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Bitcoin is in ‘new bull cycle’ — Metric that bottomed before 70% gains

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The Bitcoin (BTC) metric that nailed the pit of the 2022 bear market says its uptrend is still intact.

In an X post on Aug. 22, creator of on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin shared some good news in the form of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL).

Analyst: “New money” flowing into Bitcoin in 2023

While last week’s 10% BTC price dip has upended some of the on-chain landscape, RHODL is one of the metrics taking a longer-term view of what remains a timely bull market.

The metric takes existing HODL Waves data, which groups the BTC supply by when each coin or, specifically, unspent transaction outputs, last moved, and weights it by realized price — i.e., the price at which it last moved.

If this sounds complicated, the results have clear implications.

“Peaks in younger age bands highlight periods where they have a proportionally higher Realized Value weighting relative to the older Realized Value age bands,” Philip Swift explained in an introduction on LookIntoBitcoin.

“This is important to note as it indicates that the market is prepared to pay higher values for bitcoin today and in recent times, versus historical norms. This can be a good indicator that the market is becoming overheated.”

Currently, bands of coins that last moved three to six months ago are rising — a phenomenon common to the start of Bitcoin’s previous bull markets.

On the topic of the August drawdown on BTC/USD, Swift thus concluded that “the recent price dip is in the context of a much bigger bull trend.”

“3–6 month band trending up as new money comes back into the market = new bull cycle,” he summarized.

Realized Cap HODL Waves annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/X

Charting the return of BTC price “euphoria”

RHODL has an impressive record when it comes to BTC price phases.

Related: Most fear since SVB collapse — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

In December 2022, when BTC/USD was circling its two-year lows of $15,600, Swift used the metric to call the end of “euphoria” among Bitcoin’s speculative investor cohort, which he labeled “tourists.”

He stated at the time that the market is likely now at cycle lows, which means maximum risk-reward opportunity.

Realized Cap HODL Waves annotated chart from December 2022. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

Beginning in January this year, Bitcoin began a new uptrend that delivered 70% gains in Q1 alone.

Since then, investor composition has changed, with short-term holders (STHs) — entities holding BTC for 155 days or less — reducing their overall exposure to their lowest since November 2021.

The latest dip nonetheless increased pressure on those remaining speculators, with almost 90% of STH coins now held at an unrealized loss.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

Cryptocurrency

Crypto Price Analysis September-20: ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, and SOL

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This week, we take a closer look at Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Solana.

cryptopost_friday_cover

Ethereum (ETH)

The market has had a great week so far, and Ethereum closed with a 9% price increase. On Wednesday, the Fed cut the interest rate by 0.50%, which turned out to be extremely bullish for crypto. Since then, ETH has also managed to break above $2,400.

With buyers back, the momentum is shifting bullish again. The current target for this cryptocurrency is $2,800, which will also act as resistance. The former resistance at $2,400 is now a key support, and as long as it is not lost, buyers have the advantage.

Looking ahead, Ethereum is finally showing signs of recovery after months of difficult price action in which bears dominated.

ETHUSD_2024-09-20_14-07-02
Chart by TradingView

Ripple (XRP)

XRP increased by 4% this week but appears to lag behind other market leaders such as Ethereum or Solana. This could be because it already broke its resistance at 54 cents last week, and buyers may be distracted by other opportunities at this time.

Nevertheless, momentum remains bullish on this price action, and XRP needs to make a higher high to maintain it. A clean break above 60 cents can restore confidence and see the price attempt a test of the next key target at 68 cents.

Looking ahead, XRP may be preparing for its next major move, especially if the overall market remains bullish.

XRPUSDT_2024-09-20_14-06-34
Chart by TradingView

Cardano (ADA)

So far in September, ADA has been bouncing between the key levels, but this could be its most important opportunity to break the resistance at 37 cents. While the price closes the week with only a 1% increase, optimism is high that Cardano can finally have a breakout.

The past two weeks saw the price find good support around 33 cents, and sellers were unable to push ADA below that. This improved confidence in the price action, and buyers returned.

Looking ahead, the biggest challenge for this cryptocurrency is to break above 37 cents. That would put ADA back on the offensive to recover the losses incurred since March 2024.

ADAUSDT_2024-09-20_14-06-05
Chart by TradingView

Binance Coin (BNB)

Binance Coin remains a great performer and closed the week with a 6% price increase. This allowed buyers to keep the price well above the $500 support and even aim towards $600, which is the current target for this uptrend.

Buyers are dominating right now, which shows promise for a sustained uptrend in the coming weeks. Moreover, on the 3-day timeframe, the MACD made a bullish cross, which is picking up momentum. This favors a continuation of this uptrend.

Looking ahead, BNB is found in a strong position based on its price action, which shows that it is ready to challenge the highs from earlier this year.

BNBUSDT_2024-09-20_14-07-45
Chart by TradingView

Solana (SOL)

Solana is our strongest performer this week, with a 12% price increase. As soon as the resistance at $134 was broken, buyers rushed to this cryptocurrency, and the price shot up.

The current rally is coming on strong buy volume, which could see SOL test the resistance at $164 in the next few days. That would only encourage buyers further.

Looking ahead, Solana is back in the spotlight, and market participants seem to prefer it over other major altcoins. If this market rally continues, Solana may be among the first to benefit.

SOLUSDT_2024-09-20_14-07-23
Chart by TradingView
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Touched $64K, Solana (SOL) Explodes 9% Daily (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price rally that started after the US Fed reduced the interest rates on Wednesday took the asset to a multi-week peak of over $64,000 hours ago.

The altcoins also followed suit, with ETH breaking above $2,500 and BNB soaring past $570.

BTC Kept Pumping

This highly anticipated business week actually started with a retracement on Monday that drove the primary cryptocurrency from over $60,000 to under $58,000 in hours. However, the bulls quickly resumed control of the market and pushed the asset to over $61,000 ahead of the Wednesday FOMC meeting.

Once it concluded that the US central bank announced a 0.5% cut in the key interest rates, BTC went on a rollercoaster with several movements up and down. Still, the bulls came out stronger, at least for now, and initiated an impressive rally for bitcoin.

As reported yesterday, the asset tapped $63,000 for the first in three weeks. However, it kept adding value and briefly exceeded $64,000 earlier today for the first time since late August.

Nevertheless, its ascend has been halted for now, and BTC now sits about a grand lower. It’s still 2% up on the day, which has pushed its market cap to $1.250 trillion. Its dominance over the alts, though, has been slashed to 54.3% after soaring past 55% yesterday for the first time in almost four years.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 20.09.2024. Source; TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 20.09.2024. Source; TradingView

SOL, AVAX on the Run

Most altcoins were trailing behind BTC in the past few days, but have charted more impressive gains today. The pack is led by Solana and Avalanche. Both of them have surged by around 9% to $151 and $28, respectively.

Chainlink has added 5% of value, and so has Ethereum. In fact, ETH has skyrocketed to a multi-week peak of its own at $2,550.

The most impressive daily increases come from the likes of TAO (15%), APT (12%), CORE (12%), JUP (11%), SUI (11%), and LDO (11%).

The total crypto market cap has gained another $70 billion overnight and is above $2.3 trillion on CG now.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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BTC, ETH Shot Up to 3-Week Peaks as ETFs Recorded Net Inflows

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The cryptocurrency market saw some long-time coming revival after the United States Federal Reserve cut the interest rates on Wednesday for the first time in about four years.

The two largest digital assets went on a run, jumping by roughly 10% in the past few days.

BTC Price Rises Amid ETF Inflows

The 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs have enjoyed investors’ demand and attention ever since they went live for trading in January this year. Their negative and positive streaks in terms of net flows have influenced the underlying asset’s price to the extent that BTC tapped a new all-time high just two months after they saw the light of day.

As with most markets, investors’ perspective changes with current macro and micro-economic conditions and news. As such, it was interesting to follow how they would act in this particular week because of the Fed’s FOMC meeting that took place on Wednesday.

After all, this was the first interest rate cut in the States since 2020, which also means that it was the first since the inception of the BTC ETFs. In the days leading to the meeting, US investors poured over $500 million in net inflows to the financial vehicles but withdrew $52.7 million on Wednesday.

However, their attitude changed once again yesterday – the first full trading day after the rate reduction. Data from FarSide shows total net inflows of $158.3 million. Ark Invest’s ARKB led the pack with $81.1 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with nearly $50 million. There were no reportable outflows, but BlackRock’s IBIT saw no action.

In the same timeframe, BTC’s price skyrocketed from $59,000 (on the rate-cut day) to just over $64,000 earlier today before retracing slightly to $63,400 (as of now).

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 20.09.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 20.09.2024. Source: TradingView

Even ETH ETFs See Inflows

Unlike the Bitcoin ETFs, the Ethereum counterparts have failed to attract real interest, recording very few days in net inflows since their start in late July. In the days ahead of the FOMC meeting, investors took out $9.4 million on Monday and $15.1 million on Tuesday. Another $9.8 million was withdrawn on Wednesday.

However, the tides turned for the Ethereum ETFs as well yesterday, with total net inflows of $5.2 million. Interestingly, the entire amount went into BlackRock’s ETHA, and the rest of the ETFs saw zero reportable flows.

ETH’s price also soared alongside BTC. It had dumped to $2,300 during the FOMC meeting on Wednesday but earlier today neared $2,575 (a 12% surge) for the first time since late August.

Ethereum/Price/Chart 20.09.2024. Source: TradingView
Ethereum/Price/Chart 20.09.2024. Source: TradingView
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