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Bitcoin Up 25% Since April: Expert Sees Bullish Signals in Miner Data

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Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded sharply in the last three weeks, climbing at least 25% from its April 9 low of just under $74,000 to trade above $96,500 as of early May.

The bounce has come against a backdrop of waning volatility, a drying supply of BTC on exchanges, and increasing on-chain accumulation.

Miner Metrics Signal a Bottom

Beyond the price action, Bitcoin maximalist Robert Breedlove sees a deeper story unfolding, one rooted in miner economics, long-term behavior, and global liquidity trends. According to him, BTC may be on the cusp of a major bull run, with key indicators flashing green.

In a post on X, the podcast creator spotlighted a critical metric, the average miner cost of production, which he said has historically served as a reliable indicator of market bottoms. He noted that the average miner break-even cost has often coincided with major cycle bottoms since 2016.

The premise isn’t far-fetched since assets rarely trade below their production cost in a rational market. This factor has often pushed out unprofitable miners, reducing supply and eventually pushing prices higher.

Citing data from Blockware, Breedlove stated that currently, the average market break-even line is signaling another floor, potentially setting the stage for a fresh bull run.

Another optimistic signal comes from Bitcoin’s long-term holders. These are investors who refuse to sell despite volatility. The analyst noted that over the past 30 days, such holders have accumulated an additional 150,000 BTC, creating the perfect condition for a supply shock and eventual price pump.

On-chain data shows whales purchased roughly $4 billion worth of Bitcoin in the last two weeks of April, a trend paralleled by renewed inflows into spot BTC ETFs, which saw sustained accumulation from April 17 to April 30.

Meanwhile, the amount of the flagship cryptocurrency on exchanges has fallen to a five-year low. “Bitcoin is running out of sellers in the $80K to $100K range,” Breedlove said, reinforcing the growing scarcity thesis.

Liquidity Can Spur BTC Boom

Further supporting his sunny outlook is a macroeconomic backdrop that’s becoming quite favorable for BTC. The market watcher drew attention to the cryptocurrency’s high correlation with the U.S. dollar and global fiat liquidity, a point often harped on by former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.

With central banks easing controls and rising global liquidity, the “What is Money” host expects more capital to flow into risk assets, including crypto.

According to Breedlove, the rise of ETFs, institutional custody solutions, and BTC-backed financial products has only amplified this effect, making it easier for new money to flow into crypto.

“Bitcoin is highly correlated to fiat liquidity – and that’s becoming increasingly more of the case as ETFs, Bitcoin Treasury Companies, and Convertible Bonds, provide easier access for new liquidity to enter the Bitcoin market.”

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This Surging Bitcoin Metric Suggests Altcoin Season Is Upon Us

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Following a months-long tug-of-war between bulls and bears, Bitcoin Dominance, a metric tracking BTC’s market share relative to the entire crypto market, has surged to 64%.

According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, increased dominance isn’t just a technical milestone but a precursor to a broader trend that could see the number one cryptocurrency command as much as 71% of the digital asset market.

A Reclaim with Historical Weight

Bitcoin Dominance isn’t just a percentage; it’s a pulse check on investor sentiment. When it rises, capital flows into BTC at the expense of altcoins, often indicating a “risk-off” approach or a bet on the flagship cryptocurrency as the market’s safe haven.

Rekt Capital’s analysis suggested that reclaiming 64% as support could mirror historical patterns where dominance climbed above 70%, a level last seen during Bitcoin’s 2021 bull run. “The road to 71% continues on successful retest of 64%,” the crypto investor stated.

Previously, in March and April, he outlined how BTC Dominance initially faced stiff resistance near its November 2024 highs before managing a breakthrough in late April. The successful retest of those levels into early May now marks the “final leg” of Bitcoin’s primacy, which, in the past, was followed by a sharp decline.

“Bitcoin Dominance is now in the process of positioning itself for what will most likely be its final leg in its Macro Uptrend before a major collapse,” stated the analyst.

Altcoin Season Incoming?

The expected reversal often triggers what the crypto community calls an “altcoin season.” During such periods, the rest of the digital asset market tends to outperform BTC, drawing significant investor interest.

At the time of writing, the king cryptocurrency’s share of the market stood at 63.8%, a heartbeat away from 64%. And if Rekt Capital’s prediction holds, then we could see a move to 71% within weeks, potentially setting the stage for a market rotation. ‘It is the Final Countdown,” the analyst wrote.

Bitcoin’s price has been on a sharp rebound since April when it dipped below $75,000. It is currently changing hands at $96,873, up a modest 0.6% in 24 hours and 3.2% over the past week, amid a wave of whale buying.

But not everyone is holding. As reported earlier, miners have offloaded nearly $850 million worth of BTC as they try to deal with post-halving revenue pressures.

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Bitcoin Targets $100K, Ripple Sees Setbacks on Stablecoin, ETF Fronts: Your Weekly Crypto Recap

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The past week was a lot less volatile than the events that transpired at the start of the month, when BTC’s price tumbled hard to a five-month low. In contrast, the cryptocurrency now moves in a much calmer but more positive manner.

Recall that bitcoin flew past the $90,000 milestone on April 22 and hasn’t looked back. In fact, the asset kept climbing in the following days and challenged $96,000 on a couple of occasions, but to no avail. Although it was rejected at every turn, the subsequent corrections were nowhere near as painful as the price crashes that occurred in early April.

Just the opposite; BTC began trading in a tight range between a lower boundary of $93,000 and an upper one at $96,000. It stood there for several consecutive days, as the bears tried to push it below the support line.

However, each attempt was met with immediate buying pressure, which didn’t allow another breakdown. In fact, bitcoin went on the offensive once again yesterday as its price jumped above the upper boundary and kept increasing to a new multi-month peak of over $97,000 as of now. This came as analysts highlighted the formation of a familiar pattern, which has historically led to immediate gains.

Miner data also suggests that BTC’s bull run has restarted, as bitcoin’s price recently dropped to a local bottom compared to the average miner cost of production.

For now, though, BTC remains inches above $97,000 with all eyes set on the $100,000 target. The asset is up by 3% on a weekly scale, which is better than most larger-cap altcoins, aside from ETH, HYPE, AAVE, and XMR. Perhaps that’s why its dominance continues to chart new multi-year peaks.

Market Data

Cryptocurrency Market Overview Weekly. Source: QuantifyCrypto

Market Cap: $3.133T | 24H Vol: $82B | BTC Dominance: 61.6%

BTC: $97,337 (+3%) | ETH: $1,849 (+4.2%) | XRP: $2.23 (+2%)

This Week’s Crypto Headlines You Can’t Miss

Movement Labs Suspends Co-Founder Amid Market Maker Scandal: Full Details. Rushi Manche, Movement Labs’ co-founder, was suspended by the team following revelations of a dubious market-making deal, which led to a substantial $38 million token dump.

Bitcoin’s Next Move: 3 Scenarios to Watch in 2025. Following the aforementioned impressive price rally for BTC, in which the asset gained over $20,000 within a couple of weeks, CryptoQuant laid out the three most likely scenarios to take place by the end of the year. Hint: the bearish one is the least expected.

Why Was Ripple’s $5 Billion Takeover Offer Rejected by Circle? (Report) As the title of this Market Update reads, Ripple faced some setbacks this week. One of them was the refusal of a mega deal to acquire the company behind the second-biggest stablecoin, Circle. Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg said the offer of around $5 billion was too low.

SEC Delays Decision on Spot Ripple, Dogecoin ETF Applications. The second didn’t come as such a big surprise to the community. Staying true to its tactic with the first BTC and ETH ETF applications, the US SEC delayed making a decision on Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF proposal. Bitwise’s DOGE ETF had a similar fate. The new deadlines are set for June 17 and June 15, respectively.

It’s Time to Buy Bitcoin and Altcoins: Arthur Hayes. Speaking during this week’s mega conference in Dubai (Token2049), Arthur Hayes said the real bull market is just getting started. He advised people that “it’s time to go long everything.”

$4 Billion in 2 Weeks: Bitcoin Whales Go on Massive Accumulation Spree. Perhaps following the advice from BitMEX’s former CEO, BTC whales went on a massive shopping spree in recent weeks, acquiring roughly $4 billion worth of the asset.

Charts

This week, we have a chart analysis of Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Hype, and Solana – click here for the complete price analysis.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Ethereum (ETH) Set to Rally in May? Top Price Predictions Revealed

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TL;DR

  • Industry participants reminded that May has been a historically strong month for Ethereum, with some expecting a significant surge if key resistance levels are breached.
  • ETH outflows from exchanges have increased in the last seven days, suggesting investors are moving to self-custody – often seen as a bullish sign due to reduced selling pressure.

Where Next for ETH?

The second-largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap experienced a substantial pump on a 14-day scale, rising by 16% and currently trading at over $1,800. Despite the resurgence, its overall performance in the last several months remains unsatisfactory.

The popular X user Carl Moon revealed to his 1.5 million followers on X that Ethereum (ETH) has been falling for five months in a row. In February, for instance, the price collapsed by nearly 32%.

Carl Moon, however, pointed out that May has historically been one of the most positive periods for the asset. ETH has posted losses in only three out of ten Mays throughout its history. The ongoing month has also delivered the highest average gains over the years – around 27.31%.

X user SHERIFF shared a similar thesis. They outlined that ETH bled out in seven out of the last eight months. The negative performance was also combined with low sentiment and “dead” volatility. On the other hand, these are the times when “the next big move brews,” the analyst claimed.

For his part, Merlijn The Trader made an interesting comparison between Bitcoin’s performance in 2020-2021 and Ethereum’s recent structure. He predicted a potential price explosion if “history is on our side,” adding that he’s “loading ETH.”

CRYPTOWZRD chipped in, too, projecting a potential short-term scenario. The analyst set $2,120 as the next key resistance target, envisioning “a quick move” toward $2,800 if the asset breaks through. 

Abandoning Exchanges

One factor that supports the optimistic predictions outlined above is ETH’s exchange netflow.

Outflows have dominated over inflows in the past week, signaling that investors have shifted from centralized platforms toward self-custody methods. This development is generally bullish for the price since it reduces the immediate selling pressure.

ETH Exchange Netflow
ETH Exchange Netflow, Source: CryptoQuant
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