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Bitcoin (BTC) tests $28,000, but onchain metrics urge caution

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Bitcoin tests $28,000

Over the past week, bitcoin has strengthened by about 30%. However, onchain indicators warn that despite this brisk rally, BTC could retreat to the $24,500 area.

According to analytics platform MacroMicro, the average cost of mining bitcoin accelerated last month.

Over the past 30 days through March 20, the cost of mining peaked at $33,000 per block, while the currency was only able to appreciate to $28,500. This divergence means that despite bitcoin’s rise, miners’ losses have only been piling up over the past month.

A nice development was the day of March 18, when the value of BTC overtook the cost of mining by about $3,000. However, all of this surplus will soon evaporate when new miners come to the market in the near future, rushing to take advantage of the coin’s appreciation.

In addition, the current rise in bitcoin may encourage miners to sell some of their reserves to compensate for earlier losses. Considering that miners’ reserves account for about 10% of the total amount of BTC in circulation right now, such bearish pressure from node operators in the bitcoin network could have a tangible impact on the cryptocurrency’s exchange rate.

Coin inflows to exchanges

Another potentially troubling sign could be the recently increased net inflow of bitcoins to trading platforms. This is signaled by data from the leading blockchain analytics resource, Glassnode.

Over the past seven days, the inflow of BTC deposits to exchanges has significantly exceeded the outflow of coins from trading platforms. During this period, the number of bitcoins stored on exchange addresses has consistently increased from 3,895 BTC as of March 13 to 36,700+ BTC as of March 19.

Typically, prolonged net inflows of bitcoins to exchanges are a sign that hodlers are preparing more intensely for short-term trading activity or convenient profit-taking opportunities.

If these assumptions are confirmed, such sales could trigger a pullback in the BTC exchange rate in the coming weeks.

BTC forecast: possible dive below $25,000

According to IntoTheBlock’s In the Money/Out of the Money (IOMAP) statistics, a likely target for bitcoin may be the $24,500 area.

As a reminder, this metric tracks addresses that approach the breakeven level. Historically, hodlers tend to sell when the BTC exchange rate reaches the average price. As of March 20, more than 72% of bitcoin hodlers were in the profit zone. This could signal the potential for massive profit-taking.

If bitcoin enters a bearish trend, the first stop will be the $27,000 area, where 307,000 addresses that bought 364,000 coins can offer decent support for the coin. If this barrier does not hold, a sharp drop in price to $24,500 is possible. There are about 1 million addresses who bought about 360 thousand coins.

This pessimistic forecast will be neutralized if the price breaks above $29,500, where 345 thousand addresses, which earlier bought 130 thousand coins, are concentrated. This breakthrough may provoke a rally to $32,000. In this area, there is a cluster of 237 thousand addresses that may want to sell some of the 74 thousand BTC that belong to them.

We previously reported that Hong Kong allocated another $50 million to the crypto industry.

Cryptocurrency

Who is Selling Their BTC at These Prices? Glassnode Reveals Bitcoin Profit Takers

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About a month ago, market analysts noted that profit-taking on the Bitcoin network was modest. However, that has changed.

The on-chain insights provider Glassnode has revealed that profit-taking on the leading digital network is ramping up again. This comes as Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a consolidation phase following weeks of upward movement.

BTC Holders Take Profits

According to Glassnode’s tweet, bitcoin’s realized profits hit $2.46 billion on June 30, while the network’s seven-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) spiked to $1.52 billion.

The SMA, which identifies trends by averaging prices over a specific period, is currently above its year-to-date (YTD) average of $1.14 billion. However, the metric is still below its November-December 2024 peak of approximately $4.5 billion.

The spike in Bitcoin’s seven-day SMA indicates that coin distribution on the network is on the rise. Mid-to-long-term BTC holders have been leading this profit-taking spree; Glassnode said investors aged three to five years have realized at least $849 million in profits. This cohort of market participants is followed by those aged seven to ten years, with $485 million in profits, and investors aged one to two years with $445 million.

Short-term BTC holders, those holding for under one year, have been cashing out the least gains, at less than $6 million.

Interestingly, older BTC holders have been leading the profit-taking for this cycle. CryptoPotato reported a rise in spending by this cohort in late May, which drove the aggregate volume for the one- to five-year cohorts to $4 billion, its highest level since February. While older investors take the lead, the bulk of the volume is coming from this particular group of Bitcoin holders.

Whales Are Redistributing Too

Glassnode’s latest report is further substantiated by an analysis from the institutional decentralized finance (DeFi) analytics platform, Sentora (previously known as IntoTheBlock).

The firm disclosed that wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC have been steadily reducing their balances. This indicates that although institutional money is flowing into Bitcoin, whales are still offloading their holdings.

It is worth mentioning that Sentora sees the redistribution by whales as a sign of a maturing market rather than weakness. Older whale coins being dispersed could become a dynamic that would strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Meanwhile, BTC was still consolidating at the time of writing, hovering under $110,000 – a level, which it has remained confined to in the last few weeks.

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Plunges to $105K and Recovers, Altcoins Volatile: Market Watch

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The past 24 hours saw enhanced volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin managed to come on top, but the majority of altcoins are feeling the pressure.

Total liquidaitons across the entire sector also increased considerably, approaching the $260 million mark.

Bitcoin Price Plunges to $105K but Recovers

Starting with Bitcoin, the past 24 hours saw it tumble toward a local daily low at around $105,145, but as you can see on the chart below, the cryptocurrency managed to pull off a V-shaped recover.

As a result, it is currently trading at $107,720 and is up by almost 1% on the day.

This comes amid important economic developments in the US where Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” passed Senate and moves on to the next step of the approval process. If accepted, many speculate that it could have a positive effect on the cryptocurrency markets because it would alleviate tax pressure on retail investors, potentially freeing up capital for riskier investments.

BTCUSD_2025-07-02_13-11-37
Source: TradingView

Altcoins Feel te Pressure

While BTC managed to pull ahead following the increase in market volatility, the same is not true for many altcoins. The situation is mixed, but many altcoins dropped by more than 3% during the day, which is indicative of the current dynamices where Bitcoin is clearly dominant.

The best performer for today is PENGU – the native cryptocurrency of the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem, up by 6.3%. On the other side of the coin, we have Algorand’s ALGO, which is down 6.5%.

Coinglass also shows a 30% increase in liquidated positions across the derivatives markets, currently totaling around $260 million.

Screenshot 2025-07-02 at 13.14.59
Source: Quantify Crypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

No. 1 DeFi Protocol on Aptos, Echo, Launches Token Generation Event

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[PRESS RELEASE – Singapore, Singapore, July 2nd, 2025]

A participant in Aptos Foundation’s LFM program, Echo’s TGE further cements its role in Bitcoin DeFi on Aptos

Echo Protocol, the first Bitcoin liquid restaking and yield layer on MoveVM and the largest protocol on Aptos by total value locked (TVL), has launched its Token Generation Event (TGE).

Echo’s TGE follows a period of record-breaking growth and community engagement, underpinned by participation in Aptos Foundation’s LFM program—a premier initiative that provides hands-on guidance to Aptos-native projects preparing for major product and token launches.

Driving the BTCfi Momentum on Aptos

With over $285 million in aBTC minted and Echo securing 65% of all bridged BTC assets on Aptos, the protocol has emerged as a key player in the growth of BTCfi (Bitcoin DeFi) on Aptos. Echo enables users to unlock yield opportunities on their Bitcoin holdings via aBTC—a cross-chain liquid Bitcoin token, backed 1:1 by BTC—while powering liquidity and collateral mobility across Aptos-native DeFi protocols.

Echo recently surpassed an all-time high of $878 million in TVL, fueled by incentive campaigns, integrations with leading DeFi projects in the Aptos ecosystem and high user engagement. To date, the protocol is responsible for more than 1 million user transactions and 60,000 daily active users.

“The launch of the ECHO token marks a major milestone in our mission to bring BTCfi to life. With this TGE, we are unlocking a new phase of growth for our ecosystem and creating real opportunities for users, builders and the broader Aptos community,” said Jonathan Phay, Co-Founder of Echo Protocol.

Accelerating Growth with Aptos LFM Program

Echo’s rapid evolution has been supported through participation in Aptos Foundation’s LFM program, which offers strategic mentorship, marketing resources and ecosystem-wide support for Aptos-native projects preparing for TGEs and beyond.

“Echo Protocol has been instrumental in making BTC a productive, on-chain asset within the Aptos ecosystem,” said Ash Pampati, Head of Ecosystem at Aptos Foundation. “This a major milestone—not just for Echo, but for BTCfi adoption on Aptos as a whole. Supporting Echo through its participation in LFM has been a key part of our mission to help Aptos-native projects scale and succeed.”

Building the Future of Bitcoin Utility on Aptos

Echo’s TGE represents the next step in advancing Bitcoin utility on Aptos. Starting today, ECHO tokens will be available to users via Binance Alpha, Gate and Kucoin. Following its TGE, Echo plans to continue driving BTC liquidity and composability across the ecosystem, with new products and integrations aimed at expanding BTCfi use cases.

About Echo Protocol

Echo Protocol is a Bitcoin liquidity aggregation and yield infrastructure layer on MoveVM designed to make Bitcoin productive for holders, ecosystems, and DeFi protocols. By unifying fragmented BTC liquidity, enabling seamless DeFi integration, and amplifying yield opportunities, Echo provides the foundational infrastructure for unlocking BTC utility across chains. Echo Protocol is backed by leading investors such as Aptos, Maelstrom, and Selini, and is rapidly becoming the go-to layer for BTC capital efficiency in the modular DeFi stack.

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