Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The 2 Most Probable Scenarios For BTC in the Short Term

Bitcoin’s price remains in a state of indecision, confined within a tight consolidation range bounded by the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
An impending breakout from this range will likely determine the asset’s short-term direction.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
Bitcoin has been stuck in a multi-month consolidation between the $55K-$71K price range since March 2024, with no clear trend or direction emerging.
This prolonged period of sideways movement indicates an overall equilibrium between buyers and sellers, with accumulation occurring at the lower end of the range and distribution at the top. Despite this, a bearish sign has recently appeared as Bitcoin broke below the 200-day moving average at $63.4K.
However, the downward momentum was halted upon reaching the 100-day moving average at $61K, where the price has since entered a phase of low-volatility consolidation.
Bitcoin is squeezed within a narrow range, constrained by the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This suggests that an impending breakout could determine its short-term direction. A decisive move outside this range would likely signal the next major trend.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, an ascending wedge pattern has formed during the recent prolonged consolidation phase. The price has been oscillating between this wedge’s upper and lower boundaries, which typically points to a continuation of the initial bearish trend if it breaks downward.
Following increased selling pressure near the 0.786 Fibonacci OTE level, Bitcoin experienced a significant rejection, causing the price to cascade toward the wedge’s lower boundary.
BTC is consolidating after receiving support at this level, but sellers aim to break below the wedge’s lower trendline, which coincides with the $60K support region. Should this breakdown occur, the next critical target for Bitcoin will be the $58K support region.
On-chain Analysis
By Shayan
One key on-chain metric for understanding Bitcoin market behavior is the realized price UTXO age bands. This metric highlights the average price at which holders acquired their coins, broken down by how long they’ve held them.
Historically, the realized price in the 3-6 months (short-term) and 6-12 months (long-term) cohorts have served as critical support or resistance levels. When Bitcoin struggles to break above the average buy price of these groups, it often signifies a bearish trend. Conversely, if the cryptocurrency can break above this realized price, it suggests growing bullish momentum, as new buyers are willing to hold even at higher levels.
At present, Bitcoin’s price is hovering between the realized prices of these two groups:
- $64K for the short-term holders (3-6 months)
- $55K for the long-term holders (6-12 months)
Bitcoin recently surged toward the 3-6 month holders’ realized price of $64K, indicating a test of this key resistance level. A successful breakthrough above this level could signal upward momentum and potentially continue the bullish trend. However, if Bitcoin fails to break above this zone, it may suggest renewed selling pressure from short-term holders, leading to bearish retracements toward the $55K level.
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.
Cryptocurrency
Ripple Taps The Oldest US Bank to Custody RLUSD

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY Mellon) continues to serve as a global partner for different cryptocurrency-related initiatives, and the latest involves Ripple and its recently launched stablecoin.
According to a press release by the company, the oldest bank in the US will serve as a custodian for RLUSD.
The statement reads that both parties are “jointly committed to paving the way for digital asset adoption at institutional scale, and together, are bridging the gap between traditional finance and crypto.”
RLUSD saw the light of day at the end of last year when the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) gave the green light. It’s now one of the few global stablecoins issued under the agency’s Trust Company Charter.
It is pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio, and it is backed by “high-quality liquid assets,” the company stated. Unlike other stablecoins, RLUSD is not focused on retail engagement. Instead, it has been “purpose-built for enterprise utility, particularly in improving the speed, cost, and efficiency of cross-border payments.”
“As primary custodian for RLUSD, we’re proud to support the growth of digital assets by providing a differentiated platform, designed to meet the evolving needs of institutions in the digital assets ecosystem,” commented Emily Portney, Global Head of Asset Servicing at BNY.
In addition to the collaboration for RLUSD custody, Ripple will also utilize BNY’s transaction banking services to “underpin its operations and continue delivering seamless solutions for its customers.”
BNY was one of the first US banks to dip its toes in the cryptocurrency market years ago, well before the country’s political and regulatory landscape became as favorable as it is now. Since the early COVID days, the institution has launched several BTC and crypto-related products and provides custody to certain digital asset firms, such as Grayscale.
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Cryptocurrency
Ripple (XRP) Eyes Breakout After 32-Week Hold Pattern

TL;DR
- XRP completes a 32-week consolidation, matching the 2017 pattern that led to an explosive breakout.
- Futures open interest hits $5.17B, with traders betting big on near-term XRP momentum.
- Tight Bollinger Bands suggest volatility ahead; the past setup led to a 600% price pump.
XRP Price Trends Higher Amid Low Volume
Ripple (XRP) was trading at $2.34 as of Wednesday, posting a 2.4% gain in the last 24 hours. This follows a rise from $2.26 and extends the asset’s weekly gain to 6.48%. Its total market capitalization now stands at approximately $137.4 billion.
Meanwhile, trading volume has dropped 42.4% in the same period, with $2.58 billion in tokens changing hands. Lower volume during a price rise can signal weaker conviction, though the overall trend remains positive. The 24-hour trading range sits between $2.26 and $2.34.
Technical Setup Mirrors 2017 Pattern
According to trader @Ripplesinwales, XRP’s price has completed a 32-week consolidation period. This pattern matches a similar formation that occurred in 2017, which preceded a sharp breakout in week 33.
$XRP has been in a 32 week consolidation
Same duration consolidation occurred in 2017
Week 33 could be explosive pic.twitter.com/HImaSFLhbp
— Ripples ☠️ (@Ripplesinwales) July 9, 2025
Chart data confirms the token is moving out of a long-term symmetrical triangle, a structure that often leads to a directional move. Volume has shown small signs of picking up. This has led traders to monitor the next few sessions closely as a potential breakout window.
Futures Market Open Interest Nears Record
Open interest in XRP futures reached $5.17 billion, marking a 3.07% increase and the highest reading since January. This surge brings XRP’s open futures positions near their previous all-time high. The metric has risen 33% since the June 22 low, showing stronger interest in derivatives markets.
In addition, Coinglass data indicates that open interest peaked at 800 million XRP before settling slightly lower at 743 million. Futures open interest reflects how much capital is deployed in active positions, and growth in this area suggests that traders are positioning for possible larger moves.
As previously reported by CryptoPotato, Steph Is Crypto pointed out that XRP’s Bollinger Bands have recently tightened. The last time the asset saw this setup, it resulted in a 600% price move.
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Cryptocurrency
Why Is AAVE Pumping? $1T Borrow Target Fuels Rally

TL;DR
- AAVE gains 14% in 7 days as cumulative borrows edge toward the $1 trillion mark.
- Aave dominates DeFi with 22% of total TVL, surpassing Lido in protocol share.
- The price nears $300 as technical indicators show strength, trading above the Bollinger midline with rising volatility.
- Analyst says AAVE’s timing aligns with monthly pivot pattern, keeping bulls on alert.
AAVE Approaches Major Borrowing Threshold
Aave (AAVE) was trading at roughly $300 at press time, reflecting a 6.41% increase in the past 24 hours. Over the last 7 days, the price has gained 14.16%, with a market capitalization of approximately $4.54 billion based on a circulating supply of 15 million tokens.
Trading volume has also picked up, with $494.6 million recorded in the last 24 hours. The current daily range is between $280.39 and $300.84, showing sustained interest and strong upward movement from traders and investors.
Consequently, Aave’s total cumulative borrow volume has reached $775 billion, according to a recent update from the protocol. “Trillions next,” the Aave account posted on X, suggesting continued growth and borrowing activity on the platform.
Hit $775B cumulative borrows.
Trillions next. pic.twitter.com/B8dnowP7i1
— Aave (@aave) July 8, 2025
DeFi analytics platform DefiLlama reports that Aave now represents 22% of total DeFi TVL and 46% of TVL within the lending sector. The current TVL across all DeFi platforms stands at $26.426 billion. Aave leads with the largest share, overtaking Lido, which has seen a decline in its dominance within the staking category.
Technical Setups Show Bullish Strength
Looking at the daily chart, AAVE is currently trading near the upper Bollinger Band. The bands are expanding, indicating increased volatility and the possibility of a continued trend. The price remains above the midline of $266.38, a sign that bullish pressure is still active.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is at +0.10, pointing to mild positive inflows. A reading above zero reflects buying activity, though current strength remains moderate. If CMF rises further, it could support a stronger move upward.
Analyst Sees Monthly Timing Patterns Align
Crypto analyst Jip Molenaar noted that AAVE often forms its first monthly pivot in the first six days.
“Around 58% of months the last 5 years form the first pivot early,” they said.
The second pivot usually appears during the final nine days, which could align with the current market setup.
Meanwhile, with more than two weeks left in the month, traders are watching closely. The price action around this timing window may help define the next direction as AAVE edges closer to key resistance at the $300–$310 zone.
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