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Bitcoin Enters Positive Seasonality Period, But There’s a Catch: CryptoQuant

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Bitcoin (BTC) usually performs well in the fourth quarter of bull cycle years, especially after halving events. CryptoQuant analysts say this year will be no different; however, things are not adding up.

According to a CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s apparent demand growth is still slow, and it will need to grow at faster rates to propel and sustain price rises in Q4.

BTC Demand Needs to Pick-up

Seasonal performances seen in 2012, 2016, and 2020, which are all halving years, recorded increases of 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively, for the price of BTC. So far in 2024, bitcoin’s performance has been similar to patterns seen in 2016 and 2020, indicating a high chance that the price would rally in the coming months.

The only difference between 2024 and 2020 is that BTC entered Q4 hovering between the bull and bear phases this year, while the asset entered Q4 2020 in a clear bull phase. The CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator tracked this movement, signaling that BTC had been hovering between the bull and bear phases for the past three weeks.

Demand needs to grow for BTC to remain steady in the bull phase. Based on past trends, analysts expect it to resume, possibly leading to an increase in short-term supply. The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier in 2024 caused a spike in supply, which reflected high demand as long-term holders sold to new buyers.

Currently, Bitcoin’s apparent demand growth appears muted, and it has been so since July, oscillating between -23,000 and +69,000 BTC monthly. This metric grew by 496,000 BTC in April when the asset was hovering at $70,000; hence, there is a lot of room for growth in Q4.

BTC Targets $85K to $100K

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States are already showing signs of increasing demand. They moved from net selling 5,000 BTC in early September to buying roughly 7,000 BTC by the end of the month. Analysts said this is the highest daily purchase since July 21.

Meanwhile, on-chain data valuation metrics suggest BTC could rally to $85,000 or $100,000 once prices pick up in Q4. Analysts called these target prices the upper and maximum levels of traders’ on-chain realized bands.

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Cryptocurrency

Ripple Price Analysis: Can XRP Skyrocket to $2 by the Year’s End?

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Ripple’s recent price action underscores significant bullish momentum as buyers continue to dominate the market.

Despite a potential brief consolidation phase, XRP is steadily approaching another coveted milestone of $2, with the prospect of achieving tapping that target by the year’s end growing.

XRP Analysis

By Shayan

The Weekly Chart

The weekly chart reveals Ripple’s remarkable trends, marked by a significant sell-off following the SEC lawsuit, during which the price plummeted to $0.28, a staggering 85% decline. This phase was followed by an extended period of low-volatility consolidation.

Eventually, buyers returned with vigor, driving the price through key resistance levels, including the pivotal $1.3 mark. Ripple’s subsequent impulsive surge highlights strong buying interest, pushing the cryptocurrency closer to a local peak of $1.9.

As the price approaches this critical level, bullish sentiment remains robust, but caution is warranted due to the overbought condition reflected in the RSI indicator. A brief consolidation or correction may precede upward momentum, with $1.3 as the primary support during any potential pullback.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour timeframe reflects Ripple’s breakout dynamics in greater detail. Upon encountering resistance at the $1.3 zone, the asset entered a consolidation phase, forming a sideways triangle pattern. This setup allowed the RSI to retreat from overbought levels and settle at equilibrium. Eventually, XRP surged, breaking out of the triangle’s upper boundary, signaling a bullish continuation.

Ripple managed to reclaim the $1.3 threshold and advance toward $2. While the bullish momentum is evident, a bearish divergence between the price and RSI hints at possible exhaustion. Furthermore, the presence of supply near the $1.9 resistance zone increases the likelihood of a consolidation phase in the near term. This temporary pause could allow the market to stabilize before XRP attempts to achieve new highs.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

XLM Rally Continues With 485% Monthly Surge, BTC Cools Off to $98K (Weekend Watch)

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Bitcoin’s inability to overcome the coveted $100,000 milestone on Friday and Saturday has resulted in a minor price decline to around $98,000 as of now.

Several altcoins, such as XRP and DOGE, have plummeted as well in the past day, but others, like TON, DOT, and XLM, have charted double-digit surges.

BTC Calms to $98K

BTC traded at around $90,000 at the start of the business week but quickly started to gain traction and exploded above the previous all-time high of $93,800 by the middle of it. This came amid the growing impressive net inflows toward the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the States.

The cryptocurrency’s rally continued in the following days and peaked on Friday. At the time, the asset came just inches away from touching $100,000 but was stopped at about $99,800 on most exchanges.

Thus, it failed to reach that line for the first time ever, even though the community was anticipating and predicting it. Since then, BTC has lost some traction and has retraced by around two grand to $98,000 now.

Still, it’s 7.2% up on the week, which places its market cap at $1.940 trillion on CG. Its dominance over the alts, though, has declined further to 55.5%, which brought speculations about a potential altcoin season.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 24.11.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 24.11.2024. Source: TradingView

XLM’s Show

Many larger-cap alts like ADA, XRP, and DOGE charted notable gains yesterday, but have retraced heavily today. ADA is down by 3% to under $1.05, XRP has slumped by over 6% to under $1.45, and DOGE has plummeted by 7.5% to $0.43.

In contrast, TON and DOT have soared by 11% and 17%, respectively, to $6.25 and $8.9. XLM, though, has stolen the show once again by skyrocketing by 29%. Stellar’s native token has added more than 480% in the past month and now trades above $0.56.

The total crypto market cap has shed about $50 billion since yesterday’s peak but still stands close to $3.5 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

Weekly ETF Recap: All Green Days for Bitcoin, But Not for Ethereum

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The US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs enjoyed a highly positive week, with every trading day ending with net inflows of millions and even billions of dollars.

In stark contrast, the Ethereum counterparties ended the same five-day trading period deep in red territory.

Over $3B Enter BTC ETFs Weekly

It has been nothing short of a spectacular run for BTC’s price as well as the inflows in the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US after Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 presidential elections. The past trading week was no different, although it started somewhat sluggishly on Monday with a modest $254.8 million in inflows.

However, things picked up on Tuesday with $829.5 million, another $773.4 million on Wednesday, and $490.3 million on Friday. Oh, let’s not forget the whopping $1.005,1 billion on Thursday. This puts the total for the week at $3.353,1 billion, according to Farside.

Expectedly, BlackRock’s IBIT, the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, was at the forefront of these substantial inflows most days. IBIT attracted over $500 million on three separate occasions – Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Thus, its total AUM has skyrocketed to well over $31 billion.

Fidelity’s FBTC also saw some impressive inflows of $256.1 million on Tuesday and just over $300 million on Thursday. Ark Invest’s ARKB had its best day on Tuesday, with $267.3 million in net inflows.

Within this highly positive week for the ETFs, BTC’s price shot up from around $90,000 on Monday to $99,825 (on Bitstamp) on Friday, thus coming less than $200 away from the six-figure territory.

ETH ETFs Suffer

The spot Ethereum ETFs also had quite impressive several trading days after the US elections, marking their best week yet in the period from November 11 to November 15. However, there were some warning signs at the end of the week, which only intensified in the following days.

In fact, the ETH ETFs ended almost every day in the past trading week in the red, with outflows of $39.1 million on Monday, $81.3 million on Tuesday, $30.3 million on Wednesday, and $9 million on Thursday. The funds managed to break this negative streak, which actually extended to six consecutive days in the red, including the previous Thursday and Friday, on November 22.

They attracted $91.3 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA leading the pack with $99.7 million, while Grayscale’s ETHE and ETH were in the red with $18.6 million and $0.6 million, respectively.

Overall, the ETH funds ended the week with net outflows of $68.4 million. Nevertheless, ETH’s price is up by just over 10% in the past week and sits above $3,400.

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