Bitcoin price (BTC) is in a “transitional phase” – Glassnode
The Bitcoin price (BTC) has been falling since mid-February. But that doesn’t mean the bull market should be forgotten – according to onchain data, the asset is now in a transitional phase.
In a March 6 report, Glassnode analysts noted that bitcoin has been pushed back from a lot of psychological levels. In their opinion, this was due to the actions of whales and old BTC holders. At the moment, the asset is trading in a narrow range with very little volume.
Bitcoin rate forecast – Bitcoin markets still weak
Glassnode notes that the $23,500 level serves as an important psychological barrier. A price break above that level will return most investors to the profit zone. According to the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator, BTC holders now have a net unrealized gain of about 15% of market value.
The NUPL onchain indicator is used to calculate the profit or loss of all coins in circulation. It can be calculated as the difference between total and realized market capitalization followed by dividing the result by the first value. The NUPL demonstrates whether the value of all coins was higher or lower compared to the last move if they had all been sold today. Negative values (below zero) indicate that the market is in the cumulative loss zone, and vice versa.
Analysts stressed that the current state of the market definitely resembles the phase which usually takes place in the late stages of a bear cycle and drew attention to the growing volume of transfers, which can be regarded as a sign that investors are returning to the market.
Monthly remittance volume has jumped 79% to $9.5 billion per day since the beginning of January. But it is still below the annual average. A break above the 356-day, 30-day moving average would signal a massive influx of institutional capital.
What’s going on with the BTC price
The price of bitcoin has been virtually unchanged since March 3, when it fell more than 5% in one hour. The asset has made a couple of breakouts above $22,500 in those few days, but they have been unsuccessful. At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading at $22,448. However, things may change after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee today.
Earlier we reported that the owner of bitcoin ATMs in the U.S. is suspected of fraud.
US Bitcoin supply fell over 10% in the past year
Bitcoin is increasingly active in Asia as U.S. supply share dwindles over the past two years. Bitcoin abandoned the United States during the 2022 bear market, new research suggests. In a tweet on June 8, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode revealed some surprising conclusions about who is now using Bitcoin.
BTC supply moves to Asia
The past year has seen some seismic shifts in where Bitcoin is held and traded. In its latest analysis of the BTC supply, Glassnode measured its migration around the world — notably, away from the U.S. and toward Asia. Since mid-2022, the amount of the supply held and traded by U.S. entities has decreased by more than 10%.
At the same time, Europe’s share has stayed roughly equal, translating to a redistribution from west to east.
“A clear divergence is visible in the year-over-year BTC supply change based on geographical regions. The extreme dominance of US entities in 2020-21 has clearly reversed, with US supply dominance falling by 11% since mid-2022,” Glassnode researchers commented.
“European markets have been fairly neutral over the last year, whilst a significant increase in supply dominance is visible across Asian trading hours.”
The metric used to measure the phenomenon, Year-over-Year Supply Change, is a probabilistic tool that makes assumptions over BTC supply ownership based on the time at which it moves.
“Geolocation of Bitcoin supply is performed probabilistically at the entity level. The timestamps of all transactions created by an entity are correlated with the working hours of different geographical regions to determine the probabilities for each entity being located in the US, Europe, or Asia,” Glassnode explains in its guidance notes.
TheYear-over-year Supply Change shows the U.S. share beginning to decline in March 2021 but accelerating beginning in May this year.
Coinbase CEO says U.S. must “seize” crypto opportunities
The findings come as the geopolitical landscape around crypto sees major upheaval of its own. Hong Kong began allowing exchanges to offer trading this month, while in the West, U.S. legal proceedings against major exchanges marked something of a watershed moment for the industry.
In an opinion piece for MarketWatch, Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase — one of the targets of the legal action — warned that poor regulation would disadvantage the United States.
“Smart—and bespoke—regulation in the 1990s and early 2000s enabled the U.S. to define the Internet Age,” he wrote.
“Just like then, now is the time for Congress to seize the historic opportunity presented by crypto, and pass comprehensive legislation that safeguards consumers and fosters innovation.”
On the topic of Hong Kong, Armstrong added that China pushing the crypto narrative was “no surprise.”
Gary Gensler: Crypto market is like 1920s stock market, full of ‘fraudsters’
Gensler argued that securities laws helped prevent stock market scams once they were passed in the 1930s and can benefit the crypto market of today.
In a June 8 speech at the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Fintech Conference, United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler compared the current crypto market to the 1920s U.S. stock market, saying that it is full of “hucksters,” “fraudsters” and “Ponzi schemes.” Just as Congress cleaned up the stock market by enacting securities laws, the current SEC can also clean up the crypto market by applying these laws, he argued.
In the talk, Gensler praised the Securities Act of 1933 and Securities Exchange Act of 1934, claiming that these laws allowed the U.S. securities markets to “thrive” over the next 88 years. He argued that the “crypto securities markets” of today should also benefit from these laws, as they are not “less deserving of the protections” the laws provide.
Pointing to a court ruling against Telegram Open Network, Gensler argued that crypto asset securities are not exempt from securities laws even if they have utility.
“Some promoters of crypto asset securities contend that their token has a function beyond simply being an investment vehicle,” Gensler stated. “As the courts in the Telegram case and others have said, however, some additional utility does not remove a crypto asset security from the definition of an investment contract.”
This means that crypto security exchanges must comply with securities laws, including the requirement to separate “the exchange, broker-dealer and clearing functions,” Gensler stated. In his view, this separation “helps mitigate the conflicts that can arise with the commingling of such services.”
Gensler denied that this separation isn’t possible, saying that separating these three functions simply requires work.
The SEC head argued that the current crypto market is rife with scams that have arisen because of the industry’s lack of compliance with securities laws, stating:
“With wide-ranging noncompliance, frankly, it’s not surprising that we’ve seen many problems in these markets. We’ve seen this story before. It’s reminiscent of what we had in the 1920s before the federal securities laws were put in place. Hucksters. Fraudsters. Scam artists. Ponzi schemes.”
The solution, in Gensler’s view, is to make sure that crypto securities issuers comply with the law. This is because these scams are “more likely to happen in markets whose issuers and intermediaries fail to comply with foundational laws.”
As chair of the SEC, Gensler has been heavily criticized within the crypto industry, especially since the SEC filed lawsuits against crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase. Critics say he has an overly expansive view of the SEC’s regulatory authority and is driving innovation out of the U.S.
Binance vs. SEC: How low can BNB price go?
BNB is clinging on to its short-term bullish bias amid the Binance-SEC fiasco, but a 30% price decline is still on the cards.
The market capitalization of BNB has dropped by more than $7 billion since June 5, when the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Binance.
BNB price eyes technical bounce
The impact of the SEC lawsuit on Binance has been substantial so far, with BNB down nearly 15% week-to-date.
On June 6, the SEC requested the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia to freeze Binance’s U.S. assets worldwide. The order, if passed, will likely force the exchange to repatriate “fiat currency and crypto assets deposited, held, traded, and accrued by customers” at its U.S. platform.
Meanwhile, Binance’s U.S. entity halted trading for several pairs, including Bitcoin, Tether and BUSD.
Theoretically, these events risk stirring people’s BNB buying sentiment, given it has been incorporated as a utility token in the Binance ecosystem.
However, technicals paint a potentially different picture, at least in the short term. The BNB/USD pair looks prepared for a short-term bounce, given it trades around a critical support level and its daily relative strength index (RSI) has entered the “oversold” region below 30.
In this case, BNB price will likely eye its descending trendline resistance point near $280 as its next upside target in June, up around 7% from current price levels.
On the other hand, BNB’s decisive close below its multimonth ascending trendline support means that $240 should be watched as a potential downside target in June. Down around 10% from current price levels, this level appears out of the rising wedge breakdown scenario (purple).
Binance’s BNB token to $180 in 2023?
Independent market analyst TraderSZ believes BNB could drop toward the 2022 low of $180 owing to the ongoing Binance-SEC battle. Interestingly, the ongoing breakdown of a descending triangle pattern for BNB price suggests the same.
Descending triangles are typically viewed as bearish continuation patterns in a general downtrend. They typically resolve when the price breaks below their lower trendline support with the price dropping by as much as their maximum height.
As a result, BNB risks falling toward its triangle target of around $180 in 2023, down around 30% from current price levels.
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