Bitcoin (BTC) has rolled back below $20,000 again as the capitulation in the market continues. The bottom of this bearish cycle is probably still a few months away.
Why BTC rolled back under $20,000 again
Bitcoin once again failed to hold above the key $20,000 psychological mark after the weekend rally and is trading down intraday as of this writing. There are still not enough buyers in the market to support and build on BTC’s growth.
Even long-term holders are now getting rid of BTC, according to a recent onchain survey by Glassnode analysts.
According to Glassnode, capitulation in the market is still ongoing amid ongoing extreme financial stress. Experts believe that before the market does find a steady bottom, pressure will persist and further declines in BTC are possible.
“While many signals point to the proximity of a bottom, the market still needs time and new pain to form a stable base. The woes of bitcoin investors are not over yet.”
Determining exactly when the market has bottomed out is a challenge even for a professional trader. Glassnode points out that miners continue to sell coins, a trend that has persisted over the past couple of months.
Meanwhile, in the previous bear market, the capitulation of miners lasted about four months. Therefore, it is likely that the capitulation will continue in Q3.
Experts also write that in the 2018/19 bear market, the drawdown lasted for about 15 months, and ultimately the scale of the BTC collapse from highs to lows was 84%.
Right now, the similar size of bitcoin’s drawdown is just over 71%. If we apply the scenario of the past to the current cycle, we should expect BTC to touch a bottom around $12,000 – $13,000 and then remain sideways until Q1 2023.
“One of the major outcomes of a prolonged bear market is a redistribution of wealth among the remaining participants.”
This month, we will be treated to a deluge of new macroeconomic data that may not be cheerful for investors. As a result, they may become catalysts for the final washout of positions on the crypto market.
On July 13, the US will publish a Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to the forecasts, it may slightly increase in June compared to May and amount to 8.7%.
This may put further pressure on the Fed, forcing it to tighten monetary policy more actively. Rising lending interest rates are traditionally a negative factor for risky assets, which now include cryptocurrencies.
That said, a number of analysts believe that the Fed will not be able to continue tightening in 2023. This could mean that despite the painful rest of 2022, the crypto market will soon find its feet. In this case, we can expect a potential recovery of cryptocurrencies, including BTC, next year.
“This indicates that whilst many bottom formation signals are in place, the market still requires an element of duration and time pain to establish a resilient bottom. Bitcoin investors are not out of the woods yet,” the analysts state.
BTC price holds 6% gains as Bitcoin battles for ‘crucial’ $28K support
Bitcoin (BTC) passing $28,000 hints at bullish sentiment, but reclaiming it for good is essential, analysis says.
In an X (formerly Twitter) post on Oct. 17, Yann Allemann and Jan Happel, co-founders of on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, described the $28,000 mark as a “critical milestone” for the BTC price.
Glassnode: “Keep an eye out” for $28,000
After snap volatility, which caused Bitcoin to hit $30,000 for the first time since August, the largest cryptocurrency has managed to preserve some of its gains.
For Allemann and Happel, the pair is now at a defining crossroads.
“The crypto market is hinged on BTC’s ability to breach and consistently maintain a value north of $28k,” part of their commentary stated.
$28,000 has formed a battleground ever since Bitcoin first crossed it in early 2021, and liquidity has traditionally surrounded it as bulls and bears fight to secure control over long-term trajectory.
Data from the trading suite DecenTrader, among others, confirms that the status quo remains despite recent BTC price moves, with $28,000 lying in a zone between major longs and shorts of varying leverage.
“While this pivotal milestone was momentarily attained on futures, the spot market price peaked at $27.98k earlier today. It’s evident just how crucial this price point is in the larger scheme,” Allemann and Happel added.
“The rapid movements and these price thresholds aren’t just numbers. They signify investor sentiment, market dynamics. Keep an eye out for the 28k level.”
Road to Bitcoin halving contested
As Cointelegraph reported, predictions over what the future will bring for Bitcoin both before and after its next block subsidy halving in April 2024 differ considerably.
In an interview last month, DecenTrader co-founder Filbfilb eyed BTC price galvanizing itself for upside during Q4, possibly reaching $46,000 by the halving.
Some well-known market participants, however, remain risk-averse. Among them, popular trader Crypto Tony and others are betting on a pre-halving return to $20,000 for a final local bottom.
“Many can scream they are long right now and caught that move, but if your not taking profit here at resistance your doing something wrong,” he told X subscribers about the recent surge.
“I personally will not be long unless we flip that $28,500 level into support.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Ripple job posting hints at possible IPO, XRP community says
Fintech payments company Ripple released a new job posting on Oct. 16 for a shareholder communications senior manager across multiple locations in and outside the United States. The job posting prompted many crypto enthusiasts to label it as an official hint about the company’s plans to go public.
The job posting outlines that the role will require direct communication with shareholders — a concept generally associated with publicly traded companies. The chosen candidate would be responsible for developing and implementing communication and relationship management strategies for “existing and prospective investors, current shareholders, and financial analysts.”
The job description emphasizes the candidate’s need to create strategic plans specifically suited for situations like “M&A [mergers and acquisitions], investments, liquidity events, and other high-impact moments.“
The role includes creating investor-focused materials like “presentations, fact sheets, case studies, and analyses“ to inform and educate potential investors about the company’s prospects and performance — a necessary component of the initial public offering (IPO) preparation process. The responsibilities of the post also include maintaining a shareholder database and managing routine communications like quarterly updates.
Many XRP (XRP) proponents and the pro-Ripple community on X (formerly Twitter) are referring to the job posting as a hint that there may be an IPO. Some key executives from the company have also alluded to the possibility that Ripple might go public but haven’t given any indication of timing.
Anyone notice the recent job openings at #Ripple?
The only reason you need a Shareholders Communication Manager.. is for an IPO.
— Chad Steingraber (@ChadSteingraber) October 16, 2023
The crypto-focused payments company has recently been in the limelight due to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit alleging XRP is a security. Ripple scored a major win in the lawsuit in July when a judge ruled that XRP is not a security in terms of sale on digital asset exchanges.
Key Ripple executives have claimed that even though the SEC lawsuit has cost them many business opportunities in the U.S., most of its remittance business lies outside America.
Banks’ crypto exposure must be disclosed — BIS’ Basel Committee
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a consultation paper on Oct. 17, proposing to make it compulsory for banks to disclose their crypto exposure.
The Basel Committee comprises central banks and financial authorities from 28 jurisdictions and is a forum for regulatory cooperation on banking supervisory matters. The latest consultation paper is based on the disclosure guidelines in the final prudential standard on how banks should handle their exposure to crypto assets released in December 2022.
The consultation paper aims to set a standardized “disclosure table and set of templates for banks’ crypto-asset exposures,” with a proposed implementation date of Jan. 1, 2025. The Basel Committee has opened the proposal for public comment until Jan. 31, 2024, after which the results will be published on its website.
Under the new proposed regulations, banks would be required to provide quantitative data on exposures to crypto assets and the corresponding capital and liquidity requirements. Banks would also be required to offer qualitative data on their activities linked to cryptocurrencies.
Additionally, banks would be required to offer information on the accounting classifications of their exposure to crypto assets and liabilities. In its proposal, the committee claimed that using a uniform disclosure format will encourage the application of market discipline and lessen information asymmetry between banks and market participants.
The committee also reviewed crypto assets and bank exposure in June. At the time, the committee didn’t delve deeply into the topic, mentioning only that it was focusing on permissionless blockchains and the eligibility criteria for “Group 1” stablecoins.
The BIS has been actively involved in crypto consultations and examining the regulatory aspect of decentralized technology. Recently, the BIS and a handful of European central banks published details of a concept to develop a system to track international flows of cryptocurrencies.
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