Bitcoin has faced notable selling pressure at the $111K range, leading to a bearish rejection. Nevertheless, the price lacks sufficient bullish momentum and a deeper correction seems plausible in the mid-term.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

Following its breakout above the previous all-time high at $109K and printing a new peak at $111K, Bitcoin met strong resistance that has sparked notable selling pressure. The failure to sustain momentum above this key psychological level has resulted in a bearish rejection, pushing the asset back below the $109K threshold.

This price action coincided with the sweep of buy-side liquidity resting above the previous swing high, allowing smart money to execute sell orders efficiently. As a result, the market has entered a corrective phase, now approaching the daily fair value gap (FVG) between $97K and $100K. This zone likely holds substantial demand, potentially acting as a support zone that could trigger a bullish reaction.

Should the price stabilize within this FVG, a rebound toward the $111K resistance becomes likely. Conversely, failure to hold this level could pave the way for further downside, with the next key support residing near the $95K region.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, intensified selling pressure at the $111K resistance has caused BTC to break below its previously maintained ascending price channel. The subsequent pullback toward the broken channel boundary near $108K has confirmed the bearish breakout and suggests weakening momentum.

Currently, the price is consolidating within a critical support-resistance band spanning from $100K to $108K. As long as Bitcoin remains within this range, short-term volatility is expected. However, a decisive breakout, either above $108K or below $100K, will likely set the tone for the next significant move, with either a bullish recovery or an extended correction unfolding based on the breakout direction.

On-chain Analysis

The Realized Price of mid-term holders has consistently functioned as a pivotal support or resistance zone, making it a valuable indicator for gauging broader market sentiment. This metric, representing the average on-chain acquisition cost of UTXOs held by long-term investors, often aligns with key turning points in Bitcoin’s price cycle.

Currently, Bitcoin remains positioned above the Realized Price of the 3–6 month holder cohort, a signal that this group remains in profit and has not faced significant stress. However, recent selling pressure and a rejection from the $111K level have dragged the price closer to the Realized Price of the 3–6 month holder range, which resides around the $98K zone.

This places the $98K–$100K area in the spotlight as a crucial support region. A firm reaction from this zone would confirm continued confidence from mid-term holders and may act as the launchpad for a renewed bullish leg, potentially propelling Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs. Failure to hold this support, however, could shift market sentiment and open the door to deeper corrections.

The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Funnull Technology Inc., a technology firm headquartered in the Philippines, and its administrator, Liu Lizhi.

The company has been implicated in running a “pig butchering” scam.

$200M Scam Uncovered

According to the official press release, Funnull has stolen over $200 million from American investors. OFAC has also placed two of Funnull’s cryptocurrency addresses on its Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List to restrict their access to financial systems.

In response, the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) issued a public advisory, outlining key technical indicators, such as infrastructure components and IP addresses tied to Funnull’s scam operations.

Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Michael Faulkender, in an official statement, said

“Today’s action underscores our focus on disrupting the criminal enterprises, like Funnull, that enable these cyber scams and deprive Americans of their hard-earned savings. The United States is strongly committed to ensuring the continued growth of a legitimate, safe, and secure digital asset ecosystem, including the use of virtual currencies and similar technologies.”

Connection to Triad Nexus and Huione Pay

According to the findings by blockchain intelligence Chainalysis, Funnull Technology Inc. enabled cybercriminals by purchasing IP addresses in bulk from major cloud service providers and selling them to operators of fraudulent investment platforms. This infrastructure allowed scammers to host malicious websites that mimicked legitimate investment platforms, thereby deceiving victims into investing in non-existent opportunities.

Funnull was a central player in a network dubbed by security researchers as “Triad Nexus,” which includes more than 200,000 unique hostnames, many of which are associated with investment scams, fake trading apps, and suspect gambling networks. OFAC identified two crypto addresses linked to Funnull Technology Inc., used for receiving cybercriminal payments.

These addresses are tied to scam-related infrastructure and show connections to Huione Pay, which was recently flagged by FinCEN as a major money laundering concern.

Further investigation by blockchain security firm Elliptic revealed that the two addresses in question received more than $4 million in total.

Bitcoin (BTC) smashed a fresh all-time high (ATH) of $111,814 on May 22, but the party may be over, at least for now.

After rallying by more than $15,000 over the month, the king crypto has shed $9,000 in the last week alone, slipping to the $103,000 level, putting traders on edge and sparking new debate: Is this a healthy cooldown or the start of a deeper plunge?

Technical Red Flags Flashing

Volatility is back with a vengeance. In the last 24 hours, BTC has swung between $103,300 and $105,000, reflecting growing market uncertainty. Zooming out, it’s still up 9.1% in the last 30 days and 52.1% over the past year, but the momentum seems to be fading.

According to data shared by analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin just triggered four consecutive sell signals on CryptoQuant’s Net UTXO Supply ratio. “This is a typical pattern for an overheated market phase, where profit-taking occurs and demand begins to lag supply,” he warned, highlighting the red flag that often comes before short-term tops.

Further, the market watcher pointed to two possible scenarios for the asset: a sideways purgatory, with BTC drifting sideways between $95,000 and $105,000 for weeks, or a mid pullback that could see it plunge toward $92,000 in a bid to “relieve overbought conditions.”

Betting Big on Bitcoin

However, others are more optimistic, or delusional, depending on who you ask. According to BetIdeas in an email to CryptoPotato, there’s an 80% chance of BTC hitting $120,000 in 2025, and a 40% shot at $150,000.

“The volatile nature of crypto is what will always grab the headlines but with the upwards trend in May with Bitcoin being increasingly positive, it looks as though a big run for Bitcoin holders is coming,” wrote spokesman Steve McQuillan.

He stated that traders on the platform had placed a 22% chance on a run toward $200,000 before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, popular analyst Daan Crypto Trades has pointed to the zone between $97,000 and $99,000 as a key level to watch for a potential bounce, citing Fibonacci retracement levels and the 200-day moving average.

Elsewhere, Michaël van de Poppe doesn’t seem too fazed by the current goings on in the market, terming it “consolidation and correction,” which, in his opinion, is “very healthy and normal.”