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Arthur Hayes: China Interest Rate ‘Bazooka’ Will Goose Bitcoin Prices

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At its fourth quarter meeting on Dec. 27, the People’s Bank of China committee (POBC) proposed a more dovish (low interest rate) policy going forward.

At the same time, the US Fed has different plans.

China Announces Interest Rate Cut

Financial analysts expect the bank to make adjustments to the target funds rate so that credit demand aligns better with monetary policy, according to Reuters. As a result, crypto analysts expect a big wave of monetary support for Bitcoin prices in the Middle Kingdom’s yuan printing press.

China’s central bank issued a statement on Friday announcing a cut to the banks’ reserve requirement ratio and interest rates at “a proper time.” The central bank says the PBOC is likely to further slash China’s interest rates from the current target of 1.5% sometime soon in 2025.

The PBOC last cut rates to 1.5% from 1.7% in September, the same month as the Federal Reserve pivoted to a rate-cutting regime. Moreover, China’s 10-year and 30-year treasury yields both hit record lows on Friday over expectations of fresh monetary easing.

Arthur Hayes Predicts ‘Glorious’ Bitcoin Rally

The interest rate cut at China’s central bank will help to counter a deflationary yuan that threatens to spiral into debt-crippling loan revaluation. But, it will also push up the prices of the basket of financial goods, especially stocks and cryptocurrencies.

South Africa cut its main overnight money market rate by 0.25% to 7.75% in November.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted the next rate cut in Beijing will combine with the Fed’s low rate regime and cause a “glorious” rally for Bitcoin and other crypto assets in 2025.

Hayes is an influential macro strategic analyst for the price levels of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Immediately after the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a rate cut in September, Bitcoin’s price rocketed above the $60,000 level. Since then, the little orange coin has reached record high levels of $100,000.

Seven months ago in May, Hayes wrote on his Medium blog that when China brings out the monetary “bazooka,” buying a Wall Street Bitcoin ETF will be a no-brainer for regulated investors in the US.

“If my theory becomes reality, it is trivial for any institutional investor to buy one of the US-listed Bitcoin ETFs,” Hayes wrote. “Bitcoin is the best-performing asset in the face of global fiat debasement, and they know it.”

In addition to a rising Coinbase premium index, ETF flows for Bitcoin are two strong indicators that mainstream investors are flocking back to Bitcoin in January.

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Ripple (XRP) News Today July 30th

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The last few weeks have been quite turbulent for XRP and the company behind it. In this article, we will check the latest updates involving the two and analyze the token’s price dynamics.

Has the Ripple/SEC Battle Concluded?

The major developments in the legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), more specifically, the company’s court wins, have left some with the expectation that the tussle is over.

Just recently, the American lawyer Bill Morgan said the regulator has not withdrawn its appeal yet. He emphasized that the Commission faces no formal deadline to do so, though it is required to submit a status update to the appeal court by August 15.

The legal contest refers to a court decision in 2023. Back then, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that Ripple’s sales of XRP tokens on secondary markets are not securities. The SEC appealed the ruling, while the company filed a cross-appeal, which was later withdrawn.

Earlier this year, the two parties jointly requested that the appeals be paused to allow time for a potential settlement. The court respected their wish but required the regulator to file a status report by mid-August. Many believe that if the SEC agrees to withdraw its appeal, it could mark the final resolution of the case.

To the uninitiated, it all started in December 2020 when the Commission filed a lawsuit against Ripple, accusing it of conducting an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP tokens. Initially, it sought a whopping fine of $2 billion, while years later, Judge Torres ruled a penalty of $125 million. Moreover, the SEC and Ripple shook hands on an even smaller sum of $50 million.

RLUSD Keeps Progressing

One trending asset within Ripple’s ecosystem is the USD-pegged stablecoin, RLUSD. The product, which officially debuted in December of last year, recently saw its market capitalization soar past $500 million and caught the eye of some major financial players.

As CryptoPotato reported, the asset was recognized by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) as a crypto token within the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC), while the oldest US bank, BNY Mellon, agreed to serve as a custodian for RLUSD.

Meanwhile, the stablecoin’s market cap continued to grow in the following weeks and currently stands at approximately $577.6 million. 

Spot XRP ETF Incoming?

Several XRP exchange-traded funds have popped up in the United States over the past several months. However, all of them are futures-based, and you can check the details here.

The XRP army has been eagerly awaiting the launch of a spot XRP ETF, which is expected to have a more significant impact on the price of the underlying token.

Some of the well-known firms willing to launch such a product include Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, and more. According to Polymarket, the approval odds before the end of the year stand at around 87%. 

XRP ETF Chances
XRP ETF Chances, Source: Polymarket

XRP Price Outlook

Ripple’s native token exploded to a new all-time high of $3.65 in mid-July, but since then, it has been on a downtrend, currently trading at around $3.08 (per CoinGecko’s data). 

However, some important factors suggest this could be a temporary correction, followed by another rally. Large investors, for instance, have acquired 60 million XRP tokens in the last 24 hours. This shows strong confidence in the asset and could encourage other smaller players to jump on the bandwagon, too. 

The amount of tokens stored on exchanges has been declining lately, suggesting that holders might have moved their funds into cold storage. This, in turn, reduces the immediate selling pressure. 

Last but not least, the number of XRP wallets keeps growing, hinting at solid user engagement and rising interest in the network. The figure reached a peak of 7.2 million on July 21 and is currently inching towards 7.3 million.

XRP Addresses
XRP Addresses, Source: CryptoQuant
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Solana (SOL) Plunges by 10% Weekly, But This Market Signal Says ‘Buy the Dip’

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TL;DR

  • Analysts point to certain indicators that suggest SOL could be poised for a rally in the near future. Some of the biggest optimists believe the price could soar to a new all-time high of $400.
  • SOL’s RSI hovers just above 30, signaling oversold conditions. Combined with increased token withdrawals from crypto exchanges, this could reduce sell pressure and hint at a possible short-term recovery.

Buying Opportunity?

Solana’s SOL has declined by over 10% in the past week, currently valued at around $177 (according to CoinGecko’s data). However, the X user, Ali Martinez, estimated that the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal.

The analyst isn’t the only one with a bullish stance following the price drop. One X user claimed SOL “is setting the pace,” predicting a pump to as high as $400. 

“Ignore the noise. This isn’t hype, it’s a shift in momentum. Smart money isn’t chasing later – it’s positioning now. Solana season is real,” they added. 

BitBull thinks SOL’s current price performance resembles that of 2023, which was followed by a major breakout. The analyst argued that the activity in the Solana network is still strong, while institutional inflows “are coming.”

“All it needs now is a weekly close above $230, and SOL parabolic run will start,” the X user suggested.

AlejandroBTC stands in the opposite corner, claiming there’s no real momentum, while exit liquidity is “getting thinner by the day.” The analyst forecasted that SOL’s price could continue to plunge, warning investors that the altcoins are not in a bull market. 

Observing Other Metrics

Over the past several months, the shift of SOL tokens from crypto exchanges toward self-custody methods has been more than evident. This results in reduced immediate selling pressure.

SOL Exchange Netflow
SOL Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass

Solana’s Relative Strength Index is the next technical analysis tool we will touch upon. It tracks the speed and magnitude of recent price changes and helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions. The metric varies from 0 to 100, and ratios around or below 30 suggest SOL could be headed for a rebound, while anything above 70 is considered bearish territory. Currently, the RSI stands at just over 30. 

SOL RSI
SOL RSI, Source: CryptoWaves
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Ethereum ETF Inflows Soar in July, Outpacing Last 11 Months Combined

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Ethereum’s 10th anniversary is proving to be more than symbolic. As the network celebrates a decade since mining its genesis block on July 30, data shows a record-breaking surge in institutional demand.

Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $5.41 billion in net inflows in July alone, surpassing the combined capital entries of the previous 11 months, which stood at $4.21 billion as of June 2025.

Institutional Investment Pushes ETH Into a New Phase

Data from SoSoValue shows that ETH ETFs have had $9.62 billion in cumulative fund deposits since their launch in July 2024. However, the inflows haven’t been consistent.

After a rocky start, with $483 million in outflows in their first month, the ETFs saw steady growth. They hit 10 figures for the first time in November 2024, when $1.05 billion came into the funds, followed by an even more impressive $2.08 billion the following month.

The first quarter of 2025 was more muted. January and February saw a combined $161.23 million in new capital before a poor showing in March led to more than $403 million flowing out of the ETFs.

Since then, the products have been on a tear, with investment activity growing exponentially month after month, to finally hit $5.41 billion in July. The explosion suggests a shift from institutional caution to aggressive accumulation, with ETH emerging as the clear beneficiary of this sentiment shift.

Data from SoSoValue shows that BlackRock’s ETHA alone now holds $11.39 billion in assets, while Grayscale’s ETHE remains in recovery after $4.31 billion in cumulative withdrawals. Together, these movements have pushed Ethereum ETF assets to $21.61 billion, which is about 4.75% of ETH’s market cap.

Price Momentum Builds as ETH Nears $4K

The price of ETH has also seen a fair amount of growth recently. At the time of writing, it was trading at $3,786, up 3.1% over the past week and 19.6% in the last fortnight despite a 2.4% dip in the previous 24 hours amid profit-taking.

It has also climbed 53.3% across 30 days, moving from around $2,470 to approach the $3,900 range, even briefly touching $3,933 before retracing.

QCP Capital has cautioned that derivatives positioning and overheated funding rates may create near-term resistance around $4,000, yet the structural tailwinds from ETF demand remain intact. If these fund flows persist, Ethereum could not only challenge its November 2021 all-time high of $4,878 but also cement itself as the centerpiece of a potential altcoin-led market cycle.

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