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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC May Drop to $68K if $80K Support Fails

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Bitcoin continues to hover near the $82,000–$85,000 range as buyers struggle to regain momentum, while key on-chain data hints at interesting underlying dynamics.

Technical Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC is attempting to defend the $80K support zone after another rejection from the $88,000 resistance and the 200-day moving average nearby, which now acts as a dynamic barrier. The price remains range-bound between $80,000 and $88,000, with no clear directional resolution yet.

The RSI has also pulled back below the midline after failing to break above 60, showing a lack of strong momentum. Buyers need to see a confirmed daily close above $88,000 to invalidate the recent lower highs and reattempt the $92,000 level. On the downside, any clean break below $80,000 may open the path toward $74,000 and even $68,000.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, BTC was recently rejected sharply from the red resistance zone around $88,000 after consolidating below it for several days. This strong rejection, followed by a swift drop back into the $82K range, indicates short-term supply remains strong.

Moreover, the RSI has cooled off from overbought levels and is now trending near 40, suggesting a loss in bullish momentum. For now, $80,000 remains the line in the sand, while the area between $86,500–$88,000 continues to cap upside attempts. A break from either side of this range is likely to trigger the next impulsive move.

On-Chain Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi

Miner Reserve (EMA 30)

The Miner Reserve continues its long-term decline, marking one of the most sustained distribution trends by miners in years. This steady sell-side pressure from miners suggests they’ve been taking profit consistently throughout the rally, with the reserve now at multi-year lows near 1.81M BTC.

While this persistent reduction hasn’t caused a structural breakdown in price, it does add a layer of supply pressure that could weigh on rallies, especially if retail demand softens. It also implies miners may be expecting lower prices or simply preparing liquidity ahead of the halving, making this a key metric to monitor in the coming weeks.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

Cryptocurrency

Solana Whales Dump SOL Amid Major Token Unlock 

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“Many whales unstaked and dumped SOL today,” reported blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain on April 4.

It highlighted four transactions of over $3 million worth of the Solana native token, the largest of which was a whopping 258,646 SOL worth around $30 million.

The Solana selloff has been a result of the meme coin bubble bursting as the asset has dumped by 60% in just over two months.

Major Solana Unlock

There was also around $200 million worth of Solana being unlocked on April 4, which is adding to the selling pressure. Arkham Intelligence said it “marks the largest single-day unlock of staked SOL until 2028.”

CoinNess Global reported that 425,266 SOL, valued at $50 million, was unlocked, and 284,147 SOL, worth $33 million, had been transferred to the exchanges Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase.

Solana token unlocks refer to events when previously locked SOL becomes available for trading, often due to vesting schedules or liquidation processes. The most recent significant unlock occurred in March when 11.2 million tokens worth $1.3 billion were released from the FTX bankruptcy estate.

Token unlocks are generally bearish in the short term because they increase the circulating supply, which is currently 514 million for Solana.

Fintech firm Ripple also unlocked $1 billion worth of its XRP token this week, adding to selling pressure as the asset dipped below $2 on April 3.

Other recent major token unlocks include Sui, and its price has tanked almost 10% today.

SOL Price Tanks

SOL prices have declined by over 4% on the day, which is a larger loss than the wider market. The asset fell to $112 in an intraday low before recovering to trade around $118 at the time of writing.

SOL has tanked by more than 16% over the past week, while the wider crypto market has only declined by 6.5%. This suggests that SOL is being dumped at a much faster rate than Bitcoin and other altcoins.

The Solana blockchain is primarily used for memecoin minting and trading, and now that this bubble has burst, activity and network revenue for the ecosystem have slumped. This has resulted in SOL prices crashing to their lowest levels in over a year.

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Good News for Ripple Investors: Is XRP Preparing for a Rebound?

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TL;DR

  • Ripple’s ability to defend from a price drop below the critical support at $2 could be a proper entry signal.
  • The narrative is also supported by a popular technical indicator, which just flashed a buy signal.

The past week didn’t go well for the fourth-largest cryptocurrency, which is down by over 6% within this timeframe. Thursday evening was a particularly painful trading period for the asset as Trump’s latest tariffs pushed it south to a three-week low of $1.96.

This meant that XRP had lost roughly 25% of its value since March 19, when it peaked at $2.6 after the announcement by Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, that the lawsuit against the US SEC had effectively ended.

Nevertheless, the cross-border token reacted well to the brief slip below the key support line at $2 and bounced off above it almost immediately. The past 12 hours or so have been more promising as XRP now trades at $2.1.

Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the importance of the $2 support numerous times in the past, warning that XRP could slump to $1.2 if it breaks to the downside. Now that it managed to defend the asset, it could be the propeller of another rally.

Martinez substantiated his position by mentioning the TD Sequential – a metric that shows the market exhaustion in either direction. According to the analyst, the technical indicator had flashed a buy signal on the daily after XRP held above $2, which could trigger a trend reversal and lead to upcoming gains.

This prediction is in stark contrast to the concerning developments around ADA and LINK, where whales had started to offload substantial portions of both assets.

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Disturbing News for Cardano (ADA) and Chainlink (LINK) Investors: Details

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TL;DR

  • Chainlink and Cardano whales have begun offloading substantial portions of their assets in the past few weeks.
  • Although both altcoins are slightly in the green on a daily scale, their weekly and monthly performances are quite concerning.

Large market participants, known as whales, are a crucial part of the cryptocurrency industry as they can bend prices depending on their behavior – big purchases typically lead to upcoming gains, and vice versa.

In the case of LINK and ADA, these investors were stacking up big time after the US elections in early November and ahead of Trump’s inauguration in mid-January. Their consecutive purchases managed to push LINK above $30 for the first time in over three years, while ADA’s peak during this cycle came at over $1.3.

However, both of those multi-year records came in December. Since then, the two cryptocurrencies, as well as most of the market, have been in a state of a freefall. ADA is down by roughly 50% and sits at $0.66 now, while LINK has slumped by 57% to $13.

These declines could be linked again to whales and their change in attitude. In the case of LINK, they have offloaded more than 170 million tokens in less than a month, which have a whopping USD value of $2.2 billion, according to today’s prices.

According to Ali Martinez, a popular analyst with over 130,000 followers, LINK has now broken a ‘crucial trendline’ that held its price for nearly two years.

The landscape around Cardano is not that much brighter. After the March sell-off, ADA whales kept disposing of their assets by selling another 120 million tokens (valued at $80 million) in just two days at the start of April.

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