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4 reasons why Ethereum price can’t break $1,970

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Ether (ETH) price faced resistance after hitting the $1,970 level on July 3. A number of factors capped the rally, including higher odds of more interest rate hikes in the coming months and a tighter regulatory cryptocurrency environment.

Macro headwinds from the Fed

Besides the external factors, the Ethereum network has faced withdrawals from its smart contract applications, which also put the June rally in check.

Investors now question whether the tailwinds from Bitcoin’s (BTC) ETF requests have faded, opening room for a correction down to the $1,700 level last seen on June 16.

The recent macroeconomic events may provide some hints, including the, U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew by an annualized 2% in the first quarter, Germany’s Consumer Price Index increased 6.8% in June versus the previous year, and The China Caixin global services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reporting activity expansion.

Thus, strong economic indicators have heightened investors’ expectations of further tightening measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s suggestion of two more interest rate hikes in 2023, coupled with the increasing cost of capital and higher returns on fixed-income investments, have diminished interest in cryptocurrencies.

On the regulatory front, the most pressing news and events included:

TVL nears 3-year lows as network demand falls

The Ethereum network is likely facing its own challenges, particularly after co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated on June 29 that he does not stake all of his Ether due to the complexities associated with multisignature wallets.

Ethereum network total smart contract deposits (TVL) in ETH terms. Source: DefiLlama

The total value locked (TVL), which measures the deposits locked in Ethereum’s smart contracts, reached its lowest level since August 2020. The indicator declined by 3.1% to 13.7 million ETH in the 30 days leading to July 4, according to DefiLlama.

A lower TVL means either investors are losing interest in the network’s smart contract use or have moved to layer-2 alternatives in search of lower transaction fees. Either way, the potential demand for the Ethereum network is negatively impacted, thus being interpreted as bearish.

ETH price gains fueled by leveraged longs

Analyzing the positions of professional traders in ETH derivatives is crucial to determine the likelihood of Ether’s price surpassing the $1,970 resistance level.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

ETH top traders’ futures long-to-short ratio. Source: CoinGlass

Despite Ether trading within a narrow range of $1,815 to $1,975 since June 22, professional traders have increased their leveraged long positions in futures, as indicated by the long-to-short ratio.

At crypto exchange Binance, the long-to-short ratio sharply increased, from 1.14 on June 20 to 1.30 on July 4. Similarly, at OKX, the long-to-short ratio also increased from 0.76 on June 20 to a 2.25 peak on July 4, favoring leveraged longs.

To exclude externalities that might have solely impacted the Ether futures, one should analyze the ETH options markets. The 25% delta skew indicator compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put option premium is higher than the call options.

Ether 30-day 25% skew. Source: Laevitas

The skew indicator will move above 8% if traders fear an Ether price crash. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 8% skew.

As displayed above, the delta skew flirted with moderate optimism between July 3 and July 4, but was unable to sustain such a level. Presently, the negative 2% metric displays a balanced demand for call and put options.

Related: The Supreme Court could stop the SEC’s war on crypto

ETH at $1,700 might be distant, but so is $2,000

Considering these four reasons, namely increased leverage long-to-short ratio, declining TVL, potential interest rate increases, and tighter cryptocurrency regulation, ETH bears are in a better position to hold back the positive price impact coming from the Bitcoin ETF saga.

Although these factors may not be sufficient to drive ETH price down to $1,700, they present significant obstacles for ETH bulls. Notably, the previous attempt to brea $2,000 on April 13 lasted less than a week. Therefore, in the short term, bears have better odds of successfully defending the $1,970 resistance.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Cryptocurrency

Burgers and Bitcoin: Donald Trump Demonstrates Support for BTC at NYC Bar 

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The presidential candidate reiterated his support for digital assets on Sept. 18 by treating his supporters to burgers at a New York bar and paying with BTC.

Trump entered a crypto-themed venue called PubKey in Greenwich Village where he was met with applause from Bitcoiners and supporters.

“Who wants a burger?” he asked before spending almost a thousand dollars on burgers for those in the bar, reported Bloomberg.

Burgers and Bitcoin

Co-founder of PubKey, Drew Armstrong, said that Trump paid for the food using the Strike payments app which is built on the Lightning Network, and the venue received the BTC using the Zaprite app.

The Republican presidential candidate has been appealing to crypto holders and investors, which comprise a considerable vote-base in the United States. “Bitcoin is really happening,” he said at PubKey.

Another co-founder of PubKey, Thomas Pacchia, said Trump’s presence at the venue was “huge, iconic,” and influential for BTC, adding “A former president, a potential future president, this is a real coming of age for the Bitcoin community.”

He added that the transaction was the first time a former US president has used Bitcoin to purchase goods or services. Nevertheless, Democrat supporters outside the venue blasted Taylor Swift songs in protest.

Trump was on his way to a rally in Long Island, where he said he was serious about winning the state of his birth, which has voted Democrat in every presidential election since 1984.

As the election in early November nears, it is expected that Donald Trump will further emphasize his support for Bitcoin and the crypto industry to counter his Democrat rival, Kamala Harris, who has said very little on the subject.

Harris Edges Ahead

The Trump-themed memecoin MAGA (TRUMP) jumped 6.5% over the past 12 hours to reach $2.13 at the time of writing. However, the asset has been battered over the past seven days, dropping 25% since the same time last week.

Additionally, Trump officially launched his long-anticipated DeFi project, World Liberty Financial (WLF), through a live X Space event on Sept. 17.

National polls from FiveThirtyEight currently have Harris leading Trump by 48.5% to 45.2%. Moreover, Polymarket also has the Democrat candidate ahead.

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CertiK Ventures Announces $45 Million Investment Plan, Including Free Access to Community Security Tools

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[PRESS RELEASE – New York, US, September 19th, 2024]

On September 19, 2024, leading Web3 security firm CertiK, CertiK Ventures, OKX Ventures, and OKX Wallet hosted the “New Round, New Path” event during Token2049. During this event, CertiK announced a comprehensive upgrade of its products and services, which cover the entire life cycles of Web3 projects. Additionally, CertiK announced the launch of its free community security tools, including Token Scan and Wallet Scan, to support the evolving community. CertiK’s highly anticipated CertiK Ventures will invest $45 million in these endeavors to support high-potential, burgeoning Web3 projects.

CertiK is a first mover in Web3 security with a valuation of $2 billion, making it the highest-valued Web3 security company to date. Its investors include prominent institutions such as Insight Partners, Sequoia Capital, Tiger Global, and Goldman Sachs. CertiK’s core services include auditing, security scoring, compliance and anti-money laundering (AML), KYC, penetration testing, and incident response. To date, CertiK has provided security services to more than 4,700 projects across 150 countries, including renowned Web3 companies such as Ton, Ripple, Aptos, and Binance. The official launch of CertiK Ventures during Token2049 completes CertiK’s full-chain security solution, enabling its upgraded product suite to support projects from their early stages to becoming major industry players.

In addition, CertiK has introduced a range of free security tools, starting with Token Scan and Wallet Scan, to help users safeguard their assets. CertiK developed these tools based on extensive experience in conducting more than 70 white-hat operations, reporting more than 4,000 security incidents, discovering 115,000 code vulnerabilities, and protecting approximately $360 billion in assets. These free tools are designed to offer substantial support and empowerment to the community.

CertiK’s latest initiatives are not just product and service upgrades; they represent empowerment of and dedication toward Web3 security. With the announcement of its $45 million investment plan, CertiK Ventures will help drive the development of high-potential projects, accelerating the integration of innovation and security within the Web3 ecosystem.

Website | Company Twitter | Community Twitter | CertiK Alert | Telegram

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Net Outflows for Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs on Fed Rate-Cut Day

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In the days ahead of the highly anticipated US FOMC meeting, when the central bank was expected to lower the interest rates, local investors were on a shopping spree for spot Bitcoin ETFs.

However, that changed when the day arrived.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows

CryptoPotato reported yesterday the impressive streak for the four trading days leading to the FOMC meeting. As mentioned, just over $500 million in net inflows entered the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs from September 12 to September 17.

However, the landscape was different yesterday. Even though the Federal Reserve reduced the key interest rates by 50 basis points, while the general expectations were for a more modest 0.25% cut, the financial vehicles saw $52.7 million in net outflows on the day.

Ark Invest’s ARKB led the adverse trend with $43.4 million in net withdrawals. Grayscale’s initial and largest fund (GBTC) was next with $8.1 million, and BITB trailed behind with $3.9 million. The rest saw little to no actual flows, while Grayscale’s smaller and newer fund, BTC, notched $2.7 million in inflows.

BlackRock’s IBIT remains the largest of the bunch, with almost $21 billion in AUM. However, there has been only one day of positive flow for the past three weeks.

In contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC enjoyed a favorable streak of seven consecutive days of net inflows before yesterday’s lack of action.

Consistency for Ethereum ETFs

While the spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $500 million in net inflows in the days leading to the Fed’s policy pivot, the Ethereum counterparts didn’t have the same luxury. The withdrawals stood at $15.1 million on Tuesday and $9.4 million on Monday.

Their situation didn’t improve much yesterday when investors pulled out $9.8 million overall from the ETH-based products. Grayscale’s ETHE was at the forefront once again, seeing $14.7 million in net outflows.

The only silver lining came from BlackRock’s EHTA, which notched $4.9 million in net inflows. ETHA is the only new financial vehicle tracking the performance of Ethereum that has surpassed the coveted $1 billion milestone since its inception a couple of months back.

Despite the negative days for the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the underlying assets’ prices skyrocketed to multi-week peaks. BTC neared $63,000 earlier today, while ETH came close to $2,450.

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