TL;DR

• Dogecoin’s price, alongside almost the entire cryptocurrency market, plunged at the end of the business week following the attacks from Israel against Iran.
• Although the asset has recovered some ground since the Friday lows, there is still a considerable threat that it could plummet by another 30% if it breaches a certain support line, according to popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez.

#Dogecoin $DOGE must hold above $0.168 to avoid a 30% price drop! pic.twitter.com/PDhqo7fpcK

— Ali (@ali_charts) June 15, 2025

The support in question is the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern, which has been formed since the early 2025 highs when DOGE’s price challenged the $0.4 level on a few occasions.

However, the largest meme coin has been unable to maintain its run and dumped hard in the following months. It bottomed in early April, during the worst period of the trade war between the US and the rest of the world, at roughly $0.13.

Its recovery since then saw DOGE go above $0.25 in May, but that was short-lived, and it’s now trading close to $0.175 following a 4.5% weekly decline and a 23% monthly decrease.

If the painful scenario outlined by Martinez materializes, DOGE’s price will tumble to a new yearly low of under $0.12.

Andrew Griffiths’s analysis also leaned toward a bearish future for the largest meme coin, as it had charted a few consecutive lower highs. He described it as an “evident sign of bearish rejection.”

#DOGE Analysis: A rising wedge has formed on the chart, breaking downwards, indicating a bearish continuation. The price tried to retest the wedge’s base (red zone), showing lower highs—an evident sign of bearish rejection. Key Zones:

Red Zone (Resistance): 0.1775–0.1780 – A… pic.twitter.com/CmyUJ3dHmb

— Andrew Griffiths (@AndrewGriUK) June 15, 2025

As geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel escalate once again, global risk appetite is taking a hit. These conflicts often inject short-term volatility across traditional and crypto markets, and Ethereum is no exception.

While ETH has held relatively steady above $2,500 in recent weeks, the growing fear in macro markets is beginning to surface in price structure and sentiment shifts.

This is a sensitive moment for traders: ETH sits on the edge of a critical range, and what happens next may hinge as much on external events as technical factors.

Technical Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

Ethereum’s daily chart shows a clear rejection from the $2,800 resistance area, which also aligns with the 200-day moving average and a bearish order block. After a strong relief rally from the $1,500 region earlier this quarter, ETH consolidated in an ascending channel pattern but is now likely to break below the lower trendline of that channel.

This structure typically signals exhaustion in bullish momentum, especially when the market fails to push higher despite favorable short-term setups. The RSI has also dropped back under the 50 mark, reflecting bearish momentum.

The price is now re-entering the mid-range zone, between $2,800 and $2,150. If Ethereum fails to reclaim $2,800 soon, the door will open for a possible move back toward the $2,150 support level, which coincides with the 100-day moving average and the top of the last major accumulation range. A bounce from there would be critical to preserve the broader bullish bias in recent months.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4H chart, the asset has broken down from the ascending channel it had been respecting for weeks. The rejection from the $2,800 order block created a sharp drop that left behind an imbalance (FVG) near the $2,600 zone, currently acting as short-term resistance. The structure now resembles a potential distribution phase, particularly if the price breaks below the channel without fresh buying pressure.

The RSI also remains weak, hovering just below 50, and shows no signs of bullish divergence. There is also a notable lack of volume on recent bounces, suggesting that demand is drying up as macro uncertainty looms. If the channel breakdown occurs, ETH could retrace toward the $2,300 demand zone. Holding that area would be crucial, as losing it could invite a deeper correction toward $2,100, where stronger bullish interest likely awaits.

Sentiment Analysis

Open Interest (OI) on Ethereum derivatives has briefly reached its highest point over the past couple of years, exceeding $21B, before experiencing a marginal drop due to the liquidity caused by the tensions in the Middle East. What makes this development even more interesting is that this surge in OI is occurring while ETH is trading significantly lower than it did the last time OI was this elevated.

This divergence typically signals a buildup of leveraged positions—both long and short—that are yet to be flushed out of the system.

Historically, such OI-price divergence often precedes large-scale liquidation events. If the market can’t generate a clean breakout soon, a volatility spike triggered by the unwinding of over-leveraged positions could happen. This aligns with the growing geopolitical risk, which could catalyze a fast repricing if global investors move to risk-off assets. In other words, derivatives are flashing a warning. Even if the price looks calm, the undercurrent is anything but stable.

It has been over a decade and a half since Bitcoin and blockchain technologies emerged. However, the cryptocurrency sector has witnessed more widespread adoption than ever before over the past year.

According to the State of Crypto 2025 report from the digital asset exchange Coinbase’s research team, small business operations and real-world use cases, like payroll and remittances from institutional investors, have been driving stablecoin growth.

U.S. Businesses Embrace Crypto

Coinbase conducted surveys for small and medium businesses (SMBs) and institutional investors in April and January 2025, respectively, for the report. The exchange found that claimed ownership of crypto is more common than people think; a rising number of institutions are working on blockchain initiatives and have included such plans in their corporate strategies.

Six in ten executives of Fortune 500 (F500) companies said their firms are building on-chain initiatives. Roughly 47% of respondents reported that their companies have increased their investment in blockchain technology. Also, the number of on-chain projects per company has risen 67% year-on-year (YoY) from 5.8 to 9.7.

The top types of on-chain initiatives seen among the F500 include payment/settlements, cross-border transfers, supply chain management, corporate treasury, and blockchain infrastructure. Coinbase found that 17 unique on-chain initiatives were announced by F100 companies last quarter and 46 between Q3 2024 and Q1 2025. There is also increased diversity from financial service and technology companies to auto and transportation, retail, food and beverage, and healthcare firms.

How Can Regulatory Clarity Help?

Examining SMBs, Coinbase found that 34% of such businesses currently use crypto; 46% of those who do not are likely to start within the next three years. At least 82% of SMBs believe crypto can address some of their financial pain points.

“2025 has been a triple-double for crypto among SMBs,” Coinbase stated, adding that the number of SMBs using crypto and stablecoins has doubled YoY.

This increased crypto adoption has driven stablecoin transfer volumes to unprecedented levels. The sector witnessed its two highest monthly organic transfer volumes in December 2024 ($719 billion) and April 2025 ($717.1 billion).

Since 2019, the number of people holding stablecoins has grown to over 160 million. Stablecoin holders have surpassed the population of the ten largest cities in the world combined and exceed the 142 million combined users of the U.S. Big Four mobile banking apps.

Meanwhile, Coinbase highlighted the role regulatory clarity could play in the full realization of crypto’s potential. Nine in ten F500 executives agree with the exchange, as well as 72% of SMBs.