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Bitcoin UTXOs echoing March 2020 ‘black swan’ crash — New research

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Bitcoin (BTC) is recovering from a “black swan” event last rivaled by the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, data suggests.

In one of its Quicktake posts on Sep. 7, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed a major spike in loss-making unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs).

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin UTXOs in Loss “mirror” March 2020

Bitcoin may be worrying market participants with current BTC price weakness, but on-chain data paints an intriguing picture of activity “under the hood.”

UTXOs represent BTC left over after an on-chain transaction is executed. CryptoQuant’s UTXOs in Loss metric tracks when large numbers of these UTXOs are worth more than they were when the BTC was originally bought.

Currently, more of these are in loss compared to their original acquisition price than at any time since March 2020.

At the time, BTC/USD dropped 60% to its lowest levels since March 2019 — lows which were never seen again.

Considering the current data from UTXOs in Loss, CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu ventured that, like March 2020, Bitcoin may be seeing, or already bouncing back from, a curveball selling event.

He summarized:

“Given that the current level of the ‘UTXOs in loss’ indicator mirrors that of the Black Swan event between March and April 2020 (due to the Coronavirus), those anticipating another Black Swan event might want to consider whether we are already in the midst of the event they are waiting for.”

Bitcoin UTXOs in loss chart. Source: CryptoQuant

In percentage terms, 38% of UTXOs were in loss at the end of August, a figure last seen in April 2020.

“When many UTXOs are in loss, investors might be more inclined to sell, hinting at market anxiety. Conversely, when most UTXOs are profitable, it suggests an optimistic outlook and a stronger holding sentiment among investors,” Woominkyu added.

Underwater Bitcoin speculators grow

Bitcoin meanwhile remains locked in a tight range amid a lack of overall BTC price trend.

Related: Bitcoin speculators now own the least BTC since $69K all-time highs

With neither a breakout nor breakdown willing to complete, cost basis data likewise shows current spot price caught between the acquisition prices of various investor cohorts.

This “Realized Price” — the price at which the supply last moved, divided by age group — shows that short-term holders fall into aggregate loss when BTC/USD is below around $27,000.

A full capitulation event, however, has yet to be recorded on-chain.

Bitcoin Realized Price chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency

Zoom Meeting Scam: Crypto Users Fall Prey to Potential Russian-linked Hackers

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Cybercriminals are once again exploiting trusted tools for malicious gains.

This time, a phishing campaign centered around fake Zoom meeting links has left victims counting massive losses in cryptocurrency.

Fake Zoom Invites Mask Malware

A recent report by blockchain security firm SlowMist detailed a sophisticated phishing campaign targeting cryptocurrency users through fake Zoom meeting links. The attack has reportedly resulted in the theft of millions of digital assets.

It involved the use of a fraudulent domain resembling the authentic one. This site mimicked the genuine Zoom interface to trick unassuming victims into downloading a malicious installation package. Once executed, the malware prompted users to enter their system passwords which enabled the collection of sensitive information such as KeyChain data, browser credentials, and cryptocurrency wallet details.

Upon analysis, SlowMist said that it identified the malware’s code as a modified osascript script. The script extracted and encrypted user data before transmitting it to a hacker-controlled server flagged as malicious by threat intelligence platforms.

The server’s IP address was traced to the Netherlands, and the attackers’ monitoring tools, including logs showing Russian script usage, suggest a connection to Russian-speaking operatives.

On-chain tracking through SlowMist’s MistTrack tool revealed that the hackers’ primary wallet amassed over $1 million, converting stolen assets into 296 ETH. Further transfers led to a secondary address which is now linked to transactions across popular crypto exchanges such as Binance, Gate.io, and MEXC. A complex network of smaller wallets and flagged addresses, including those tagged “Angel Drainer” and “Pink Drainer,” facilitated fund dispersal.

“These types of attacks often combine social engineering and Trojan techniques, making users vulnerable to exploitation. The SlowMist Security Team advises users to carefully verify meeting links before clicking, avoid executing unknown software and commands, install antivirus software, and update it regularly.”

Phishing Scams Hit Alarming Highs

There has been a surge in crypto phishing scams lately. Earlier this month, a fraudulent work meeting link sent via KakaoTalk caused a person to lose $300,000 in cryptocurrency. The malware-compromised funds were transferred to a BingX-associated wallet. The link installed malware and compromised Ethereum and Solana wallets.

Another blockchain security expert, Scam Sniffer reported over $9.4 million was lost in phishing attacks in November alone. Malicious blockchain signatures remain a top threat, as scammers exploit fraudulent transaction permissions to drain wallets, including high-profile thefts exceeding $36 million.

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Cryptocurrency

LINK Dumps by 9% Daily as BTC Falls to $94K (Weekend Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price actions at the end of the year are quite underwhelming as the asset tumbled from $97,000 to under $94,000 yesterday and is down by fourteen grand since last Tuesday’s peak.

The altcoins have suffered as well, with many violent price corrections from the likes of AVAX, LINK, SUI, and others.

BTC’s Struggles See No End

The Fed-induced correction began last week as bitcoin dumped from its latest all-time high of over $108,000 to $92,000 in just a few days. It managed to recover some ground last weekend and even spiked to $99,000, but that was short-lived, and the asset headed straight south on Monday.

After another slump toward $92,000, the bull took charge and pushed it to a multi-day peak of just under $100,000. However, this rally was halted quickly as well, and bitcoin started losing value once again in the following days.

After failing at $97,000 yesterday, the bears drove it down once more to under $94,000. Although it has been able to recover some ground since then and now trades above that line, BTC is still more than 2% down on the day.

Its market capitalization has dumped to $1.870 trillion on CG, and its dominance over the alts has retraced to 54.4%.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 28.12.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 28.12.2024. Source: TradingView

Alts in Red Only

The alternative coins are deep in red today as well. Ethereum was stopped on a few occasions at $3,500 and is down to $3,360 now. XRP is well below $2.2, while BNB fights to remain above $700. SOL, ADA, DOGE, and TON have produced losses of up to 3%.

Even more painful declines come from AVAX, SUI, LINK, DOT, and HBAR. In fact, Chainlink’s token has plummeted by nearly 10% and is deep beneath $22.

Most lower- and mid-cap alts are in a similar state as well. Consequently, the total crypto market cap has dumped by $150 billion in the past two days to just over $3.4 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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ChatGPT Weighs in: Can Ripple (XRP) Finally Hit New All-Time High in 2025?

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TL:DR;

  • XRP went on a wild ride at the end of 2024 but still came short when it was a matter of breaking above $3 and potentially reaching a new all-time high.
  • Will that finally change for the asset in 2025? Here’s ChatGPT’s answer.

Can XRP Break Above $3.4 in 2025?

It’s safe to say that the Trump-induced rally after his decisive win in the 2024 US presidential elections benefited some assets more than others. XRP stood quietly below $0.6 but on the hopes that the SEC lawsuit will finally be resolved during a more favorable administration and better regulations, it skyrocketed within several weeks to almost $3.

However, its run was halted there and Ripple’s native cross-border token even slipped below $2 on a couple of occasions. It now stands at around $2.15, which is more than 35% away from its January 7, 2018 all-time high of $3.4.

With just a few days left in 2024, it seems highly unlikely that this record will fall by January 1. But, what are XRP’s chances for a new all-time high in 2025? Well, ChatGPT’s answer was quite bullish, actually.

In the first part, the AI chatbot indicated that numerous analysts and forecasts envision XRP going to $4.5 in H1 of 2025, driven by “factors such as increased adoption and favorable regulatory develpoments.” Furthermore, the AI tool asserted that the asset could shot up to $7 if the aforementioed factors align with better market conditions and investor sentiment.

Nevertheless, it also had a second part to its answer, suggesting that “XRP may underperform in 2025 as investors might shift their focus to newer cryptocurrencies, potentially impacting its growth prospects.”

And Perplexity Says…?

ChatGPT’s rival also outlined XRP’s spectacular price growth at the end of 2024 and highlighted three probable scenarios for the asset for the next year. The conservative one sees XRP stabilizing between its current level and $3. The more optimistic one foresees a price rally to uncharted territory of $4.44 and $5.25.

The more outrageous prediction indicates a run toward $8 by the end of 2025. Such a price tag would put XRP’s market capitalization at roughly $500 billion, which would make it the second-largest by that metric if ETH’s stays the same.

Perplexity mentioned essentially the same factors that could propel a price rally for XRP, including better regulatory landscape in the US, bullish market sentiment across the entire crytpo fieled, and growing institutional adoption. The last part could be fastlaned if the upcoming SEC administration approves a Ripple ETF, just like it did with BTC and ETH in 2024.

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