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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin short-term holders ‘panic’ amid nearly 100% unrealized loss

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Bitcoin (BTC) speculators are in “panic” mode as nearly all of them are in the red, research says.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode revealed 97.5% unrealized losses among Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs).

Research warns of “non-trivial” Bitcoin sentiment slide

BTC price action in recent months has tested the resolve of investors, but none more so than those who bought BTC over the past three months.

STHs, which correspond to entities hodling coins for 155 days or less, have seen their aggregate cost basis fail as market support.

As Glassnode notes, as of Sep. 17, the cost basis for those not spending BTC is now $28,000 — around 5% above current spot price.

As part of its research, the firm separated the STH cohort into holders and spenders, discovering “a relationship between abrupt changes in implied (unrealized) profitability and the shift in spending by STHs (realized profitability).”

The result, it says, is what it calls a “non-trivial change in sentiment.”

“From this perspective, we can see that the cost basis of STHs who are spending fell below the cost basis of holders as the market sold off from $29k to $26k in mid-August,” “The Week On-Chain” explained.

“This suggests a degree of panic and negative sentiment has taken hold in the near term.”

Bitcoin STH holder and spender data annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

“A degree of panic”

The findings chime with the overall sense of caution among Bitcoin traders and analysts, with many predicting a test of lower levels still to come.

Related: What volatility? Bitcoin price dismisses FOMC, Mt. Gox with $26.7K dip

Opinion is far from unanimous, however, as optimists eye a change of fortunes for BTC price performance beginning in Q4.

As Cointelegraph reported earlier this week, meanwhile, classic sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, remains only modestly bearish at current price levels.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Nonetheless, for STHs, the threat of permanent loss appears to feel all too real.

Glassnode analysts unveiled a trend confidence metric, which subtracts spender cost basis from holder cost basis and divides by the BTC price.

“The Bitcoin market is experiencing a non-trivial shift in sentiment, with almost all Short-Term Holders now underwater on their supply,” the firm wrote in part of its conclusion.

“This has resulted in a negative shift in sentiment, with investors spending now having a lower cost basis than the rest of the cohort. This suggests a degree of panic is dominating this group, which is the first time since FTX collapsed.”

Bitcoin new investor confidence annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin to $500K, Ethereum to $20K? Analyst Forecasts a Major Crypto Surge

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Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has made a bold prediction, forecasting that the price of Bitcoin could reach $500,000, with Ethereum’s soaring past $20,000 in the coming years.

His outlook, supported by macroeconomic trends and growing institutional adoption, suggests that the crypto market is on the cusp of an unprecedented rally.

Overcoming ‘Bear Market PTSD’

Market sentiment is currently quite low following one of the biggest daily sell-offs in crypto history, which saw more than $400 billion wiped off in less than a day. However, while Van de Poppe acknowledges the bearish outlook, he argues that the market is primed for a major bull run.

According to him, a “perfect storm” is brewing, fueled by growing institutional adoption and the U.S. government’s more tolerant stance on crypto. This includes a proposal for a national digital asset stockpile. Additionally, institutions are launching crypto products providing greater market access and banks have been given the leeway to offer custody services following the SEC’s revocation of SAB 121.

Van de Poppe admitted that many investors were skeptical, still haunted by past downturns, a phenomenon he called “bear market PTSD,” which makes it hard for traders to believe in a long-term uptrend. Nonetheless, he argued that Bitcoin and Ethereum’s trajectories should not be judged by past cycles alone, especially given their increasing global adoption and the ongoing influx of institutional capital, including millions spent on crypto by an organization linked to U.S. President Donald Trump.

A shifting macroeconomic landscape could also boost crypto’s explosion. The analyst suggests that China’s economic strategy to deal with Trump’s new tariffs could create the perfect condition for altcoins to thrive.

In his opinion, the Asian giant has two options to counter the U.S.: devalue its currency to continue exporting products into the United States or focus on its own domestic market to become stronger. If it chose the second option, it would mean selling its dollar reserves, buying back the renminbi, and making it solvent.

Such a situation, in Van de Poppe’s opinion, would cause the dollar to lose some of its strength, and a weaker dollar coupled with lower yield bonds often leads to increased capital flow into digital assets.

Exponential Gains

Taking everything into consideration, Van de Poppe outlined two likely possibilities. In the blow-off top scenario, he envisions a rapid bull run, similar to the dot-com boom of the ‘90s, which could see BTC shoot up to anywhere between $300,000 and $500,000 before a sharp correction.

Ethereum would follow suit and could climb past $20,000 with the acceleration of institutional adoption, potentially powered by its new marketing initiative, Etherealize.

The second option would be an extended supercycle, leading to a slower but self-sustaining rally that could drive Bitcoin’s value towards $1 million over the next few years. ETH would also benefit from taking advantage of the expected growth of layer-2 networks and institutional DeFi integration to push to $30,000.

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Dogecoin Whales Make a Huge Move: Is DOGE’s Price Poised for a Rally?

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TL;DR

  • Large investors bought 750 million DOGE during the recent dip, potentially setting the stage for a price rebound.
  • While some analysts expect a further drop to $0.17, historical trends suggest the possibility of another explosive bull run for Dogecoin in the coming months.

Time for a Reversal?

The cryptocurrency market has suffered substantial losses in the past week, mainly due to the crash witnessed on February 3. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 6% for that timeframe but it was the altcoins that took the major hit.

The OG meme coin, Dogecoin (DOGE), was among the biggest losers, with its price plunging well below $0.30 and tanking by 21% weekly (per CoinGecko’s data).

DOGE Price
DOGE Price, Source: CoinGecko

However, it seems like whales have interpreted the downtrend as a “buy the dip” opportunity and increased their exposure to the asset. X user Ali Martinez revealed that large investors purchased 750 million tokens (worth almost $200 million) during the correction. “This is a strong sign of confidence in the market,” the analyst claimed.

Whale accumulation is often seen as a bullish signal since it could make some traders follow suit and thus trigger a potential price uptrend. The buying spree also leaves fewer assets available on the open market, meaning DOGE’s valuation might head north (assuming demand remains constant or increases).

The whales’ latest actions contrast to those at the beginning of the month. Back then, they offloaded 270 million DOGE in the span of 24 hours, which was shortly after, followed by a price decline. 

DOGE Predictions

The meme coin’s market dynamics have caused numerous people to speculate on its next potential move. The X user AMCrypto assumed that DOGE might be headed for a further decline to as low as $0.17 before rallying toward a new all-time high.

Trader Tardigrade and KALEO also chipped in recently. The former forecasted a massive bull run, citing the token’s historical performance:

“In the 2016 pullback, DOGE retraced 59.76%, followed by a +9,221% bull run. In the 2020 pullback, DOGE retraced 56.2%, followed by a +30,693% bull run. When in doubt, check the macro chart.”

KALEO was bullish, too, seeing $0.25 as “a solid entry and practically free compared to where we’ll see it a few months from now.” 

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Academic Labs to Be Listed on Bitpanda, Unveils AI-Powered Education Whitepaper 2.0

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[PRESS RELEASE – Singapore, Singapore, February 6th, 2025]

Academic Labs, a notable innovator in the education sector, has announced its listing on Bitpanda, one of Europe’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. This milestone follows the release of Whitepaper 2.0, which details advancements in its EduFi Ecosystem, built on the Solana blockchain. The whitepaper introduces the AAX Chain and the AI-Agent layer, two innovations aiming to transform education by harnessing AI and Web3 technologies. Notably, Academic Labs has demonstrated remarkable potential, with its cryptocurrency volume doubling and rising by 70% even when the market was down, indicating strong prospects for 2025.

Whitepaper 2.0 introduces two innovations: the AAX Chain and the AI-Agent layer. The AAX Chain, built on the Solana blockchain, harnesses its high-speed, low-cost, and scalable infrastructure to optimize educational resources and facilitate seamless knowledge discovery, curation, and sharing. The native AAX Token, following the SPL token standard, serves as the lifeblood of the ecosystem, enabling value exchange, governance, and incentivization.

The AI-Agent layer enhances personalized learning by leveraging the power of advanced machine learning algorithms. By analyzing large amounts of data from the Universal Library of Knowledge and the comprehensive Learner Data Layer, the AI-Agent generates adaptive learning paths, content recommendations, and targeted support, ensuring that each learner receives a tailored educational experience.

Whitepaper 2.0 also highlights the integration of decentralized identity (DID) within the Academic Labs EduFi Ecosystem. Leveraging the Solana blockchain’s capabilities, learners can create and manage their digital identities securely and transparently, empowering them to showcase their achievements and skills across various platforms while maintaining control over their educational data.

Furthermore, the whitepaper explores the incorporation of decentralized science (DeSci) and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications within the ecosystem. By tapping into Solana’s robust DeFi infrastructure, Academic Labs offers learners and educators novel opportunities to engage with tokenized assets, participate in yield farming and staking programs, and access innovative funding models for educational projects and research endeavors.

The tokenomics of the AAX Token, as detailed in the whitepaper, ensure the long-term sustainability and growth of the Academic Labs EduFi Ecosystem. With a carefully designed token allocation and unlocking schedule, the ecosystem is structured to align incentives and foster long-term commitment to the platform’s success.

Prior to Whitepaper 2.0, Academic Labs had already made steady progress in the EduFi space, launching a successful MVP, hosting hackathons and courses at top universities, and empowering various ecosystems with more than 2 million people.

The whitepaper outlines an ambitious timeline for expanding the Academic Labs EduFi Ecosystem. The platform plans to launch a suite of new products powered by AI and gamification functions in the coming months, enhancing user engagement and learning outcomes. Additionally, Academic Labs aims to secure new listing opportunities for the AAX Token across global cryptocurrency exchanges, increasing liquidity and accessibility for users worldwide.

Following the prior listing on Gate.io, on February 7th, Academic Labs will be listed on Bitpanda, one of Europe’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. This represents a key step in Academic Labs’ efforts to expand its education-focused initiatives through Web3 and AI.

With the introduction of the AAX Chain, AI-Agent layer, and the planned expansion of its product offerings and token listings, Academic Labs aims to develop AI-driven solutions for the education sector. The integration of advanced technologies, along with the platform’s existing ecosystem, supports its ongoing efforts to enhance digital learning experiences.

About Academic Labs:

Platform: https://acad.live

X: https://x.com/Acad_Labs

CoinGecko: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/academic-labs

Gate: https://www.gate.io/tr/trade/AAX_USDT

Bitpanda: https://www.bitpanda.com/en/bitpanda-spotlight

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