Outlook

The current stablecoin ecosystem is dominated by just two players, Tether and Circle.

Tether has a 61% stablecoin market share with $155 billion in circulation. USDT supply has surged around 38% over the past 12 months to an all-time high on June 10.

Circle’s USDC has also surged with a circulation of $61 billion, giving it a market share of 24%. The two companies produce 85% of the stablecoins in the market at the moment.

Maker’s USDS, formerly DAI, is the third-largest with $7.2 billion and the only true high-cap decentralized stablecoin.

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Bitcoin at $105K: Breakout or Breakdown Next? Experts Split

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Bitcoin (BTC) is once again testing the nerves of traders worldwide, hovering just above $105,000 today as forecasts split the crypto community in half.

Will the king cryptocurrency explode to $175,000 this cycle, or nosedive to under $80,000 if fear grips the market?

The $175K Dream

On the bullish side, pseudonymous chart-watcher Egrag Crypto supercharged hopium this week, predicting a huge breakout in the next few months. According to the analyst, BTC’s historical cycle data suggests the asset is primed for a 102% surge, which would catapult it to $175,000 from its current levels.

“The average of three major pumps this cycle is 102%, hitting $175K!” they tweeted, pointing to eerily similar patterns in previous bull markets.

The way Bitcoin shrugged off the effects of recent geopolitical upheavals has only bolstered Egrag’s bullish case. After Israel struck multiple Iranian nuclear and military assets, the cryptocurrency cratered, going from a daily high near $108,500 to just under $103,000, before clawing its way back to around $105,000 today.

Other optimists, like DeFiTracer, also highlighted similar war-driven dips in April and October 2024, when each was followed by 48% and 74% explosions upward. “Don’t let whales and news manipulate you,” he wrote on X, suggesting June’s 4% dip is merely fuel for the next bump upward.

The Bear Trap

However, not everyone is buying the hype just yet. Seasoned analyst Ali Martinez has tempered the euphoria, warning that the market could be on the brink of a sharp correction if key levels don’t hold.

He backed his pessimism, pointing to whales offloading nearly 30,000 BTC in the past week as well as a weakening support floor around the hundred grand level. If this floor gives way, Martinez predicts a drop to as low as $78,500.

His sentiment was echoed by crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe, who noted that BTC just failed to hold above $106,000, triggering a liquidity cascade southwards. “Two options,” he warned: A sub-$100,000 buying opportunity or a fresh rally if prices hold at around $102,500.

Market observer Axel Adler Jr. also weighed in, drawing attention to BTC’s OBV (On-Balance Volume), which is still stuck in the red near $100,000. According to him, it means that any bullish momentum could be paper-thin.

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Cryptocurrency

BTC Rejected at $106K as Middle East Attacks Intensify and Trump Threatens Iran: Weekend Watch

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Bitcoin’s price rose to over $106,000 hours ago, but the latest developments in the Middle East conflict, as well as Trump’s threats against Iran, pushed it south by over a grand.

Most larger-cap alts are slightly in the red, including HYPE, which has dumped by 5%, while PI is up by a similar percentage.

BTC Stopped at $106K

The primary cryptocurrency was riding high at the beginning of the previous business week as it pumped above $110,000 on several occasions by Wednesday. However, each attempt was met with an immediate rejection, and the last one pushed BTC south to under $106,000.

Although the bulls managed to recover some ground on Thursday and pushed bitcoin to $108,400, the quickly escalating tension in the Middle East resulted in an immediate price drop that drove the asset south to under $103,000.

Although the attacks continued in the following 48 hours, including a few retaliations by Iran, BTC’s price recovered some ground and even jumped above $106,000 hours ago.

However, US President Trump weighed in on the matter once again at that point and threatened Iran with “the full strength and might of the US Armed Forces” if Tehran decides to retaliate against the US in some form.

Bitcoin slipped once again, but it’s still hovering above $105,000. Its market cap remains below $2.1 trillion, while its dominance over the alts is at 61.7% on CG.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

Alts React

Most alternative coins are slightly in the red once again on a daily scale. Ethereum is still above $2,500 after a minor decline, and similar price drops of around 1% are evident from DOGE, BNB, LINK, XRP, and SOL. HYPE has dumped the most from the larger-cap alts, having lost 5% of value.

In contrast, Pi Network’s native token has jumped 5% and now trades above $0.6 after the recent flash crash experienced on Friday.

The top 100 alts have a new member, as AB has skyrocketed by 20% and has entered the biggest crypto club.

The total crypto market cap is down by around $20 billion since yesterday to $3.380 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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