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Bitcoin HODLers Are Finally Starting To Take Profit: Glassnode

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Bitcoin (BTC)’s meteoric rise over the past few months has many long-term holders starting to cash out their positions, on-chain data suggests.

In a research newsletter published on Tuesday, Glassnode noted that long-term investors have already distributed 480,000 BTC since December 2023, from which time BTC has appreciated 45%.

Bitcoin’s Distribution Phase

According to lead Glassnode analyst James Check, roughly half of the old coins to started changing in the last three months came from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

As the largest Bitcoin fund in the world, Grayscale has suffered nothing but outflows since converting into a Bitcoin spot ETF on January 11, dumping 202,873 BTC on the market.

Overall, long-term holders are distributing coins at a rate of 257,000 BTC per month. By comparison, HODLers sold BTC at a rate of 319,000 BTC per month and 836,000 BTC per month during major market expansions in mid-2019 and early 2021, respectively.

“Like clockwork, long-term #Bitcoin holders have started their ATH distribution,” wrote Check in a post to X on Monday. “it goes to show that there are HODLers who can and do read the market very well.”

By Glassnode’s terms, a HODLer is anyone who’s held BTC in one wallet for over 155 days. On-chain data shows that the average cost basis for this cohort’s holdings is $20,700. In other words, at BTC’s current price of $64,700, they’re sitting on a ~225% profit.

In its Tuesday report, Glassnode explained:

“Based on the current value, these investors are approaching their Euphoria state with an elevated incentive to spend and take profits. Historically, this cohort ramps up their spending as new market ATHs are reached, with distribution accelerating until they help form the cycle macro top.”

Bitcoin’s Early All-Time High

Bitcoin briefly tapped a new all-time high on Tuesday at $69,200, before quickly descending back to $64,000 amid over $700 million in crypto market liquidations.

Despite the pullback, Glassnode said that BTC new demand may be enough to offset sell pressure from old investors for many months to come, based on historical trends.

Specifically, the average long-term holder has been net-selling BTC over the previous 8 to 15-day period for the past 42 days, while prior bull markets sustained such sell pressure for between 123 and 225 days.

“It may suggest that demand inflows could offset LTH spending for several months ahead, should history be any guide,” wrote Glassnode.

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Crypto Markets Bled $300 Billion in a Day as Bitcoin (BTC) Slumped to $95K (Market Watch)

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A lot can change in the cryptocurrency markets within 24 hours, and the last day proved that narrative, as BTC slumped from over $102,000 to $95,200.

The altcoins have suffered even more, with massive price declines from the likes of ETH, DOGE, ADA, AVAX, LINK, HBAR, DOT, and many others.

BTC Slumps Hard

After a relatively quiet weekend, which BTC spent mostly at around $98,000, the cryptocurrency went on the offensive on Monday. Within just a few hours, its price skyrocketed from under $99,000 to a multi-week peak of $102,400.

This was the first time the asset exceeded the $100,000 mark since the start of the year. It kept climbing during the Tuesday Asian trading session and peaked at $102,800 (on Bitstamp).

However, it quickly started to lose value as the day progressed. Once the US trading hours kicked in and some controversial data came out, BTC started to freefall and dumped by five grand in about 60 minutes. It kept dropping in the following hours and plunged to $95,200 earlier this morning, leaving roughly $700 million in liquidations.

Despite recovering slightly since then, bitcoin is still 6% down on the day. Its market cap has plummeted from over $2 trillion to under $1.9 trillion, and its dominance over the alts stands at 54.3%.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 8.1.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 8.1.2024. Source: TradingView

Alts in Freefall State

As it typically happens during such violent corrections, most altcoins have it worse. Ethereum is among the poorest performers, having dumped by 8% from over $3,600 to under $3,400. Even more painful declines come from SOL, DOGE, ADA, AVAX, SUI, LINK, HBAR, DOT, and SHIB, as most of them have dumped by double digits.

XRP and BNB have dropped by a more modest 4.5% and 3.2%, respectively, while LEO is the only larger-cap alt that is not deep in the red.

The total crypto market cap went from $3.760 trillion yesterday to under $3.5 trillion today, losing roughly $300 billion in the process from top to bottom.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Could Plunging Treasury Yields Be Why BTC Price Slumped Tuesday?

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Rising Treasury yields as a result of falling bond prices Tuesday knocked tech stocks in the Nasdaq Composite down nearly 2%.

Aside from BTC, Ethereum fell nearly 8%, Ripple dropped by 6%, and Solana slumped by nearly 10% in the 24-hour window.

BTC Price Retraces Jan 6 Bump on New Congress

Going into the work week, Bitcoin’s price picked up steam on Sunday after trading flat over Friday and Saturday around the $98,000 handle as it spiked to over $102,500 on Tuesday morning.

That was most likely a result of the blockchain market’s enthusiasm for the incoming pro-cryptocurrency Republican Congress. US delegates for the 119th Congress took their oaths of office on Monday after convening in Washington, DC, on Jan. 3.

Ripple Labs CEO Brad Garlinghouse, who oversees development for XRP—the third-most capitalized token without stablecoins (behind Bitcoin and Ethereum)—recently hailed the 119th as “the most pro-crypto Congress in history.”

But on Tuesday, market euphoria over the new regime in Washington faded fast as a surge in US Treasury bond yields depressed prices for risk assets broadly. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin weren’t the only growth-oriented high-risk/reward assets to fall on Tuesday.

Bitcoin’s Price Slumps on Treasury Yields

The Nasdaq Composite focused heavily on the tech sector, fell by more than 2.5% before the close of Wall Street markets at 4 pm US Eastern Standard Time. By the end of the day, the Nasdaq had lost nearly 2% after recovering some in intraday trading.

The Institute for Supply Management published new data on Tuesday indicating faster growth in December than analysts expected. Consequently, markets lost their nerve for US Treasury bonds on fears of more inflation in the US dollar.

When the dollar weakens, and prices move up in a growing economy, bond coupons and their principal investment due back to the note’s owner on the maturity date lose value. So, markets sell them at a discount, causing bond yields to rise.

Several analysts in retail and institutional finance have posted some exciting predictions for Bitcoin’s price in 2025. The sentiment overall for a continuing rally has been broadly bullish so far in January.

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Pro-XRP Lawyer Claims the SEC ‘Played Dirty’ in the Lawsuit Against Ripple: Details

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TL;DR

  • Ripple’s lawsuit with the SEC remains unresolved, with the agency accused of unethical tactics, including harassing the company’s CEO.
  • Pro-crypto SEC leadership changes could favor Ripple, though the case’s complexity calls for cautious optimism.

The SEC Pushed ‘Ethical Limits’

The legal tussle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is among the most intriguing topics in the crypto space. It all started in December 2020 when the agency sued the company, its CEO Brad Garlinghouse, and co-founder Chris Larsen, accusing them of illegally raising more than $1.3 billion in an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP.

The two entities have been throwing punches at each other in the following years, and despite the numerous developments and court rulings, the case remains ongoing.

According to John Deaton (an American lawyer representing thousands of XRP investors in the aforementioned lawsuit), the SEC “played dirty” and pushed “ethical limits” in the process. He claimed that the Commission’s attorneys “engaged in abusive discovery tactics, threatening and harassing Ripple’s overseas customers, investors, and partners.”

“Despite having the records of every XRP transaction made by Garlinghouse, the SEC attempted to subpoena all of Brad’s, and his family’s, personal financial records, including credit card statements. It was an attempt to bully, threaten, and coerce Garlinghouse (and Ripple) into submitting to the all powerful SEC,” he added.

Deaton, though, maintained that the company’s CEO endured the pressure, fought back “every step of the way,” and eventually won. 

“I love America because two years and one Presidential election later, the future couldn’t look more bright for an industry, company and CEO,” the lawyer concluded.

It is worth mentioning that Deaton’s post was accompanied by a photo of Garlinghouse, the newly elected president of the USA, Donald Trump, and Ripple’s CTO Stuart Alderoty, who recently had dinner together. The XRP army interpreted this gathering as good news for the firm’s potential growth in the near future and the performance of its native token.

Earlier this month, Garlinghouse credited the substantial resurgence of the cryptocurrency market to Donald Trump’s win in the presidential elections. He said Ripple signed more US deals in the final six weeks of the year than in the previous six months, while 75% of the firm’s open positions are now based in America.

Has Ripple Won the Case?

While the company notched several partial court wins, a final resolution of the lawsuit has yet to be seen. Last summer, Judge Analisa Torres ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty for violating federal securities laws through its institutional sales of XRP.

It is important to note that in 2023, the same magistrate found that the firm’s programmatic sales of XRP to retail clients through centralized exchanges did not breach the rules.

Ripple respected the decision and was ready to pay the fine. After all, it represented just a fraction of the $2 billion the SEC initially requested. 

However, the watchdog officially appealed in October, delaying the outcome indefinitely. The upcoming changes in the SEC’s leadership, such as replacing Chairman Gary Gensler with the pro-crypto Paul Atkins, may result in a favorable resolution for Ripple. The XRP army, though, should have somewhat realistic hopes, considering the complexity of the entire legal process.

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