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Analyst Forecasts BTC Short-Term Holders Could Drive Price to $162K in Weeks

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Bitcoin’s current rally may only be warming up, with market watchers predicting a potential surge to $162,000 by mid-June, largely driven by short-term holders approaching a critical profit threshold.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for those who’ve held the cryptocurrency for a maximum of three months sits at 27%.

The Short-Term Holder Catalyst

In a May 26 post on X, the macro researcher noted that historically, this cohort begins selling when unrealized profits go beyond 40%, creating notable price resistance.

His analysis shows the indicator rising at 0.818 percentage points per day, suggesting it could cross the 40% mark around June 11, 2025, at which point BTC could hit $162,000, barring unexpected macro disruptions.

Adler’s projection may have found some support from pseudonymous analyst Dr. Profit, who flagged a “rare and powerful” Golden Cross signal, which he claims has preceded major Bitcoin rallies in the last two years.

Noting an 87.8% historical accuracy rate on higher timeframes, he cited similar technical setups in October 2023 and October 2024, which triggered price increases of 170% and 173%, respectively.

With the latest signal flashing in May, Dr. Profit is maintaining a short-term range of $117,000 to $120,000, highlighting major price catalysts such as strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, which are absorbing new supply at nine times the mining rate, Strategy’s continued BTC accumulation, and a liquidity cluster at $113,000.

On-Chain Data Reinforcing Bullish Thesis

The flagship cryptocurrency’s recent on-chain behavior has also reinforced the bullish narrative. Per Santiment data, as of May 23, BTC’s Mean Dollar Age, which measures how long coins are held, had dropped from 441 to 429 days since mid-April. This suggests that dormant Bitcoin is moving again, something experts typically view as a hallmark of the early stages of a bull run.

Furthermore, figures from Glassnode indicate that while BTC recently hit an all-time high of $111,814 (ATH) on May 22, realized profit-taking remains subdued. Just $1 billion in profits were realized, an amount less than half of the volume seen when BTC first crossed $100,000.

Meanwhile, in the last 24 hours, the crypto asset has gained 2.3%, buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s extension of the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU, pushing its weekly rise to 6.7%.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s current price of $110,085 reflects a 16.3% climb over 30 days. And despite slipping 1.6% from its ATH, the king cryptocurrency’s market cap is holding firm at $2.18 trillion, cementing its position as the fifth-largest asset globally.

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Cryptocurrency

DOGE Breakout Confirmed? New Bullish Signal Emerges

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TL;DR

  • Dogecoin retests a descending trendline, confirms the breakout, and stabilizes above the $0.24 level.
  • Hidden and regular bullish divergences emerge, strengthening Dogecoin’s short-term upward price setup.
  • Active addresses decline, but price holds firm, signaling accumulation by larger and less active holders.

Dogecoin Retests Trendline and Holds Above Key Level

Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing a firm structure on the daily chart after retesting a descending trendline. The level, which previously acted as resistance, is now holding as support. The price bounced near $0.23 and has remained above that level through the latest sessions.

Meanwhile, this trendline has shifted from a ceiling to a floor, confirming the breakout. DOGE’s price stood at $0.242 at press time, marking a 2.5% gain in the past 24 hours. After pulling back from $0.27, DOGE is showing signs of holding its ground rather than slipping into a deeper retrace.

According to crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade, the daily RSI has confirmed a hidden bullish divergence. This pattern forms when the price makes a higher low while the RSI makes a lower low. It often indicates that the broader uptrend remains in place, despite weaker momentum.

There is no sign of bearish divergence. RSI has also exited the overbought zone, giving DOGE space to move higher without resistance from stretched momentum. These signals suggest the current pullback may have been temporary.

Dual Divergences Appear on 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Dogecoin formed two bullish divergence patterns between July 24 and 26. The first was a hidden bullish divergence, followed by a regular bullish divergence. These were observed in the same price zone, adding to the case for a trend shift.

DOGE price chart
Source: X

Price has moved higher since then. Buyers have stepped in near short-term lows, and the move above $0.24 confirms follow-through. The $0.22 level remains the main support in this setup.

Fewer Active Addresses, But Price Holds

Glassnode data shows Dogecoin’s number of active addresses has dropped to 58,688 as of July 27, down from over 100,000 in mid-July. Despite the lower activity, DOGE price remains steady above $0.24.

glassnode-studio_doge-number-of-active-addresses
Source: Glassnode

This suggests that fewer users are transacting, but larger holders may be stepping in. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that DOGE is back in a zone that has triggered rallies before. A break above $0.25 could clear the way toward $0.36, where past moves have accelerated.

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Bitcoin Eyes $130K: Breakout, Trade Deal, and M2 Growth Signal Next Leg Up

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Bitcoin (BTC) may be gearing up for its next parabolic move, possibly toward $130,000, if an analyst is correctly reading a multi-pronged surge in technical, macroeconomic, and geopolitical signals.

According to pseudonymous trader Doctor Profit, after months of struggling beneath a critical long-term resistance, the flagship cryptocurrency has finally broken above a trendline dating back to the 2021 all-time high, confirming a bullish breakout that he argues the market has yet to fully price in.

Bullish Breakout and Trade Deal Fuel Market Optimism

In a detailed X post on July 28, Doctor Profit highlighted Bitcoin’s decisive monthly breakout above its multi-year diagonal resistance. The said level rejected bulls four months in a row, between November 2024 and February 2025. July’s clean break and retest on the monthly chart signal the beginning of what he calls “the next leg up,” setting the stage for an advance toward $130,000.

Adding fuel to the rally is the recent trade deal between the United States and the European Union announced by President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on July 27. The agreement includes $750 billion in U.S. energy exports and $600 billion in EU investments into U.S. infrastructure, measures expected to lift U.S. stock markets and, by extension, crypto assets like BTC.

“This is very bullish for the mid and long term as there is no longer fear due to a tariff war between countries, especially and most importantly between the US and Europe.”

The announcement had an immediate impact, with Bitcoin rising from $114,500 to over $119,000, while BNB soared to a new all-time high above $850.

Doctor Profit also noted the quietly increasing M2 money supply, reinforcing the sense of macro bullishness. According to him, despite the Federal Reserve’s ongoing “quantitative tightening,” M2 has expanded by 2.3% year-to-date, with May and June seeing the most aggressive monthly increase at +0.63%.

Historically, every 1% increase in M2 has roughly corresponded to a 30% to 35% rise in BTC. The analyst suggested that if the correlation holds, Bitcoin could rally another 15% to17.5%, which would land it squarely in the $130,000 zone.

Price Analysis and Broader Market Trends

At the time of this writing, BTC was trading at $119,389, marking a modest 0.9% gain in the last 24 hours and 0.7% over the week. The asset’s performance is more solid across longer time frames, gaining 11.3% in 30 days and 75.6% across the past year. However, its short-term moves lag behind Ethereum (ETH) and select altcoins.

Nevertheless, the OG crypto’s fundamental drivers remain intact. ETF inflows continue to absorb more BTC than is being mined, particularly from issuers like BlackRock, acting as long-term vacuum cleaners. And with the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC decision due this Wednesday, where a rate hold is almost certain, Doctor Profit believes the stage is set for continued liquidity expansion.

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AVAX on Fire: Traders Target $140 as Avalanche DeFi Heats Up

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TL;DR

  • Avalanche DeFi TVL rose to $1.5 billion, driven by faster speeds and lower fees following the upgrade.
  • Daily AVAX activity surged, with 519K users and 10M transactions recorded across chains.
  • AVAX is testing a multi-year trendline, with a potential breakout targeting $140 next.

DeFi Activity Rises After Network Upgrade

Avalanche’s DeFi ecosystem has grown sharply over the last quarter. Total value locked (TVL) climbed 37%, reaching $1.5 billion, after the launch of the Octane upgrade, which introduced faster transaction confirmations, lower fees, and a smoother user interface.

AVAX Total value locked (TVL)
Source: Messari

Data shows steady growth in both AVAX-based and USD-based TVL since early 2025. The USD value crossed $2.2 billion in late May, while AVAX-denominated TVL moved past 70 million tokens. These trends reflect higher capital allocation and growing developer activity within the Avalanche ecosystem.

Reports from Messari show that Avalanche’s network usage rose across multiple areas in Q2. Daily transactions increased by almost 170% to an average of 10.1 million. Daily active addresses also averaged over 519,000, up 210%.

Notably, these increases cover activity from Avalanche’s main C-Chain and its Layer 1 subnets. The improvements follow changes introduced by the Octane upgrade, which reduced friction for both users and applications. The numbers point to a growing user base and stronger project engagement.

AVAX Price Builds Momentum Near $27

Avalanche (AVAX) was priced at $27 as of press time. It has gained 9% over the last 24 hours, with a 7-day increase of 4%. Trading volume stands at just under $1 billion.

Meanwhile, the token has been moving within a tight range over recent weeks, with buyers defending key support levels. If the price holds above $27, analysts expect the market to test the $30 mark next. Current trends suggest that on-chain growth is starting to reflect in the token’s performance.

Long-term chart data shows that AVAX is testing a descending trendline that has been in place since late 2021. Price action is currently trading on the line of this resistance area. This structure also includes a rounded bottom pattern from 2022 to 2025.

A move above the trendline could open the door to a stronger price push. Chart analyst Smith sees a potential climb toward $140 if volume steps in. This would represent nearly an eightfold gain from current levels. While the breakout is not confirmed, traders are tracking the setup closely as altseason activity increases.

AVAX price chart
Source: X
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