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Bitcoin (BTC) tests $28,000, but onchain metrics urge caution

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Bitcoin tests $28,000

Over the past week, bitcoin has strengthened by about 30%. However, onchain indicators warn that despite this brisk rally, BTC could retreat to the $24,500 area.

According to analytics platform MacroMicro, the average cost of mining bitcoin accelerated last month.

Over the past 30 days through March 20, the cost of mining peaked at $33,000 per block, while the currency was only able to appreciate to $28,500. This divergence means that despite bitcoin’s rise, miners’ losses have only been piling up over the past month.

A nice development was the day of March 18, when the value of BTC overtook the cost of mining by about $3,000. However, all of this surplus will soon evaporate when new miners come to the market in the near future, rushing to take advantage of the coin’s appreciation.

In addition, the current rise in bitcoin may encourage miners to sell some of their reserves to compensate for earlier losses. Considering that miners’ reserves account for about 10% of the total amount of BTC in circulation right now, such bearish pressure from node operators in the bitcoin network could have a tangible impact on the cryptocurrency’s exchange rate.

Coin inflows to exchanges

Another potentially troubling sign could be the recently increased net inflow of bitcoins to trading platforms. This is signaled by data from the leading blockchain analytics resource, Glassnode.

Over the past seven days, the inflow of BTC deposits to exchanges has significantly exceeded the outflow of coins from trading platforms. During this period, the number of bitcoins stored on exchange addresses has consistently increased from 3,895 BTC as of March 13 to 36,700+ BTC as of March 19.

Typically, prolonged net inflows of bitcoins to exchanges are a sign that hodlers are preparing more intensely for short-term trading activity or convenient profit-taking opportunities.

If these assumptions are confirmed, such sales could trigger a pullback in the BTC exchange rate in the coming weeks.

BTC forecast: possible dive below $25,000

According to IntoTheBlock’s In the Money/Out of the Money (IOMAP) statistics, a likely target for bitcoin may be the $24,500 area.

As a reminder, this metric tracks addresses that approach the breakeven level. Historically, hodlers tend to sell when the BTC exchange rate reaches the average price. As of March 20, more than 72% of bitcoin hodlers were in the profit zone. This could signal the potential for massive profit-taking.

If bitcoin enters a bearish trend, the first stop will be the $27,000 area, where 307,000 addresses that bought 364,000 coins can offer decent support for the coin. If this barrier does not hold, a sharp drop in price to $24,500 is possible. There are about 1 million addresses who bought about 360 thousand coins.

This pessimistic forecast will be neutralized if the price breaks above $29,500, where 345 thousand addresses, which earlier bought 130 thousand coins, are concentrated. This breakthrough may provoke a rally to $32,000. In this area, there is a cluster of 237 thousand addresses that may want to sell some of the 74 thousand BTC that belong to them.

We previously reported that Hong Kong allocated another $50 million to the crypto industry.

Cryptocurrency

Top 10 RWA Cryptocurrencies by Development Activity: Details

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TL;DR

  • The leading token in the real-world asset (RWA) category shows higher development activity compared to its rivals.
  • Despite a recent dip in value, analysts are optimistic about a potential significant price rally for this asset in the near future.

This is the Winner

Real-world assets (RWA) represent certain physical assets, such as objects, properties, and others, and function on the blockchain through smart contracts. They have become quite popular lately, with a market capitalization equal to billions of dollars.

According to the market intelligence platform Sentiment, the token of that type that leads with the most development activity recorded in the past 30 days is Chainlink (LINK). 

“Chainlink currently produces 2.49x more daily activity than the next most active project, Synthetix, in the RWA sector,” the entity claimed.

Centrifuge (CFG), Dusk (DUSK), and Orai Chain (ORAI) rounded up the top 5 list.

“Santiment pulls notable github activity from project repositories via a back tested process to ensure only the team’s significant efforts to innovate and improve are included,” the platform explained.

LINK Price Predictions

Despite being down 10% on a two-week scale, multiple analysts remain optimistic that LINK’s value will experience a bull run in the near future

The popular X user Ali Martinez claimed that the TD (Tom DeMark) Sequential “is flashing buy signal on the Chainlink 12-hour chart.” He assumed LINK’s valuation could surge to $15.50 should it maintain above the critical resistance level of $13.87.

Michael van de Poppe was bullish, too, describing the token as one of the top 5 altcoins that can generate a 3x increase in BTC “with the lowest amount of risk.” 

Subsequently, CryptoWolf placed LINK on the list of “mooners” for the next bull cycle, while SlumDOGE Millionaire argued that it is one of the top “blue chip” cryptocurrencies at the moment.

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DOGE, SOL, AVAX Keep Plummeting as BTC Slumps Toward $62K (Market Watch)

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The positive price movements for bitcoin at the start of the business week were short-lived as the asset has lost over three grand since then and now struggles to remain above $62,000.

The altcoins are in no better state, with DOGE, SOL, and AVAX dropping by 5% or more in the past 24 hours.

BTC Drops Toward $62K

Bitcoin had a highly negative start to May that culminated last Wednesday with a price dump to a two-month low of $56,500. More volatility ensued when the US Fed said it would not raise the interest rates, but the actual recovery began at the end of last week.

BTC jumped to $59,500 before it initiated another leg up that drove it past $60,000 and $62,000 by Saturday. The gradual increases continued on Sunday, and bitcoin knocked on the $65,000 door.

After being stopped there at first, the cryptocurrency shot above it on Monday morning and tapped a 12-day peak of $65,500. However, it failed to maintain its run and started losing value rapidly.

This resulted in a price drop to $63,000, a brief bounce-off, and another decline in the past few hours to just over $62,000. Its market cap has dumped to $1.220 trillion on CG, but its dominance over the alts is up to almost 51%.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 08.05.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 08.05.2024. Source: TradingView

Alts Back in Red

Most of the larger-cap altcoins have turned red on a daily scale. Ethereum, for instance, is down to $3,000 after a 3% decline. Binance Coin has dropped to $580, ADA is down to $0.44. while XRP is close to breaking below $0.5.

Even more painful losses come from the likes of Dogecoin, Avalanche, and Solana. All of these have dumped by 5-7% in a day.

Most lower- and mid-cap alts are in a similar state, with WIF (-11%), ZBC (-7.5%), JUP (-7.5%), SUI (-7%), and FLOKI (-7%) leading the adverse trend.

The total crypto market cap has dropped to $2.4 trillion. This means that the metric is down by $100 billion in a day and $150 billion since Monday’s peak.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

FTX Has Amassed More Money Than Needed for Repayments 

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FTX filed an amended Plan of Reorganization and Disclosure Statement with the bankruptcy court on May 7 as part of its ongoing case.

The firm has proposed a way to repay creditors between $14.5 billion and $16.3 billion, which it has recovered from selling assets and consolidating funds from various entities. It owes customers and other non-governmental creditors about $11 billion.

This is billions of dollars more than it needs to cover what customers lost when the exchange collapsed in November 2022, and great news for creditors waiting for reimbursement.

FTX Back in The Black

“FTX has achieved this recovery level by monetizing an extraordinarily diverse collection of assets, most of which were proprietary investments held by the Alameda or FTX Ventures businesses, or litigation claims,” it stated in the announcement.

Under the proposed plan, 98% of FTX creditors with claims under $50,000 would receive around 118% of their allowed claims in cash within 60 days after the plan is approved.

Other non-governmental creditors would receive 100% of their allowed claims, plus potential additional interest payments of up to 9% from when FTX filed for bankruptcy.

FTX Chief Executive Officer John Ray said, “In any bankruptcy, this is just an unbelievable result.”

He added, “We are pleased to be in a position to propose a Chapter 11 plan that contemplates the return of 100% of bankruptcy claim amounts plus interest for non-governmental creditors.”

Additionally, FTX has reached settlements to resolve huge claims from the United States IRS (Internal Revenue Service) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

It aims to create a fund to provide supplemental payments to some creditors using recoveries that would have gone to regulators.

However, the payouts are still several months away as the firm finalizes its bankruptcy case.

Crypto Recovery

Much of that excess cash has been attributed to the recovery in cryptocurrency markets, particularly its heavy holdings such as Solana.

SOL prices have surged more than 1,100% since November 2022, when they fell below $12 in the wake of the exchange meltdown.

The asset is currently trading around $149, following a 4.5% decline on the day. SOL hit a 2024 high of $208 in mid-March but remains down 43% from its November 2021 peak price of $260.

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