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Bitcoin is in ‘new bull cycle’ — Metric that bottomed before 70% gains

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The Bitcoin (BTC) metric that nailed the pit of the 2022 bear market says its uptrend is still intact.

In an X post on Aug. 22, creator of on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin shared some good news in the form of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL).

Analyst: “New money” flowing into Bitcoin in 2023

While last week’s 10% BTC price dip has upended some of the on-chain landscape, RHODL is one of the metrics taking a longer-term view of what remains a timely bull market.

The metric takes existing HODL Waves data, which groups the BTC supply by when each coin or, specifically, unspent transaction outputs, last moved, and weights it by realized price — i.e., the price at which it last moved.

If this sounds complicated, the results have clear implications.

“Peaks in younger age bands highlight periods where they have a proportionally higher Realized Value weighting relative to the older Realized Value age bands,” Philip Swift explained in an introduction on LookIntoBitcoin.

“This is important to note as it indicates that the market is prepared to pay higher values for bitcoin today and in recent times, versus historical norms. This can be a good indicator that the market is becoming overheated.”

Currently, bands of coins that last moved three to six months ago are rising — a phenomenon common to the start of Bitcoin’s previous bull markets.

On the topic of the August drawdown on BTC/USD, Swift thus concluded that “the recent price dip is in the context of a much bigger bull trend.”

“3–6 month band trending up as new money comes back into the market = new bull cycle,” he summarized.

Realized Cap HODL Waves annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/X

Charting the return of BTC price “euphoria”

RHODL has an impressive record when it comes to BTC price phases.

Related: Most fear since SVB collapse — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

In December 2022, when BTC/USD was circling its two-year lows of $15,600, Swift used the metric to call the end of “euphoria” among Bitcoin’s speculative investor cohort, which he labeled “tourists.”

He stated at the time that the market is likely now at cycle lows, which means maximum risk-reward opportunity.

Realized Cap HODL Waves annotated chart from December 2022. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

Beginning in January this year, Bitcoin began a new uptrend that delivered 70% gains in Q1 alone.

Since then, investor composition has changed, with short-term holders (STHs) — entities holding BTC for 155 days or less — reducing their overall exposure to their lowest since November 2021.

The latest dip nonetheless increased pressure on those remaining speculators, with almost 90% of STH coins now held at an unrealized loss.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

Cryptocurrency

LINK Dumps by 9% Daily as BTC Falls to $94K (Weekend Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price actions at the end of the year are quite underwhelming as the asset tumbled from $97,000 to under $94,000 yesterday and is down by fourteen grand since last Tuesday’s peak.

The altcoins have suffered as well, with many violent price corrections from the likes of AVAX, LINK, SUI, and others.

BTC’s Struggles See No End

The Fed-induced correction began last week as bitcoin dumped from its latest all-time high of over $108,000 to $92,000 in just a few days. It managed to recover some ground last weekend and even spiked to $99,000, but that was short-lived, and the asset headed straight south on Monday.

After another slump toward $92,000, the bull took charge and pushed it to a multi-day peak of just under $100,000. However, this rally was halted quickly as well, and bitcoin started losing value once again in the following days.

After failing at $97,000 yesterday, the bears drove it down once more to under $94,000. Although it has been able to recover some ground since then and now trades above that line, BTC is still more than 2% down on the day.

Its market capitalization has dumped to $1.870 trillion on CG, and its dominance over the alts has retraced to 54.4%.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 28.12.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 28.12.2024. Source: TradingView

Alts in Red Only

The alternative coins are deep in red today as well. Ethereum was stopped on a few occasions at $3,500 and is down to $3,360 now. XRP is well below $2.2, while BNB fights to remain above $700. SOL, ADA, DOGE, and TON have produced losses of up to 3%.

Even more painful declines come from AVAX, SUI, LINK, DOT, and HBAR. In fact, Chainlink’s token has plummeted by nearly 10% and is deep beneath $22.

Most lower- and mid-cap alts are in a similar state as well. Consequently, the total crypto market cap has dumped by $150 billion in the past two days to just over $3.4 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

ChatGPT Weighs in: Can Ripple (XRP) Finally Hit New All-Time High in 2025?

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TL:DR;

  • XRP went on a wild ride at the end of 2024 but still came short when it was a matter of breaking above $3 and potentially reaching a new all-time high.
  • Will that finally change for the asset in 2025? Here’s ChatGPT’s answer.

Can XRP Break Above $3.4 in 2025?

It’s safe to say that the Trump-induced rally after his decisive win in the 2024 US presidential elections benefited some assets more than others. XRP stood quietly below $0.6 but on the hopes that the SEC lawsuit will finally be resolved during a more favorable administration and better regulations, it skyrocketed within several weeks to almost $3.

However, its run was halted there and Ripple’s native cross-border token even slipped below $2 on a couple of occasions. It now stands at around $2.15, which is more than 35% away from its January 7, 2018 all-time high of $3.4.

With just a few days left in 2024, it seems highly unlikely that this record will fall by January 1. But, what are XRP’s chances for a new all-time high in 2025? Well, ChatGPT’s answer was quite bullish, actually.

In the first part, the AI chatbot indicated that numerous analysts and forecasts envision XRP going to $4.5 in H1 of 2025, driven by “factors such as increased adoption and favorable regulatory develpoments.” Furthermore, the AI tool asserted that the asset could shot up to $7 if the aforementioed factors align with better market conditions and investor sentiment.

Nevertheless, it also had a second part to its answer, suggesting that “XRP may underperform in 2025 as investors might shift their focus to newer cryptocurrencies, potentially impacting its growth prospects.”

And Perplexity Says…?

ChatGPT’s rival also outlined XRP’s spectacular price growth at the end of 2024 and highlighted three probable scenarios for the asset for the next year. The conservative one sees XRP stabilizing between its current level and $3. The more optimistic one foresees a price rally to uncharted territory of $4.44 and $5.25.

The more outrageous prediction indicates a run toward $8 by the end of 2025. Such a price tag would put XRP’s market capitalization at roughly $500 billion, which would make it the second-largest by that metric if ETH’s stays the same.

Perplexity mentioned essentially the same factors that could propel a price rally for XRP, including better regulatory landscape in the US, bullish market sentiment across the entire crytpo fieled, and growing institutional adoption. The last part could be fastlaned if the upcoming SEC administration approves a Ripple ETF, just like it did with BTC and ETH in 2024.

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Bitget’s Token Merge and Burn Boost BGB by 22%, Reaching New ATH

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Bitget, a Seychelles-based crypto exchange, has unified its native cryptocurrencies, Bitget Token (BGB) and Bitget Wallet Token (BWB), into a single utility token, BGB.

The move has led to an impressive 22% rise in Bitget Token’s price in the last 24 hours, pushing it to an all-time high (ATH) of $8.45.

In addition, the company revealed that they will burn a whopping $5 billion worth of BGB tokens in a newly unvelied whitepaper.

Token Merge Sparks Market Enthusiasm

At the time of writing, data from CoinGecko showed that the asset’s value had increased by more than 125% over the past seven days, outperforming the global crypto market, which lost 1.50% of its worth in that period. In addition, it has done better than similar centralized exchange (CEX) tokens, which are up about 12.70% on average.

The uptick is even more pronounced across extended periods, with BGB jumping more than 160% in the last fortnight and almost 430% over 30 days. Further, the token’s current price is a massive 1,346.2% improvement over its level from the same time last year, potentially making it the best-performing CEX cryptocurrency of 2024.

BGB’s current market capitalization of over $11.7 billion has propelled it into the #19 position among the largest-capped cryptocurrencies, leaping Stellar (XLM), Polkadot (DOT), and Hedera (HBAR).

In addition to the merger, the team revealed a considerable burn of more than $5 billion worth of tokens, which surely played a role in the price uptick. This represents over 40% of the total supply of BGB.

Utility and Real-World Integration

According to Bitget CEO Gary Chen, the merger will grow BGB’s utility, with plans to use it in decentralized applications (dApps) and major blockchain ecosystems. The integration will also reportedly extend to staking in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and to power essential services such as multi-chain gas fee payments.

Beyond the blockchain, the exchange intends to position BGB as a key enabler of real-world applications by allowing payments for dining, travel, and shopping, among others, through its Web3 PayFi service.

The company has assured BWB holders that their assets will be transitioned to BGB through an automated swap process that will convert each BWB token to BGB at a pre-determined ratio. Any remaining BWB has been earmarked for burning to bolster the unified asset’s scarcity and long-term value.

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