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Bitcoin is close to a two-year low. What awaits it next

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Experts explain what factors put pressure on cryptocurrencies and when you can expect positive changes in the market

Since the beginning of the year, the capitalization of digital currencies has decreased by 60% — to $934 billion. The “crypto winter” collapsed the price of bitcoin by 70% of the historical maximum of $69,000.

Tokens of meta-vendors and NFT-projects, as well as currencies of DeFi-platforms were hit hardest — coins lost in price from 70% to 85% since the beginning of the year. Cryptocurrencies on exchanges fell the least: their quotes fell by 46%-57%.

Since mid-June, bitcoin rates have been fluctuating in the range of $18,000 — $22,000. Because of the falling quotes, some institutional investors and credit crypto platforms have already faced financial problems, and mining companies are forced to sell all the mined bitcoin to cover operating costs.

Is there potential for bitcoin growth in the near term, or is a true reversal in the market still to come? Experts described the current price dynamics in the cryptocurrency market and told when the turning point may occur.

Bitcoin price dynamics

The current week “pleases” traders with increased volatility. After bitcoin went below $19K on July 13, the panic was very strong.

If you look at the chart of BTC from the point of view of technical analysis, “the price is in a horizontal channel with a width of about $4000. Approximately the same channel was formed in May-June and as a result the price strongly “fell”.

Now there are already a lot of touches in the new channel as the upper and lower edges, so with a high degree of probability, the exit from the channel will occur in the next couple of weeks, the expert suggested. On July 13, the price “pushed back” from the lower boundary; that is, we can hope that the growth will continue to the upper boundary.

There is full synchronization with the index S & P 500, from its movement now directly depends on the dynamics of bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies. A breakdown of the horizontal channel upwards will open a target to levels around $26k, while a breakdown downwards will open a target of $16k.

Influence of external factors

The most likely negative scenario, which implies the fall of the entire crypto market, and bitcoin — to $15,000 in the next month.

Cryptocurrencies are seen as a tool to hedge inflation risks. But on the other hand, digital assets now correlate strongly with the stock market, and the latter will inevitably show a decline due to high inflation in the U.S., despite all the efforts of the Fed to curb this growth.

At the next meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve will decide to raise the key rate again. This is already obvious, and in the run-up to the meeting, capital will start to exit high-risk assets.

In August, bitcoin will fall to multi-year lows, but this does not cancel the forecast for the growth of bitcoin in the perspective of 3 years. Bitcoin will return to growth in the autumn.

In the second half of 2023, a new bullish cycle will begin in anticipation of another halving. And bitcoin will update to new all-time highs within 12 months of it — between May 2024 and May 2025.

Intermediate bottom

Soon we expect mostly sideways movement with the risk of another renewal of annual lows for BTC, ETH, and some other capitalized assets.

Such dynamics are unlikely to lead to a significant drop in quotations, and the new lows will allow market participants to enter assets more profitable, the expert explained. He said he expects the prices will recover sharply after the possible decline of BTC up to $17,000 and ETH — up to $900.

Until the end of July, the crypto market will form an intermediate bottom, which will give cryptocurrencies an opportunity to strengthen within 2-3 months; Pershikov said. The current dynamics will remain until the end of the month, while growth in individual assets and the market will begin in August. 

Cryptocurrency

Gary Gensler Officially Out: What Does It Mean for Ripple (XRP)?

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TL;DR

  • Gary Gensler was replaced with pro-crypto advocate Mark Uyeda.
  • The lawsuit between Ripple and the securities regulator continues, with the XRP army expecting a favorable resolution after the changes at the agency’s helm.

Gensler’s Tenure is Over

Gary Genslerthe former Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)officially stepped down on January 20. He spent almost four years at the helm, during which the regulator filed countless lawsuits against crypto businesses.

Perhaps the most popular is the legal tussle versus Ripple Labs (the company behind the cryptocurrency XRP). The entities have been at war since December 2020, and despite the numerous developments and court rulings, the case remains ongoing.

Gensler’s resignation coincided with Donald Trump’s return to the White House as America’s 47th President. Upon assuming power, the Republican enforced multiple amendments. Among those was the designation of Mark Uyeda as Gensler’s successor. 

Uyeda is known as a proponent of balanced regulation that ensures investor protection while avoiding regulatory overreach. He has also presented himself as an advocate of the crypto industry, criticizing the SEC’s previous leadership for its negative stance on the matter. 

“The Commission’s war on crypto must end, including crypto enforcement actions solely based on a failure to register with no allegation of fraud or harm,” Uyeda said in November last year.

The crypto community has long desired Gensler’s resignation and his replacement with someone more open toward the industry. Uyeda’s appointment might sound like great news, but the XRP army should keep in mind that the final resolution of the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC is no easy task and could be prolonged in time due to the complexity of the legal process.

Perhaps XRP’s recent rally that started after the US elections could be attributed to a large extent to the hopes of a more favorable regulatory landscape in the country during the Trump administration. However, those who have pushed for a quick resolution could be disappointed as Gensler’s departure doesn’t necessarily mean the case is done. As such, the company’s native token might correct hard if it turns out that there’s a classic ‘sell-the-news’ event unfolding.

Meanwhile, the American attorney Jeremy Hogan noted that Uyeda will serve as acting Chairman of the securities regulator until the permanent one is confirmed. He expects this to happen in March or April this year.

Not long ago, Trump nominated Paul Atkins to lead the agency. The latter is also considered a proponent of cryptocurrencies but we have yet to see whether the Commission will change its approach once he steps in charge.

Ripple v. SEC: What’s New?

As mentioned above, the lawsuit between the entities has witnessed many developments in the past few months. Most recently, the SEC filed an opening brief requesting the US Court of Appeals to overturn Judge Torres’ decision from 2023. Back then, the magistrate ruled that XRP sales on public exchanges to retail investors did not constitute securities transactions.

Some of Ripple’s executives were not pleased with the regulator’s latest actions. CEO Brad Garlinghouse described the filing as “insanity,” whereas CLO Stuart Alderoty called it “a rehash of already failed arguments” that are likely to be abandoned by the next administration. 

“We’ll respond formally in due time. For now, know this: the SEC’s lawsuit is just noise. A new era of pro-innovation regulation is coming, and Ripple is thriving,” the latter added.

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‘Buy Crypto’ and ‘Buy Solana’ Google Searches Skyrocket After Trump Meme Coin Release

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Search volumes for the terms “buy crypto” and “buy Solana” have reached their highest scores on Google Trends.

The surge in interest aligns with the launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) meme coin over the weekend ahead of the president’s inauguration.

Search Trends Data

According to data from Google Trends, both search terms have hit the maximum score of 100, indicating a peak in global interest. Similarly, search interest in “Coinbase” and “crypto app” also experienced significant increases.

Further, searches for “Bitcoin” and “Crypto” saw spikes over the past week, with the former hitting a score of 100 and the latter reaching 92 on January 20.

According to The Block Research, mentions of “Bitcoin” on X also grew from 247,000 in the second week of January to 495,000 in the third. Similarly, “Ethereum” mentions jumped from 73,600 to 293,000 during the same period.

The analysts suggested that this increase in social media activity could be a reflection of rising participation from retail audiences, with casual users and influencers playing a key role in the growing crypto conversation.

TRUMP Meme Coin Ignites Crypto Market Activity

President Trump recently made headlines when he rolled out his new meme coin over the weekend. Initially met with skepticism by some traders who questioned its legitimacy due to similar tokens in the market, the asset gained traction after Trump addressed the launch on X, writing, “My new Official Trump meme is here! It is time to celebrate everything we stand for: Winning!”

Once authenticity was confirmed, TRUMP experienced a rapid price rally. Its value exploded after going live, with the token reaching a high of $75.35 and a market cap briefly surpassing $15 billion ahead of the president entering office.

However, the price surge did not last. CoinGecko data shows that TRUMP’s market capitalization has since dropped to around $7.7 billion, with its price falling by 32.3% in the last 24 hours, to trade at $38.90.

Incidentally, the launch also had a positive impact on Solana’s native token, SOL, which recently reached an all-time high of around $293. Analysts have attributed this jump in the cryptocurrency’s price to the hype surrounding the TRUMP meme coin.

In general, many crypto influencers and analysts view the development as a major event for capital formation in the crypto sector. However, not all industry participants are convinced by the recent excitement. Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan cautioned against the speculative nature of meme coins, describing them as a “zero-sum lottery” with no genuine wealth creation.

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Ripple (XRP) Achieves a Major Adoption Milestone: Details

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TL;DR

  • Ripple (XRP) has surged 500% in less than three months, with the number of wallets surpassing 6 million and ecosystem activity increasing.
  • Analysts foresee the asset reaching new highs, with targets between $4.40 and $6, despite recent dips linked to broader market corrections after Trump’s inauguration.

XRP’s Progress

Despite its plunge on a daily scale, Ripple’s XRP has been on a tear in the past few months. Recall that the price was hovering at around $0.50 at the beginning of November last year, while currently, it is worth over $3 (representing a 500% increase).

XRP Price
XRP Price, Source: CoinGecko

This impressive rally could be one reason behind the rising adoption. According to the latest data, the total number of XRP wallets exceeded 6 million. This should be considered a serious achievement, considering that the figure stood at around 5 million at the start of 2024. 

This development coincides with other Ripple-related metrics that have been on the rise recently. Some examples include the number of executed XRP transactions and the number of newly activated accounts. 

Reaching the aforementioned milestone, plus the increased ecosystem activity, suggests an expanding user base, which could boost demand and create additional upward pressure on the price. 

XRP Forecasts

The list of analysts predicting that the token is poised for further gains is quite substantial. Most recently, the popular X user Ali Martinez claimed XRP “has broken out of a bullish flag” and is now gearing up for a new all-time high of $4.40. 

Mikybull Crypto envisioned a similar target, maintaining that the asset has “one of the strongest bullish charts out there.” 

Other market observers who chipped in lately include the X users CEO and Dark Defender. The former thinks XRP could skyrocket to $6, whereas the latter believes the asset may never plunge below $3 again.

It is important to note that Dark Defender made their forecast on January 20, when the price was trading well above $3.15. However, several hours later, it dipped below $3 following the plunge of the entire cryptocurrency market once Donald Trump officially became America’s 47th President.

During his inauguration, he touched upon multiple topics but failed to mention the digital asset industry, which might explain the dip. As CryptoPotato reported, the correction resulted in over $200 million in liquidations within an hour, as hundreds of thousands of traders were wrecked.

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