Bitcoin more likely to plummet to $10,000 than rise to $30,000 — poll
Bitcoin enthusiasts better watch out: Wall Street thinks the cryptocurrency hasn’t bottomed out yet
According to the latest MLIV Pulse poll, 60% of respondents believe that BTC will fall another half of its current levels, to $10,000, rather than rise to $30,000. Only 40% of those surveyed were optimistic. BTC fell 2.8% to $20,390 in Monday’s trading.
The skewed outlook suggests that bearish sentiment dominates the market. Lately, the industry has been hit by one crisis: after another: cryptocurrencies collapse, lenders go bankrupt. Investors run to safe assets, anticipating the end of an easy money policy.
According to CoinGecko, an analytics service, cryptocurrency market capitalization has shrunk by nearly $2 trillion since the end of last year.
Retail investors are more skeptical. Nearly a quarter of those surveyed believe that cryptocurrency, as an asset class, will become nothing. Professional investors are more open and loyal to digital assets.
Overall, the market remains deeply divided and polarized: about 28% of total respondents believe cryptocurrencies are the future, while 20% say they are useless garbage.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021; since then, the cryptocurrency has lost two-thirds of its value. The last time $10,000 was fixed was in September 2020.
The crisis in the industry is likely to prompt governments to tighten regulation. Most respondents believe regulations and controls are needed. They will increase trust and encourage mass adoption of cryptocurrency among institutional and retail investors.
Consumers affected by the TerraUSD Stablecoin crash, as well as those who lost money due to the bankruptcy and shutdown of Celsius Network, Voyager and others, would also welcome government intervention.
Regulators and government institutions are also considering developing their own cryptocurrencies.
But neither falling prices nor a possible tightening of controls will destroy the industry. Most respondents believe one of the leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin or Ethereum, will remain a driving force over the next five years, even as digital currencies play a key role.
Respondents were nearly unanimous on the issue of non-interchangeable tokens. NFTs have become famous for their fabulous prices. Pictures of monkeys at the peak of the crypto boom were selling for millions of dollars. But the vast majority of those surveyed see them as mere art projects or status indicators, and only 9% see them as an investment opportunity.
Those who are on the lookout for a new bubble, however, would be better off looking at something new. Speculative mania rarely hits the same spot twice. Overall, most respondents believe the next boom will not involve cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin onchain metric are stronger than ever
Galaxy Digital analysts published a report that examined key bitcoins onchain metrics (BTC), compared the world’s main cryptocurrency to other asset classes and explained what events could be the catalyst for the coming price rally. The company is confident that the bulls have plenty of reasons to remain optimistic – even despite difficult macroeconomic conditions.
BTC has become the best performing asset of 2023
Bitcoin is the best performing asset in 2023 compared to a lot of stocks, fixed income securities, indices, and commodities. It shows the best or some of the best performance over various time horizons (except for 1 year), and it looks even stronger over the long haul.
In addition, bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 stock indices has begun to decline, while its correlation with gold, which is considered a classic haven asset, has risen sharply. This happened against the backdrop of the crisis that engulfed U.S. banks and led to the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate and Signature.
Given the nature of the current crisis, in which the system of partial bank reserves is tested for strength, the fundamental characteristics of the BTC favorably distinguish it from traditional assets.
Accumulation, not driving price rally speculation
A number of key market indicators indicate that bitcoin’s price rally is driven by the accumulation of coins on the spot, not speculation in the derivatives market. The futures funding indicator has remained virtually unchanged since the beginning of 2023 – meaning that the market is net-neutral regarding speculative positioning. The same can be said about volume and open interest in the CME.
The total number of addresses with non-zero balances also continues to grow rapidly, with more than 45 million wallets holding BTC today. At the same time, most of them have never spent coins, but only received new ones.
The approaching halving will affect the level of inflation in the BTC network
The next bitcoin halving will occur in April 2024 and will cause the network’s inflation rate to fall below 1%. The halving events of 2012, 2016 and 2020 catalyzed a price rally and reached a new all-time high as investor demand for BTC quickly exceeded the declining supply level.
This event will put bitcoin among the most stable assets and make it less susceptible to inflation than gold and silver.
Early we reported that Whales are interested in Litecoin, again.
Whales are interested in Litecoin, again: will it help LTC price return to the $100 mark
In February, Litecoin, albeit briefly, returned to the $100 level for the first time since the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May 2022. In early March, the price of the asset dipped below the $70 mark again. But that didn’t seem to hinder the whales’ plans, as large holders actively bought LTC during the correction.
Whale activity continues to rise
According to analyst firm IntoTheBlock, the average LTC transaction size increased more than 600% in March 2023, from $13,355 to $81,022.
The increase in average transaction size as the price pulls back signals an influx of large investors looking to buy back the decline in the asset. Given the financial strength of the whales, this could push LTC to another rally in the coming weeks.
Litecoin price forecast – could reach the $110 mark
Santiment’s Market to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) shows that investors who bought Litecoin in the last 30 days made a 10% profit. According to historical MVRV readings, LTC holders have often captured profits of around 20%. This means that the $100 level is likely to be the next resistance zone.
If the price of the asset can combine above $100, the coin may continue its upward movement towards $115. However, bears can reverse the situation if the LTC falls below $80. With further declines, LTC could fall back below $70.
Early we reported that China intends to work with crypto-businesses through Hong Kong.
China intends to work with crypto-businesses through Hong Kong
Hong Kong subsidiaries of major Chinese banks began to provide services for local cryptocurrency firms involved in projects related to Bitcoin, altcoins and various startups. It was reported by Bloomberg, citing sources in the region.
It is alleged that the local branches of Bank of Communications, Bank of China and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank have begun, or are working to provide banking services to crypto-businesses. According to the publication, a representative of an unnamed Chinese bank even visited the office of a crypto firm to promote the services of the financial institution. A top manager of an unnamed large Chinese bank said in a media commentary that banks promote their services in Hong Kong due to the tacit approval of Beijing. The interest in the business is also due to the uncertainty around lending to the local market, they said.
Loyal attitude to the market of cryptocurrencies in Hong Kong has already “bounced back” to local investors with considerable losses. According to calculations by local law enforcement agencies, the region lost over $200 million in 2022 alone. 2,336 cases of crypto-fraud were registered in Hong Kong in 2022.
However, Chinese authorities’ interest is not limited to the crypto market. In early March, the South China Morning Post reported that China intends to stimulate the digitalization of the economy in Hong Kong with its own currency. The authorities are offering citizens a 20% discount for making payments in digital yuan. At the same time, the promotion is valid only for Hong Kong citizens and only in the southern technology center of Shenzhen (connecting China and Hong Kong).
Recall that in the fall of 2022, Hong Kong authorities announced plans to develop a cryptocurrency market in the region. According to the Hong Kong government’s website, the authorities will work with local regulators to create “favorable conditions” for developing the local cryptocurrency industry.
Early we reported that Cryptotraders lost more than $250,000,000 in liquidations after Fed rate hike.
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