Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin UTXOs echoing March 2020 ‘black swan’ crash — New research
Bitcoin (BTC) is recovering from a “black swan” event last rivaled by the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, data suggests.
In one of its Quicktake posts on Sep. 7, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed a major spike in loss-making unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs).
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin UTXOs in Loss “mirror” March 2020
Bitcoin may be worrying market participants with current BTC price weakness, but on-chain data paints an intriguing picture of activity “under the hood.”
UTXOs represent BTC left over after an on-chain transaction is executed. CryptoQuant’s UTXOs in Loss metric tracks when large numbers of these UTXOs are worth more than they were when the BTC was originally bought.
Currently, more of these are in loss compared to their original acquisition price than at any time since March 2020.
At the time, BTC/USD dropped 60% to its lowest levels since March 2019 — lows which were never seen again.
Considering the current data from UTXOs in Loss, CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu ventured that, like March 2020, Bitcoin may be seeing, or already bouncing back from, a curveball selling event.
He summarized:
“Given that the current level of the ‘UTXOs in loss’ indicator mirrors that of the Black Swan event between March and April 2020 (due to the Coronavirus), those anticipating another Black Swan event might want to consider whether we are already in the midst of the event they are waiting for.”
In percentage terms, 38% of UTXOs were in loss at the end of August, a figure last seen in April 2020.
“When many UTXOs are in loss, investors might be more inclined to sell, hinting at market anxiety. Conversely, when most UTXOs are profitable, it suggests an optimistic outlook and a stronger holding sentiment among investors,” Woominkyu added.
Underwater Bitcoin speculators grow
Bitcoin meanwhile remains locked in a tight range amid a lack of overall BTC price trend.
Related: Bitcoin speculators now own the least BTC since $69K all-time highs
With neither a breakout nor breakdown willing to complete, cost basis data likewise shows current spot price caught between the acquisition prices of various investor cohorts.
This “Realized Price” — the price at which the supply last moved, divided by age group — shows that short-term holders fall into aggregate loss when BTC/USD is below around $27,000.
A full capitulation event, however, has yet to be recorded on-chain.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Cryptocurrency
3 Possible Reasons Behind Ripple’s (XRP) 15% Surge Past $1.6
Ripple’s native token has been among the best performers in the crypto market in the past few days, surging by over 60% since last Saturday. Despite retracing below $1.6, it reached that level for the first time since May of 2021.
Here are some of the possible reasons behind this impressive increase.
WisdomTree’s Ripple ETP
The Europe-based crypto asset manager WisdomTree has launched its latest exchange-traded product tracking the performance of a certain cryptocurrency, this time Ripple’s XRP.
The announcement reads that the WisdomTree Physical XRP ETP, with the ticker WXRP, is already live for trading on SIX Swiss exchange in USD and Swiss francs, on Euronext Amsterdam in USD, and on Xetra and Euronext Paris in euros.
“With risk-on sentiment building, altcoin exposures like XRP could outperform a standard bitcoin and ether allocation. XRP can sit alongside these mega caps in a multi-asset portfolio and reduce investors’ exposure to a single token.
Cryptocurrencies represent more than 1 per cent of the market portfolio, and should, therefore, be a component of a well-rounded investment strategy. As an asset class with low correlation to traditional asset classes, crypto can help enhance diversification and potentially improve risk-adjusted returns in a multi-asset portfolio.” – Commented the company’s Digital Assets Research Director, Dovile Silenskyte.
Gensler’s Exit
Perhaps the most valid reason behind XRP’s increase to over $1.6 earlier today is the hype by Gary Gensler’s announcement from Thursday evening. At the time, the current SEC chair said he would leave his position on the day the president-elect, Donald Trump, is inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
Although the move was expected, given Trump’s previous promise to fire Gensler on day 1 and the fact that SEC chairs have typically left their positions after a change in the presidency, it still sent shockwaves in the crypto industry.
Due to the four-year battle between the agency and Ripple, the latter’s native token skyrocketed by over 25% within the first 12 hours after the news broke. XRP went from about $1.15 to over $1.4. However, its rally continued on the next day, as mentioned above, and Gensler’s exit remains a highly plausible reason.
Regulatory Change and ETF Hopes
Gensler quitting the SEC is only a part of the overall wave of changes that will hit the US regulators after the Republicans take office. Reports are emerging frequently these days claiming that Trump has picked pro-crypto candidates for numerous key positions in his upcoming administration.
This is also regarded bullish for the entire market, which has added more than $1.2 trillion since the elections on November 5. XRP is no exception as, alongside other assets like Solana (SOL), is expected to have its own exchange-traded fund in the US. There have been a few filings with US regulators since September and experts believe the resolution could be just months away.
With a more favorable guard at the SEC, that resolution could be quite positive for the XRP army. After all, Ripple’s CEO has frequently noted that an XRP ETF is ‘inevitable.’
Also, the “average” turnaround time to get an ETF approved is 6-12 months so, we are probably looking at some time next summer (assuming things go as expected with the appeal).
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) November 18, 2024
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Cryptocurrency
Here’s What Users Expect as Donald Trump Begins Tenure as Crypto President: Bybit
It’s been barely a few weeks since the pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump won the United States presidential elections, and the digital asset market still feels the impact of that victory. As the Trump administration prepares to take complete charge of affairs at the White House by January, crypto users anticipate what this could mean for the industry.
According to a quarterly institution report by the digital asset exchange Bybit and the crypto research firm Blocks Scholes, market participants are expecting a transformative period in the industry, with a focus on areas like heightened institutional interest, regulatory reforms, and increased value for bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins.
Trump to Provide Regulatory Clarity
Trump was previously a crypto skeptic, but he eventually turned around and centered his 2024 campaign on advocating for BTC. The U.S. president has declared that he would create clear policy and regulatory frameworks for digital assets to ensure the United States takes a leadership position in the crypto space.
Bybit and Blocks Scholes said Trump’s re-emergence as America’s first crypto president could foster an environment more conducive to innovation. Trump wants to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the planet, and his goals align with those of digital asset stakeholders.
The crypto space will likely see significant regulatory changes with a Republican majority in both chambers of the U.S. Congress. The Bybit report revealed that targeted political spending by crypto entities during the election reshaped legislative priorities, especially in key Senate races.
As pro-crypto lawmakers take office, bills like the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21 Act), which aimed to provide regulatory certainty for digital assets, could be enacted into law. The bill faced legislative challenges while passing Congress chambers.
Favorable Environment For Altcoins And DeFi
Furthermore, Trump’s win increases the potential for altcoins to gain traction even as BTC continues to dominate the market narrative. The incoming administration may cause investors to show fresh interest in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector and networks powered by smart contracts.
The Biden administration took an unfavorable stance toward DeFi and even took legal action against some decentralized entities. However, as regulatory clarity emerges, Trump’s presidency could attract increased investment in these platforms.
Meanwhile, BTC has already gained over 47% since Trump won. With the cryptocurrency about 2% away from the $100,000 mark, traders are optimistic of a continued rally in the coming months.
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Cryptocurrency
Double-Digit Price Surges From These Altcoins as BTC Was Stopped Before $100K (Weekend Watch)
Bitcoin tried and tried to break into a six-digit price territory but was stopped just inches below $100,000 and has been pushed south by around a grand.
Its dominance over the alts has slumped in the past day, as many, such as DOGE, ADA, AVAX, and DOT, have charted double-digit surges.
BTC Fails at $100K
Bitcoin had a highly positive business week, which started with a price surge to over $90,000 on Monday. After a brief retracement, the bulls returned and helped BTC chart a new all-time high of $94,000 on Tuesday.
However, that was just the start as the asset kept climbing and broke above $95,000, $96,000, $97,000, $98,000, and $99,000 by Friday.
Naturally, all eyes turned to the coveted $100,000 target, which many speculated could be broken immediately. However, the bears managed to defend that level well. As such, bitcoin failed to overcome it on Friday, even though it came just $250 away from it.
Since then, the cryptocurrency has corrected slightly and now sits below $99,000. Nevertheless, its market cap is still above $1.950 trillion, placing it as the seventh-largest asset in the world, but its dominance over the alts has taken a big hit and is down to 56% on CG.
Alts on the Rise
The declining BTC dominance means only one thing – alts are exploding. While that cannot be said about ETH, SOL, and BNB, other larger caps have charted mind-blowing surges in the past day.
As already reported, these include XRP, DOGE, and ADA, all of which have shot up to multi-year peaks. The landscape is similar for Avalanche and Polkadot, as they have skyrocketed by 22% each. AVAX now sits close to $44, while DOT is near $7.5.
Even more notable surges come from XLM (52%), ALGO (33%), and VET (31%).
The total crypto market cap reached a new all-time high earlier at over $3.5 trillion on CG.
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