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Bears Seem in Control, Is DOT About to Drop Toward $6.5? (Polkadot Price Analysis)

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A constant consolidation near the substantial resistance region of $7.4 indicates an ongoing battle between Polkadot buyers and sellers.

Nevertheless, the market is in a critical spot, with the upcoming price action shedding light on DOT’s future prospects.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

A detailed examination of Polkadot’s daily chart reveals an uncertain market state, as the price has been hovering around a crucial resistance marked by the $7.4 level and the significant 100-day moving average. Additionally, the RSI indicator has been consolidating near the 50 threshold, signifying a balance between buyers and sellers in the market.

Currently, the market is in a decisive position, with participants expecting a short-term rejection towards the $6.5 threshold. However, an unexpected surge above this critical resistance region could trigger a massive short-squeeze, increasing bullish momentum.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a prolonged, slight ascent, with the price forming an ascending wedge pattern. This well-known pattern, following a steep decline, typically indicates a potential continuation of the initial bearish trend if breached from its lower boundary.

Currently, DOT is struggling with substantial resistance, bounded by the 0.5 ($7.4) and 0.618 ($7.6) Fibonacci retracement levels, failing to surpass them. Given the muted price action and lack of bullish momentum, Polkadot is expected to experience a pullback, targeting the pattern’s lower boundary.

Sentiment Analysis

By Shayan

When the market is in a state of uncertainty and lacks clear direction, analyzing the sentiment in the perpetual market can provide insights into Polkadot’s potential future trajectory. This chart illustrates the Long/Short Accounts Ratio alongside DOT’s price.

In general, the total value of long and short positions in the market is balanced. When this value is equal, but the number of holders differs, it indicates that the side with more holders has a smaller average position value, mainly composed of retail investors, while the other side is dominated by institutional investors and large traders.

The Long/Short Accounts Ratio has been decreasing recently, reaching a value of 3. This means that the number of individuals holding long positions is three times higher than those with short positions, while the total position value remains equal on both sides. This suggests that the long side is primarily made up of retail traders with smaller average position sizes, whereas the short side likely comprises institutional investors with larger average positions.

On the other hand, the decline in the metric indicates a slight increase in the average position size of institutional investors on the short side. If this trend continues, it could signal growing institutional interest, potentially leading to heightened selling pressure for Polkadot.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

Cryptocurrency

BTC Tanks to $61K as Long-Awaited Mt. Gox Repayments to Begin in July

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On June 24, the Mt. Gox rehabilitation trustee issued a letter regarding repayments to creditors commencing at the beginning of July 2024.

“The Rehabilitation Trustee has been preparing to make repayments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash under the Rehabilitation Plan,” it stated.

The move comes after extensive preparations to ensure safe and compliant repayments, it added.

Mt. Gox Repayments

Additionally, the process involved technical safeguards, adherence to various countries’ financial regulations, and discussions with cryptocurrency exchanges, according to the letter.

Repayments will be made through trading platforms, starting with those that have completed the necessary information exchange and confirmation process with the Trustee. Creditors were advised to wait patiently as the repayments in BTC and BCH were processed.

Mt. Gox became insolvent after a hack that led to the theft of 850,000 BTC, valued at $460 million at the time of the incident in 2014.

Some of the larger creditors of the bankrupt crypto exchange chose a payment option that would allow them to receive a lump sum of their recovery payout in BTC rather than fiat.

Additionally, on-chain analysts identified several large BTC movements associated with Mt. Gox in late May. They cautioned that this could put selling pressure on Bitcoin markets.

This latest news has already sparked concern over large amounts of Bitcoin entering markets that have already turned bearish.

Bitcoin pioneer Kyle Chassé echoed the concern, exclaiming, “F*cking $9 billion worth of Bitcoin repayments.”

Analyst Don Alt advised caution when trading with further losses expected.

“Gonna be interesting to see how price reacts to the Mt. Gox announcement. Bulls need to show significant strength to reverse this slow bleed. If they can’t, the bottom of the range may just fall out.”

Impact on BTC

In addition to this sell-side pressure, Bitcoin miners have been offloading the asset. Miners sold over 30,000 BTC worth around $2 billion in June, “the highest amount this year, dropping reserves to a 14-year low,” said analyst ‘Carl B Menger.’

“BTC is now approaching the critical level where many will give up this cycle,” said analyst ‘Titan of Crypto’ in a post on X on June 24.

Bitcoin prices dumped to $61,000 on the news, accelerating losses over the past 24 hours, which are now 4.6%.

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Ethereum Price Analysis: Is $3K Imminent for ETH Following 5% Daily Dump

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The Ethereum price has been dropping since getting rejected from the $4,000 resistance level. In the past 24 hours, the selling intensified and the bears are seemingly targeting the important resistance level at $3,000.

Technical Analysis

By TradingRage

The Daily Chart

The daily chart shows that the price has dropped below the $3,600 level and is rapidly approaching the $3,000 support zone. The 200-day moving average is also around the $3,000 mark, further boosting the importance of this level.

The Relative Strength Index has dropped below 50%, indicating that the momentum has shifted bearish. If the $3,000 level breaks down, things can get ugly for ETH, as a further drop toward $2,800 and even the $2,200 zone could be expected.

eth_price_chart_2406241
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, the price has been making lower highs and lows since the rejection from the $4,000 resistance level.

At the moment, the cryptocurrency is approaching a long-term bullish trendline. A break below it would probably result in a bearish phase in the coming weeks.

Yet, the RSI has dropped below %30, making ETH oversold on the 4-hour chart. Therefore, a rebound from the trendline or the $3,000 level is still possible.

eth_price_chart_2406242
Source: TradingView

Sentiment Analysis

By TradingRage

Funding Rates

While the Ethereum price has been trending down after failing to break above the $4,000 level and rally toward its all-time high, the futures market sentiment is weakening.

This chart presents the Ethereum funding rate metric. It measures whether the buyers or the sellers are more aggressively executing their orders. Positive funding rates indicate bullish sentiment, while negative ones are associated with bearish sentiment.

Currently, the funding rates are declining as the price is trending down. While this shows the sentiment is gradually shifting, it might not be bad for the price. This is because of the probability of a long liquidation cascade, or the magnitude of a possible one, as the futures market is cooling down.

eth_funding_rate_chart_2404241
Source: CryptoQuant
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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BTC Price Analysis: Here’s the First Critical Support if Bitcoin Drops Below $60K

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Bitcoin’s price has dropped rapidly over the last few days after failing to keep above the $70K level. The market is currently approaching a fundamental level.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Technicals

By TradingRage

The Daily Chart

As the daily timeframe demonstrates, the BTC price has been trending downward since the beginning of June following a rejection from the $72K zone. The price is approaching the pivotal $60K support level.

With the 200-day moving average around the $58K mark, a break below $60K could lead to a retest of the moving average. Overall, the market’s mid-term fate relies on the price’s reaction to these support elements.

btc_price_chart_2406241
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, the large falling wedge pattern has finally been broken to the downside, and the price is aggressively approaching the $60K support zone. The Relative Strength Index has also declined rapidly and is showing values below 30% at the moment.

Therefore, BTC is currently oversold on the 4-hour timeframe, and a short-term rebound or consolidation at the $60K level is probable.

Yet, if the market breaks lower, the $58K support zone would be the next potential target.

btc_price_chart_2406242
Source: TradingView

On-Chain Analysis

By TradingRage

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR

While Bitcoin’s price has decreased recently, many market participants are seeing their unrealized profits shrink. Meanwhile, some holders have realized their profits and exited the market before going into a loss.

This chart presents the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR, demonstrating the profit and loss ratio. Values above one indicate that investors are selling at a profit, while values below one point to losses.

The STH SOPR is trending down, as is the BTC price. The short-term holders are on the verge of realizing losses, which would happen if the market drops below $60K.

Yet, this also occurs at the lows during a bull market. So, if we consider the bull market not over yet, the low could be very close.

btc_short_term_sopr_chart_2406241
Source: CryptoQuant
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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