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Bitcoin news before Fed meeting — what trader needs to know?

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Bitcoin started the new week with a fall. Quotes are testing the strength of the 21,900 level, which served as support. Whether it will hold or not is doubtful, because of the Fed meeting this week, which is expected to raise interest rates.

Fed meeting and bitcoin — what to expect? Technically, the major cryptocurrency has two possible scenarios right now. The first is a recovery if the support of 21,900 holds. The target remains at the level of $25,000 per coin. The second is a return to the 18,900 — 21,900 range and a decline towards its support.

Bitcoin price and Fed meeting — be careful, or what is the connection?

What effect will the Fed meeting have on bitcoin prices? On July 27, the Fed is expected to decide on interest rates. Not only will the fact of raising will matter, but also the rhetoric regarding inflation and the central banks’ further plans for monetary policy.

The cryptocurrency market, as we have seen before, does not like tight monetary policy, and expensive money in a collapse of the crypto market will not help the demand for digital assets. And while technical benchmarks are important and described above, the encouraging predictions of analyst PlanB, creator of his own method for analyzing the crypto market, is worthy of interest.

The analyst noted that the speed at which bitcoin bounced back from its 200-week moving average this month could be one of the drivers missing from similar bearish phases.

Fed meeting and bitcoin: Small buyers take the lead

A recent study by crypto analytics firm Arcane Research noted that cumulative institutional sales reached more than 236,000 BTC during the May 12 Terra/LUNA crash.

Meanwhile, data from another analytics platform, Glassnode, measures that the number of market participants owning amounts of 1 BTC or less has grown faster than ever in the total BTC supply. This trend accelerated sharply in 2022.

Fed meeting: Falling amount of crypto assets under management

While the crypto market rebounded unabashedly last week, the total value of global crypto assets under management (AUM) fell to $30.2 billion last week. And that’s despite a weekly inflow of $30 million. Bitcoin has seen a significant drop in the value of BTC assets under management during the current crypto-winter period.

A CoinShares report shows that international digital asset managers currently hold $19.3 billion in BTC assets. In November 2021, asset management companies owned more than $40 billion in bitcoin assets.

Investment products associated with other crypto-assets, such as Ethereum, BNB and Litecoin, have also run into serious problems over the past eight months.

Regarding annual performance, Ethereum investment products suffered the most. ETH has experienced a record $316 million in outflows since the beginning of 2022.

BNB came in second with an outflow of $22 million. Because of the latest price drop, the total value of ETH’s global assets under management is now about $7 billion, down from nearly $20 billion in November 2021.

Will the Fed regulate Bitcoin: what’s happening to liquidity in the market

A recent weekly CoinShares report noted that inflows into digital assets last week totaled $27 million, compared with a late-week transaction report that adjusted inflows from $12 million to $343 million the previous week. This was the largest inflow for the week since November 2021.

Current inflows were $394 million and total assets under management (AuM) returned to early June 2022 levels of $30 billion. Bitcoin inflows last week were $16 million, with the previous week’s inflows adjusted to $206 million, the largest inflow in a week since May 2022.

The research firm emphasized that Switzerland accounted for most of the recent weekly inflows. Germany and the U.S. accounted for inflows of $8 million and $9 million, respectively.


Cryptocurrency

Mounting Evidence of Ethereum’s Struggles: Volatility, ETF Losses, Weak Demand

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Ether’s price has been struggling to break above the $2,750 resistance level, despite rising by over 44% this month.

Now, several evidence point to the altcoin’s struggles throughout the 2023-25 cycle, which revealed both volatility and capital flow patterns that contrast sharply with prior cycles and competitor assets like Bitcoin and Solana.

Ethereum Faces Significant Headwinds

One of the most notable indicators is Ether’s realized volatility, which has compressed across cycles as the asset’s size grows, currently hovering around 80%, down from over 120% in earlier periods, according to Glassnode’s latest report.

Typically, Ether’s 3-month realized volatility rises during bull markets and falls during bearish trends. However, this cycle has defied that pattern. In fact, after reaching 60% at the mid-2024 peak of roughly $4,000, realized volatility surprisingly climbed above 90% even as the price declined toward $1,500. This atypical increase in volatility amid falling prices signals increased market uncertainty and instability.

Moreover, while the drawdown structure in this cycle generally aligns with the typical Ether bull market pattern – where corrections of 40% or more from local peaks are common – the key deviation lies in the absence of a fresh ATH price for the altcoin, unlike Bitcoin and Solana, both of which set new peaks in this cycle. This lack of a new high has been a disappointment for many investors who expected the world’s second-largest crypto asset to track more closely with its peers.

Additionally, Ether’s downside price movements have been unusually volatile, with multiple drawdowns exceeding 40% and the current 2025 drawdown peaking at an unusually severe 65.4%. While previous cycles have seen similar or worse drawdowns, they tended to occur later in the cycle. As such, this early, steep correction suggests structural weaknesses unique to this period.

In terms of capital inflows, the Realized Cap – a measure of the value of all Ether based on the price at which coins last moved – has increased by only 38% since the cycle low in January 2023, growing from $176 billion to $243 billion.

This pales in comparison to the massive growth during the 2021 cycle, which saw more than a 1,000% increase. The relatively muted capital inflow of approximately $67 billion during this cycle underlines weaker liquidity support and helps explain the crypto asset’s subdued price performance.

Supporting this narrative, trade activity on major centralized exchanges has mirrored these trends: spot volume, which peaked at $14.7 billion per day during the $4,000 price high in December 2024, plunged by roughly 80% to $2.9 billion per day. Though recent trading volumes have rebounded to $8.6 billion daily, spot volumes have yet to establish new cycle highs, as seen with previous cycles.

Average ETH ETF investor Substantially Underwater

The firm’s analysis further revealed that the average investor in the BlackRock and Fidelity Ethereum ETFs is currently facing an unrealized loss of approximately 21%. Net outflows from these ETFs have tended to accelerate whenever Ethereum’s spot price drops below the average cost basis, observed during important declines in August 2024 and again in January and March 2025.

Despite initial excitement, the ETFs accounted for only around 1.5% of spot market trade volume at launch, pointing to a lukewarm reception. While this rose to over 2.5% in November 2024, it has since reverted back to 1.5%.

While the current market conditions reveal mounting pressure for the crypto asset, certain market experts also predict that it could hit the $3,000 mark as early as June.

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Crypto Markets Shed $200B in 48 Hours as Bitcoin Dumps to 12-Day Low (Weekend Watch)

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Perhaps driven by the latest escalation of tensions between the US and China, bitcoin’s price has tumbled over the past 12 hours to a multi-week low of $103,000.

The altcoins have it even worse, with massive price drops from the likes of SUI, LINK, DOGE, SOL, ADA, and more. CRO has defied the market-wide trend with a double-digit price surge.

BTC Dumps to $103K

Ever since it skyrocketed to almost $112,000 last Thursday to chart a new all-time high, bitcoin’s price has been unable to recapture or even sustain its momentum. It started to fall on the next day when US President Trump recommended a new set of tariffs against the EU.

Although he delayed their implementation for over a month, BTC failed to bounce off decisively and was stopped at around $110,000 on a couple of occasions. The latest rejection, which came on Thursday at $109,000, was the worst one (for now) as it drove BTC down to $105,000.

It recovered some ground to $106,000 yesterday, but the bears reemerged and pushed the cryptocurrency south to a 12-day low of just over $103,000. This decline transpired after Trump said China “violated” the trade agreement between the two, while Beijing responded kindly.

Although BTC has regained some ground and now sits above $103,500, its market cap has slid to $2.06 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts has shot up to 61.3%.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

Alts Bleed Out, Not CRO

The alternative coins have marked some big losses over the past day. Ethereum is close to breaking below $2,500 after a 4.5% drop. XRP has plunged beneath $2.15, while DOGE, SOL, ADA, SUI, LINK, and AVAX have plummeted by up to 9%.

The situation with the lower-cap alts is even more painful, as many, such as ENA, INJ, VIRTUAL, and PEPE, have charted double-digit price declines.

CRO is the only exception, having gained 17% in the past day and trading close to $0.11.

The total crypto market cap has seen roughly $200 billion gone in the past two days and is down to $3.360 trillion.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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NFT Lending Tanks 97%: Can The Sector Find a New Life?

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Following a brief wave of optimism in early 2024, the NFT lending market has drastically slowed. As of May 21, 2025, loan volumes have dwindled to just over $50 million – a steep 83% drop since January and a staggering 97% from the January 2024 high. At its peak, activity surged with platforms like Blur’s Blend and NFTfi attracting traders eager to access liquidity without selling their NFTs.

Today, however, interest has faded, which signals that the hype around NFT lending has lost its appeal amid current market realities.

NFT Lending In Crisis

The downturn in NFT lending is closely linked to the broader slump in the NFT market. Many top-tier collections have seen their floor prices plunge over 50% from peak levels, eroding the value of collateral and, in turn, lending activity. While a handful of projects have bucked the trend, they remain rare exceptions unable to revive the sector.

Loan durations averaged 31 days in May, maintaining a consistent trend seen throughout 2024 and into 2025. This figure is notably shorter than the 40-day average observed in 2023, which, according to DappRadar’s report, hints at a shift in borrower behavior toward shorter, more strategic use of liquidity, rather than longer-term commitments.

The average NFT loan in May 2025 was just $4,000, a steep decline from $14,000 in May 2024 and $22,000 in early 2022, which represents a 71% yearly drop. It suggests borrowers are either using less valuable NFTs or avoiding heavy leverage. The user base has collapsed too: active borrowers and lenders have fallen nearly 90% and 78%, respectively, since their January 2024 peak.

Reigniting The Sector

For NFT lending to regain momentum, new drivers are essential. DappRadar stated that integrating real-world asset (RWA) NFTs – like real estate or yield-generating tokens – could provide stronger, more reliable collateral.

Simplified, intent-based interfaces that match loan terms to user needs may reduce complexity and attract more users.

Additionally, evolving beyond traditional peer-to-peer lending toward smarter infrastructure, including undercollateralized options, credit profiling, and AI-based risk tools, could elevate the ecosystem and make NFT lending a more viable and scalable financial service.

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