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BlackRock has ‘50% chance’ of getting spot Bitcoin ETF approved: Analyst

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Investment management firm BlackRock has a 50% chance of getting its spot Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approved, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. 

Balchunas’ prediction comes following an observation made by Elliott Stein, a senior litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, who now pegs the chances of Grayscale winning its case against the SEC at 70%.

Balchunas explained that the SEC may look more favorably upon BlackRock’s ETF filing as a way to “save face” by allowing an ETF from a “trusted ‘adult’ TradFi” firm instead of Grayscale.

Ever since Grayscale appealed the United States Securities Exchange Commission’s decision to reject its application in June 2022, the two parties have engaged in back and forth legal filings in addition to oral testimony heard by three U.S. federal appellate court judges on March 7.

“Grayscale has a 70% chance of winning its lawsuit against the SEC over the company’s bid to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to a Bitcoin ETF, we believe.”

Stein added that Grayscale’s odds increased from 40% after the parties’ oral arguments reached completion because “all three judges on the panel appeared to side with Grayscale” based on their “lines of questioning,” Stein said.

Stein said Bloomberg expects a conclusion will be made by August.

Applications for Bitcoin ETFs have been a central focus point for the industry of late, with Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree and Valkyrie following the $10 trillion asset management firm BlackRock in line for the SEC’s approval.

If the SEC eventually approves the applications from the likes of JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon and Bank of America looking to offer similar services, the digital asset market would be exposed to firms with a combined $27 trillion in assets under management.

Related: Firms managing $27T in assets are embracing crypto: CoinShares CSO

While the decision of Grayscale’s case awaits, GBTC has surged over 134% in 2023 to $19.47, which marks its highest price since about May 13, 2022, according to Google Finance.

Additionally, the discount of GBTC’s share price when compared to its overall net-asset-value dropped to 31% on June 26, the lowest level recorded since Sept. 12 last year, according to data from YCharts. A lower discount rate on the trust means that investors sentiment towards the product may be turning more positive.

GBTC Discount to Net Asset Value (NAV). Source: Ycharts.

However, like much of the crypto market, GBTC is down over 65% from its all-time high price of $56.70.

Magazine: Bitcoin is on a collision course with ‘Net Zero’ promises

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) Hits a New ATH, But It’s Not What You Think

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TL;DR

  • One important BTC metric reached a new all-time high, highlighting strong adoption and optimism across investors.
  • Analysts see potential for BTC to hit nearly $120K, but with RSI nearing 70, a short-term correction could be looming.

Not the Peak the Bulls Expected

Despite the retreat after hitting a new historical peak of almost $112,000 on May 22, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has been booming in the past several months. Currently, it is worth just over $107,000, representing a 53% increase on a yearly basis.

The bull run coincides with the rising number of BTC holders, which, according to the crypto analytics platform, reached a new all-time high of 55.39 million. The development can be interpreted as an optimistic sign, as it indicates growing adoption and higher demand for the primary cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Price Targets

We mentioned BTC’s price rally witnessed in the last months, and now let’s see if there’s more room for growth, at least according to some popular analysts.

The X user Captain Faibik recently claimed that the valuation could surge to a new all-time high of over $113,000 should it break the resistance level of $105,700.

CryptoBullet chipped in, too. They noted BTC’s recent resurgence above $107,000, suggesting that the price “is ready to go higher” and set a target of $119,000.

On the other hand, investors should keep an eye on Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index, which neared overbought territory at almost 70. This signals that the asset’s valuation has increased too rapidly over a short period, which could be a precursor to a correction.

BTC RSI
BTC RSI, Source: Crypto Waves

Conversely, ratios below 30 are considered bullish, indicating that the price may be headed for a rally.

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Soars Above $107K as US and China Resume Trade Talks in London

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Bitcoin’s price has taken off in Europe’s afternoon trading session, pushing above $107,000 at the time of this writing.

The cryptocurrency was trading below $106,000 throughout the morning session but the bulls took control and pushed the price up, liquidating around $60 million worth of short positions in the past four hours alone.

BTCUSD_2025-06-09_14-19-56
Source: TradingView

As CryptoPotato reported on X, this coincided with another whale betting big on BTC on the popular decentralized exchange – Hyperliquid. The entity deposited over $5 million in USDC and instantly opened a long position with 20x leverage.

Of course, this probably doesn’t have much to do with the recent increase, which is likely connected to renewed expectations of a positive resolution between the US and China on tariffs.

The delegations of both countries have arrived in London and are about to commence talks to stabilize the fragile trade truce, according to Walter Bloomberg on X. The US team is led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, while the Chinese delegation is led by the Vice Premier He Lifeng.

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World Governments Are Issuing More Debt Than Ever, Will Bitcoin Benefit?

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“World governments are issuing more debt than ever,” commented the Kobeissi Letter over the weekend.

Global sovereign bond issuances hit a record $18 trillion last year, and $16 trillion of that debt was issued by developed countries.

Additionally, global government bond issuance has nearly doubled since 2019 on an unsustainable debt trajectory, it noted.

“Historically high public spending on social programs and defense, new tax and spending policies, as well as elevated interest rates, have been behind this massive surge.”

More Debt More Bonds

Government bonds are a way for nations to raise money by issuing interest-earning debt securities to finance public spending.

As debt surges, more of it needs to be refinanced, which means more bond buyers are needed, which puts pressure on the bond markets.

On June 6, the Financial Times reported that investor demand for long-term government debt is weakening, as evidenced by recent auctions of 20-year bonds in Japan and the US, which were poorly received, triggering sharp price drops and rising yields.

Prominent investors such as BlackRock’s Larry Fink and billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warned of unsustainable deficits, especially in the US, which is considering a $2.4 trillion debt increase, prompting fears of a path to insolvency.

Long-term bond yields serve as benchmarks for corporate debt, and higher yields will raise borrowing costs for businesses, risking growth. Additionally, a debt market dominated by hedge funds and short-term players may become more volatile.

Bitcoin The Beneficiary

Store-of-value assets like Bitcoin could benefit significantly from the unfolding global bond market strain and loss of faith in sovereign debt.

If government debt becomes less attractive due to high yields, poor auction performance, and credit rating downgrades, investors may seek alternatives to store capital.

Governments may also increasingly rely on inflation to erode the real value of debt, and BTC has often been considered an inflation hedge.

Being non-sovereign and decentralized, Bitcoin also offers a parallel financial system that is immune to political manipulation or debt monetization.

As countries and investors diversify away from US Treasuries and the dollar, Bitcoin could also be part of a new neutral reserve asset basket, especially in emerging markets.

The asset was holding steady at around $105,500 at the time of writing, having recovered from its Friday dip to $101,000.BTC has gained more than 50% over the past 12 months.

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