Cryptocurrency
Are NFT markets in a death spiral or ready for a resurgence?
Nonfungible tokens (NFTs) saw a massive surge in popularity in 2021, accompanied by sky-high prices, but the market has since come crashing back to earth, and it’s unclear whether there will be a resurgence.
NFTs are unique digital tokens recorded on a blockchain to certify ownership and authenticity. They can’t be copied or substituted but can be transferred and sold by their owner.
According to analytics platform NFTGo, the NFT market cap valued in Ether (ETH) is down 40.59% over the past year at the time of writing, with trading volume down 40.81%.
The market cap in U.S. dollars is down 41.16%, and its volume has dropped 66.77%. At the same time, market sentiment is ranked 13 out of 100, with an overall rating of “cold.”
Arno Bauer, senior solution architect at BNB Chain, told Cointelegraph that from a utility perspective, NFT projects are increasingly adding value and that this growth in functionality is where the future of NFTs likely lies.
Bauer said the NFT market is showing “promising signs of innovation and creativity,” which holds great potential for the growth and evolution of the tech.
Related: Crypto lawyer about SEC: ‘Problematic to imply all NFTs are securities’
“Market sentiment, cultural shifts towards digital ownership, and the potential for NFTs to be integrated into various aspects of our lives also contribute to a positive outlook for the future of NFTs,” he said.
“While current market conditions might seem subdued, the ongoing innovation and potential for integration with both digital and physical worlds suggest that NFTs have not had their day and that their continued relevance and growth are highly probable,” Bauer added.
NFTs in the long term
As for long-term use cases, Bauer said NFTs will “likely evolve” over time and become increasingly linked to real-world assets, such as property ownership or unique physical goods.
Currently, NFTs have been most successful in the art world, with some selling for tens of millions of dollars.
Digital artist Pak sold an NFT project titled “The Merge” for $91.8 million on Nifty Gateway in 2021, while Mike Winkelmann, also known as Beeple, sold “Everydays: The First 5000 Days” for $69.3 million via Christie’s auction house the same year.
Blockchain games also use NFTs to represent in-game items such as weapons and armor, and there is speculation the tech will make the jump to mainstream games. Various types of music assets are also being sold as one-of-a-kind NFTs.
Bauer thinks that as more robust technology provides enhanced use cases and ownership security, NFTs will likely become more attractive to mainstream markets.
He speculated that NFTs could link to financial instruments, representing shares in companies or investment funds, and social achievements, where they could symbolize badges of accomplishment in various fields.
“Beyond art, the ability to tokenize unique assets and provide verifiable ownership will create numerous applications across various domains,” Bauer said.
“Collaborations with traditional industries, technological advancements, clear regulatory frameworks and educational efforts can significantly boost NFT utility and adoption.”
“Addressing sustainability concerns could make them more appealing to a broader audience,” he added.
NFTs have the potential to make a comeback
Jason Bailey, co-founder and CEO of NFT tool and self-custody solution ClubNFT, told Cointelegraph he thinks “NFTs will come back and go mainstream” because crypto and NFTs rebound cyclically, just like previous tech crashes.
According to data gathering platform Statista, the NFT market is projected to continue growing in revenue, users and market capitalization.
As of 2023, there are 13.95 million NFT users, but that’s expected to hit 19.31 million users by 2027.
However, Bailey believes NFTs currently have some issues, most of which were amplified by rampant market speculation, that need to be solved before NFTs can go mainstream.
He said NFTs and the ecosystem around them are so complex that almost everyone is still vulnerable to many risks they may not even know about.
“Many of us have been trying to educate and onboard people into the space thoughtfully so they can be safe, but the truth is that NFTs won’t go mainstream until the complexity is replaced with a safe-by-default easy path,” Bailey said.
“For example, the vast majority of people don’t realize that an NFT is almost always at risk in a sense, except for fully on-chain NFTs, which are a truly tiny fraction.”
“The steps needed to protect the art from disappearing, and prevent the NFT from breaking, are complicated, time-consuming and error-prone,” he added.
Related: AI-based tools bring security and transparency to the NFT market
Bailey believes that in the long term, NFTs or similar tech could prove invaluable in validating digital documents such as marriage certificates, diplomas and licenses.
Overall, he thinks NFTs solve too many of the current problems associated with digital ownership — including scarcity, authentication, provenance and provable ownership — to be ignored.
“We need to build infrastructure now, during the bear market, for smoother onboarding and to protect NFT adopters from malicious actors in the next NFT bull market,” he said.
“Once these issues are solved, NFTs will absolutely go mainstream because the train of digital ownership left the station decades ago, and there is no stopping it.”
Meaningful projects could be a game changer for NFTs
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Andy Ku, founder and CEO of digital content Web3 ecosystem Altava Group, said he thinks the previous highs in the NFT market were based on a hype cycle, so it’ll be hard for an individual NFT to reach such lofty heights again.
asked google bard to write me some tweets about NFT market right now…
mf really went for the throat on these… pic.twitter.com/aLjUbwH3gT
— beeple (@beeple) August 22, 2023
According to CoinGecko, many of the top NFT collections have seen significant drops in value over the past year.
At the time of writing, Bored Ape Yacht Club has fallen by 67.1%, CryptoPunks by 33.2%, Mutant Ape Yacht Club by 59.2% and Azuki by 49.3%.
Ku believes that if we can see more meaningful NFT projects on the market offering tangible benefits to more people, then it’s possible to have the combined volume bring the overall market value up.
Related: What’s next for NFTs and Web3 in the age of the creator economy?
“NFTs should offer value and utility beyond just a digital art or PFP. The two areas I particularly believe in are asset-backed NFTs and a membership NFT,” he said.
“NFT’s core value of being an immutable representation of something is a great fit for assets and membership.”
NFTs for subscription, membership-based models and loyalty programs are starting to gain traction, with examples in hospitality venues and gyms already on the market.
“In terms of asset-backed NFTs, master artworks, real estate and precious metals like gold are all good examples of assets in which people believe,” Ku said.
“NFTs would make a great proof-of-ownership for these assets as well as being extremely portable,” he added.
Bitcoin achieved a new historic all-time high price in December. At the same time, analysts believe XRP is well on the way to smashing its own record, eclipsing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana’s gains in December.
In December, XRP tokens retraced 84% of losses from its all-time high price of $3.4 a coin in Jan. 2018 to a multi-year bottom of $0.16 in Mar. 2020. After seven years of turmoil in XRP markets, Ripple Labs’ cross-border blockchain settlement tokens notched $2.17 on Dec. 2.
After that, the asset charted a 30-day bullish falling wedge pattern with declining daily trade volumes. The bullish reversal of this classic technical chart pattern materialized on New Year’s Day. Ripple has already gained 26% since the turn of the year.
Here are six of the key supports for further price gains that XRP markets are counting on moving forward.
1. Musk Is Backing Ripple’s Bid to Cast Off The SEC
In December, the new D.O.G.E. advisor to incoming President Trump tweeted his latest broadside against the SEC. He made a very favorable statement about XRP when asked in October.
Shortly after the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court in New Orleans ruled the SEC broke the law (by endorsing diversity requirements for corporate boards), Musk tweeted:
“The SEC is just another weaponized institution doing political dirty work.”
It was a quote on a repost by pro-cryptocurrency Utah Sen. Mike Lee. The senator said, “The SEC is yet another “independent commission” that cannot be trusted.”
The SEC is just another weaponized institution doing political dirty work https://t.co/5w9ajcS6bf
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 12, 2024
Musk’s post came shortly after a US Fifth Circuit Court ruling against the SEC in another case that bolsters Ripple’s argument that the agency is regulating by enforcement rather than policy.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse jumped on the repost train to second Musk’s description. “What he said,” Garlinghouse added.
What he said https://t.co/sHs1aLkf8Z
— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) December 13, 2024
Earlier in Q4, at an America PAC conference, an audience member asked the tech titan, “Do you envision the XRP Ledger being incorporated into the financial institutions in the future.”
Musk replied, “This is definitely not an endorsement or lack of endorsement for XRP, but I do think crypto, by its very nature, helps with individual freedom.”
2. Trump Back in White House a Big Win for XRP
FOX Business Senior Correspondent Charles Gasparino recently stated that incoming US president Donald Trump could put his thumb on the scale in the SEC lawsuit against Ripple Labs.
He made the comments to Professional Capital Management CEO Anthony Pompliano on the Pomp Podcast. Gasparino said he expects the new Trump Administration to shift the SEC’s approach to Ripple drastically.
He specifically pointed out Mr. Trump’s Paul Atkins nomination for SEC Chair as a sure sign of a more Ripple and XRP-friendly Securities and Exchange Commission for the next four years.
Atkins is the CEO of a global consulting firm with clients in the cryptocurrency industry. Meanwhile, Trump appears apt to purge the SEC of anti-crypto commissioner Caroline Crenshaw.
The SEC’s case against XRP is arguably the most considerable headwind for XRP’s price. It represents the most serious ongoing threat to Ripple and the institutional adoption of XRP.
3. XRP for Oil in The Middle East and North Africa
Looking back on a milestone year for crypto and ahead to 2025, @Ripple remains committed to advancing the digital asset ecosystem across the Middle East and Africa. Here’s what we are looking forward to in 2025.
– UAE’s Crypto Leadership
The UAE is setting the pace for crypto…— Reece Merrick (@reece_merrick) January 2, 2025
Reece Merrick, Ripple managing director for the Middle East and Africa, shared a detailed note on Thursday about the #RemittanceRevolution happening in MENA nations.
He says the oil-rich Persian Gulf’s United Arab Emirates is currently leading cryptocurrency adoption in the Middle East:
“Remittances in MENA are getting a crypto makeover. Stablecoins are cutting costs & speeding up transfers—bringing the Middle East, South Asia, & Africa together like never before. The UAE leads the charge in financial connectivity.”
He predicts banks in the Middle East will “fully embrace blockchain” solutions like XRP in 2025:
“2025 will see MEA’s banks fully embrace blockchain. Look at UAE, KSA, Bahrain, Qatar & Morocco. Faster payments, tokenized assets, and stablecoin utility are rewriting the rules of banking. This is how we diversify & future-proof financial systems.”
The skyrocketing total value locked in real-world asset tokenization (RWA) platforms is a bullish indicator of the value of XRP as a tool for fast, low-fee settlement in international trade. Most crypto analysts agree this is one of the most important metas for blockchain going into 2025.
4. Markets Are Going Crazy for Ripple’s RLUSD
Ripple Labs launched its new stablecoin RLUSD on Dec. 17. That creates more liquidity next to the XRP pool in the blockchain ecosystem, so it’s likely to create more long-term support for XRP’s price in due time.
Stablecoins hold a 1:1 buying power peg to the US dollar or some other free-floating sovereign currency like the yen or euro. So far, the new stablecoin is already available on several crypto exchanges. Traders can use RLUSD on Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, Moonpay, CoinMENA, and Bullish, among others.
The sector was already so enthusiastic about RLUSD ahead of its launch that Ripple CTO David Schwarz had to warn against FOMO before the coins went to market. Interestingly, blockchain had minted most of the new stablecoins on Ethereum—some $52 million.
Ripple senior vice president of stablecoins Jack McDonald told CNBC the growth XRP has seen prior to RLUSD’s launch inspired the new Ripple brand stablecoin: “Part of the impetus for us wanting to launch a stablecoin is the growth we’ve seen specifically in cross-border payments.”
“As we’ve been using stablecoins more and more in our flows, that really piqued our interest that we should have our own native stablecoin that can be more cost effective and more operationally efficient to use,” McDonald added.
Bottom Line for Investors
Over the New Year holiday, XRP made a bullish reversal. Ripple broke out of a descending wedge pattern with declining volume.
Interestingly, the rally took markedly far less daily trade volume to retrace 68% of its decline from XRP’s record-high price on Dec. 2.
That indicates this market is far from the euphoria stage of this rally, with plenty of room left to the upside.
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Bitcoin calmed over the weekend after the recent roller coasters and its price now stands at just over $98,000.
Most altcoins are also quite sluggish today, but the weekly scale shows massive recoveries from the likes of ADA, DOGE, AVAX, and others.
BTC at $98K
The business week started on the wrong foot for BTC. The asset struggled to remain above $94,000 during the previous weekend but lost that resistance and slumped hard on Monday. As reported at the time, the cryptocurrency dumped by roughly three grand and fell to a monthly low of $91,300.
Many started to anticipate that the correction will endure and drive BTC to under $90,000, but the bulls intercepted the move and didn’t allow another such retracement. Just the opposite, bitcoin started to regain value and go through substantial fluctuations but overall managed to get out of its dire situation.
It spiked to $99,000 on Friday but was stopped there and pushed south to $98,000. It has remained in a relatively tight range over the weekend and now stands just inches above $98,000 after gaining 3.3% on a weekly scale.
Its market capitalization has risen to almost $1.950 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts is down by over 1% in a week to 53.1%.
Alts in Weekly Recovery
Most altcoins are well in the green on a weekly scale. Ethereum has regained more than 6% of value and sits above $3,600. Ripple’s native token is around $2.4 after a 9% weekly surge.
The biggest gainers from the larger-cap altcoins come from Cardano and Dogecoin. Both assets are up by double digits, with ADA leading the way following a 22% surge.
Other notable gainers include SUI, which registered a new all-time high, XLM, and AVAX. In contrast, TON and BNB are slightly in the red on a weekly scale.
The total crypto market cap has jumped to $3.660 trillion on CG after bottoming at under $3.4 trillion earlier this week.
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.
Bitcoin’s price recovered from the most substantial declines earlier this week that drove it to a monthly low but still struggles to return to six-digit territory.
With the weekly close just hours away, here are the potential risks the cryptocurrency faces if it remains under this coveted level.
BTC to Close Below $100K?
The last couple of weeks of 2024 were quite painful for BTC as its price dumped from its latest all-time high registered on December 17 of over $108,000 to $91,300 in days. The latter came on December 30 and marked the asset’s lowest price point in over a month.
However, bitcoin reacted well to this correction and now sits above $98,000. This represents a 7.5% increase since that low. On a weekly scale, BTC is up by 3.5% compared to the valuation last Sunday.
Perhaps the biggest factor holding bitcoin below $100,000 now is the ‘stiff supply wall’ that appears in its current levels. This means that a lot of investors have accumulated their BTC holdings at prices between $98,000 and $100,000, which essentially turns these levels into critical resistance lines, according to Ali Martinez.
#Bitcoin $BTC faces a stiff supply wall between $98,000 and $100,000 that is currently acting as resistance! pic.twitter.com/GrDNNATLgT
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 4, 2025
On the plus side, the same analyst outlined a highly bullish development for BTC, which occurred at the end of 2024. More than 48,000 BTC (valued at $4.7 billion at today’s prices) were withdrawn from exchanges, thus reducing the immediate sell pressure.
Over 48,000 #Bitcoin $BTC have been pulled from exchanges in the past week, valued at over $4.5 billion! pic.twitter.com/V1agc0EtCe
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 3, 2025
Where to Next?
Martinez believes BTC might retest the 50-day moving average, which is currently at just under $97,000. Although bitcoin is currently above that level, it needs to close there, which will be “essential to signal the end of the correction and confirm bullish momentum.”
#Bitcoin $BTC remains at a critical point. This might just be a retest of the 50-day MA before a potential move lower. A sustained close above the 50-day MA is essential to signal the end of the correction and confirm bullish momentum. pic.twitter.com/ppfEjfoJkc
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 3, 2025
The analyst told his over 100,000 followers on X that he remains ‘cautiously bullish’ because the cryptocurrency could be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern that might lead to an even more violent decline to $78,000. In his latest post, Martinez highlighted that BTC has to close above $100,000 to invalidate this bearish setup, which is currently not the case.
I’m cautiously bullish because for all we know, #Bitcoin $BTC could be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern that anticipates a correction to at least $78,000. This is why a strong close above $100,000 is crucial to invalidate this bearish setup. pic.twitter.com/2O1y3sEWgq
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 4, 2025
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