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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Will Never Drop Below $40K Again? PlanB’s Analysis

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With almost all losses from the post-ETF-approval apocalypse already erased and the upcoming halving, which tends to serve as a catalyst for future price increases, the crypto community continues to speculate how high Bitcoin can go this year.

PlanB, the popular analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, believes the asset will not go below $40,000 due to its realized price.

Never Again Below $40K?

The primary cryptocurrency has already gone through a real rollercoaster since the start of the year, induced by the ETF approvals in the States. As many speculated, the launch of these products indeed became a sell-the-news event, with BTC’s price falling by ten grand in a few weeks after they reached the US markets.

Nevertheless, the asset managed to recover approximately all losses and earlier today pumped to nearly $45,000. According to PlanB, this retracement to sub-$40,000 levels was somewhat unexpected and might not happen again.

This is because of Bitcoin’s realized prices on different scales. The popular analyst indicated that the overall BTC realized price is up from last month and is currently at $23,000.

The 2-year realized price is at $32,000 and the 5-month is at $40,000. As such, BTC’s current market price of almost $45,000 means the asset is above all of those realized prices, which PlanB categorized as a “very bullish sign.” He also speculated that Bitcoin’s market price might never go below $40,000 again.

Major Bitcoin Price Predictions

With the ETF approvals already a fact and the fourth halving scheduled to take place within two months, the community is focused on giving their predictions about BTC’s price movements in the next year or so.

A recent study by Bitget forecasted a price tag of $150,000 for the asset in the near future, which would mean more than double its previous ATH of $69,000. Interestingly, the author of the Rich Dad Poor Dad best-seller – Robert Kiyosaki – had a similar price prediction.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee also sees BTC going somewhere between $100,000 and $150,000 this year but also shooting up to $500,000 by the end of the decade.

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Cryptocurrency

Saylor’s Strategy Bought Another 4,225 BTC Before Bitcoin’s Price Explosion: Details

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Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-oriented brainchild has made another massive purchase, accumulating 4,225 BTC for $472.5 million.

Due to the cryptocurrency’s substantial price expansion in the past few years, Strategy now sits at a mindblowing unrealized profit of roughly $30 billion.

This is because the company has spent $42.87 billion to acquire its BTC stash of 601,550 bitcoins bought at an average price of $71,268 per unit. Given BTC’s price as of press time ($121,500), this puts Strategy’s fortune at over $73 billion.

Saylor hinted about this purchase yesterday, indicating that some weeks, “you don’t just HODL.” Recall that the company didn’t announce a new acquisition last week, which was somewhat surprising given its history since the US elections in November last year.

Strategy’s former CEO has also been particularly vocal on X about different BTC purchases from other companies. In the past few days alone, he has reposted the accumulations completed by the likes of Metaplanet, K33, DigitalX Ltd., Sequans, and the Blockchain Group.

The average price of Strategy’s latest purchase means that it was most likely completed in the middle of the previous week when BTC challenged $112,000. The asset has traded well beyond that level ever since Thursday.

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Metaplanet Snaps Up 797 More BTC in Aggressive Bitcoin Gold Rush

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Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has expanded its Bitcoin holdings with the purchase of 797 BTC, after spending approximately 13.8 billion yen, which is worth around $93 million.

The company acquired Bitcoin at an average price of around $117,000 per unit.

Aiming for “Escape Velocity”

Following the latest acquisition, Metaplanet currently holds 16,352 BTC, equivalent to approximately $1.64 billion. It maintains its position as the world’s fifth-largest publicly traded corporate BTC holder, according to data shared by BitcoinTreasuries. The accumulation now comes just a week after the Tokyo-listed company purchased 2,205 BTC.

The firm, which shifted from hotel operations to Bitcoin treasury management last year, has been accelerating its accumulation strategy amid rising institutional interest in crypto assets. Metaplanet has set an ambitious target to control over 210,000 BTC by 2027, which is around 1% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Metaplanet had previously revealed its plans to leverage its growing Bitcoin reserves to acquire cash-generating businesses, even potentially including a digital bank in Japan.

Last week, Gerovich told the Financial Times that the company is racing to accumulate as much BTC as possible, while describing it as a “Bitcoin gold rush” to reach “escape velocity” and maintain a lead over competitors. The exec also said that he would never sell the crypto asset.

“We think of it as a Bitcoin gold rush. We need to accumulate as much Bitcoin as we can to get to a point where we have reached escape velocity, and it just makes it very difficult for others to catch up.”

Metaplanet’s Ambitious Bitcoin Plan

In its next phase, Metaplanet aims to use the crypto asset as collateral to access financing, similar to how securities or government bonds are used. The goal will be to deploy these funds to buy profitable businesses aligned with its strategy. While crypto-backed lending remains rare in traditional banking, experiments like Standard Chartered’s pilot with OKX suggest growing institutional interest.

Gerovich ruled out issuing convertible debt to fund growth, preferring options like preferred shares to avoid repayment tied to volatile share prices. The firm said that it envisions digital banking services as a future area of expansion, and aims to deliver superior retail banking options in Japan using its BTC-backed leverage.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Nearing Exhaustion or Gearing Up for $130K Next?

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Bitcoin has officially entered price discovery once again, trading just below $122,000 at the time of writing. After months of consolidation and multiple failed breakout attempts, the bulls have finally regained full control.

The breakout above the previous all-time high around $112,000 was followed by explosive momentum, and investors are wondering how much further BTC will run.

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

The daily chart shows that the asset is still respecting the long-term ascending channel, as it rebounded from its lower boundary and is currently rallying toward the mid-line. The price decisively closed above the $112,000 previous all-time high, a level that acted as a distribution zone for over a month. Following this breakout, BTC printed several bullish continuation candles, pushing all the way up to $122,000.

Yet, a retracement into the $114K–$117K zone is probable to cool the market down. This pullback would not invalidate the bullish structure but instead offer a healthier continuation setup. As long as the price holds above the $114K breakout level, the medium-term structure remains strongly bullish.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4H chart shows a clean breakout from the recent range and a near-vertical price expansion, confirming the daily momentum. After breaking above the descending channel, Bitcoin formed a strong impulsive leg. As a result, the RSI is now extremely elevated at 78+, hinting at potential short-term exhaustion.

The 4H chart also highlights the newly formed Fair Value Gaps stacked below the price, which could get revisited in the coming sessions or days. These FVGs can both attract the price and act as potential support. As long as BTC remains above the 114K block, short dips into this region would be considered bullish retests.

Moreover, if the price begins to range around the 121K–122K area, it would allow RSI to cool off and provide fresh momentum for the next breakout, without experiencing much correction.

Sentiment Analysis

Bitcoin Funding Rates

Funding rates have started to spike again, reflecting the surge in long-side leverage after the breakout. This sharp uptick in funding confirms that traders are aggressively chasing the move. While elevated funding is expected during trend continuations, it also introduces risk: the higher the leverage imbalance, the more vulnerable the market becomes to a flush.

Historically, when funding remains excessively positive while prices stall or consolidate, it often leads to a liquidation-driven pullback. So far, we haven’t seen aggressive spikes like those in Q1 2024, but it’s something to monitor closely.

If the asset fails to push higher while funding stays elevated, a quick shakeout into the 114K zone is possible. Until then, the sentiment remains bullish but slightly overheated, which aligns with current RSI readings and market structure.

 

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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